Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 280438
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY NORTHEAST IN EASTERN UTAH TODAY WITH
CENTER OF LOW NEAR UINTAH COUNTY-RIO BLANCO COUNTY BORDER AS OF
MID AFTERNOON TODAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
CONTINUED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA
TODAY...AND EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN SOME
AREAS WITH MINOR FLOODING. MOST STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN MOVING AT
AROUND 20 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE UINTAH BASIN WHERE UPPER
LOW CENTER IS SO CLOSE TO THAT AREA THAT THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE VERNAL AND MAESER AREA RESULTED IN
AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING TODAY. 0.68 AT KVEL AS OF 3 PM TODAY
...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KVEL.

GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FALLING AT TIMES AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE THE 12000 FOOT LEVEL. AND THIS SITUATION
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO OF HIGH DENSITY SNOW OR SLUSH. SPS
ISSUED TODAY INCLUDED THIS MENTION OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY BE PULLED AWAY WITH IT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY EXPECT MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO BE
IN NW COLORADO MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR CWA UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN CO
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

A MUCH DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH NOT TOTALLY DEVOID OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP FURTHER MONSOON MOISTURE AT BAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE BY TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND .50 TO 65 INCH THIS WEEKEND. ONE FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ZIP ACROSS MT/WY ON
FRIDAY...AND ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. MODELS THEN SHOW A LARGER PACIFIC TROUGH LUMBERING
EASTWARD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALSO ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON WIND ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THIS
TROUGH PASSES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AT THE MOMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING PRACTICALLY COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SHOWN WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WED WITH
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR/IFR
VSBY AND MVFR CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO. REMAINING TAF SITES FACE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

DRYING WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



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