Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 250942
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
342 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND WILL HAVE WORKED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE. GUSTY
NW WINDS IN COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THERE
WILL BE IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE AND BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY IMPACT THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW WAS INITIALLY
LIMITED TO ABOVE 7000FT BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE NW CO MTNS THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS AND SNOW WILL END QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNSET.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST VALLEYS
TONIGHT INCLUDING MUCH OF SE UTAH AND SW TO FAR WEST CO WHERE
FRUIT TREES HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO NW CO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THAT MAY ASSIST WITH DRAINAGE
WINDS FOR AREAS IN THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS SUCH AS PALISADE AND
PAONIA. BUT VALLEY BOTTOMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FLEXES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. NW GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE BUT WILL BE
LIGHT. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH MOST AREAS BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SW U.S.. REMNANT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND END FRI
MORNING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BRINGING BACK WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT FLATTENING THE RIDGE A BIT AND DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE. A SMALL AMOUNT OF COOLING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY TROUGH MOVING TROUGH AZ TOWARD
MEXICO WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
SHOWS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SPLIT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THEN GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP RESULTING.
HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT...TENDING MORE TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING
WITH BRISK NW GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH 02Z...STRONG TURBULENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF KTEX...KCEZ...KDRO WITH NW GUSTS TO 35KT.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TAF SITES....KASE KEGE
KTEX...MAY HAVE SNOW IMPACTS UNTIL 17Z WITH CIGS BLO 050 AND VIS
BLO 5SM AT TIMES AND MTN TOPS OCNLY OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD VFR
(CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES) IS
EXPECTED AFTER 17Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



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