Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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903
FXUS65 KGJT 102145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO UNDER NW FLOW ALONG ITS
EASTERN SIDE. A WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PASSING OVER AND
THROUGH THE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION FROM IT. AREAS OF
HAZE A FOG SHOULD RETURN TO THE VICINITY`S OF VERNAL...CANYONLAND
AIRPORT...CRAIG AND EAGLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BATTERED BY
PACIFIC ENERGY ON THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD STRONG
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT DOWNSTREAM WILL BE FROM MOISTURE
SURVIVING THE TRIP OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND FLOWING INTO THE
ROCKIES AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. STILL
EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO STAY TRAPPED IN THE GUNNISON AND PORTIONS
OF THE YAMPA RIVER BASINS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BE DEFORMED BY LATE FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY CROSSES THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM
NEAR THE CANADA/US BORDER. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FORCED EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE TOTALLY FLATTENED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER REGIME WITH ENOUGH
ENERGY IN THE FLOW TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK THE
RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND AGAIN AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...BRING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ACROSS OUR
CWA. A STRONGER MOISTURE TAP INTO THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT DEVELOPING.
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST ORGANIZATION OF PRECIPITATION. GOING INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME THE EXPANDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS. WOULD ASSUME MUCH OF THE SNOW PACK WILL BE
DWINDLING IN ELEVATIONS BELOW 6000 FEET AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THOUGH SOME HAZE WILL KEEP
VSBY BELOW 6 MILES AT KVEL UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. THE FOG AND HAZE
SHOULD RETURN TO KVEL...KEGE...KCNY AND KCAG VCNTYS FROM ABOUT 04Z
TO 16Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC



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