Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 192336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
436 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 132 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Little change to the current forecast as we remain trapped under
dry west to northwest flow aloft. Increase in high level cloud
cover expected overnight and through the day on Monday. This
should help to drag min temps up a few degrees from those
experienced this morning but still a few degrees below the warmer
MAV guidance. Monday will be a transitional day as we see warm air
advection increase with rising heights through the region.
Shortwave ridging cresting the Great Basin ridge will slide
southeast as the ridge stands-up late Monday and Tuesday. This
sends energy across our northern zones Monday night and Tuesday
morning with dirty northwest flow persisting for a few more days.
As moisture profile improves Monday evening, and favorable
northwest flow kicks in, expect snow showers to develop with light
accumulations. At this point, the NAM is the most aggressive
model generating a few pockets of 6+ inches of snow, with other
models coming in under 4 inches with this first wave. With WAA in
place, leaning toward the lighter numbers with generally 1 to 4
inches expected across the Park and Gore Ranges and over the Flat
Tops. Lighter amounts yet into the central mountains. Temperatures
will continue to undergo slow moderation through the short term
period with afternoon highs on Monday reaching the "normal" mark
for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Snow showers will continue across the northern mountains in
western Colorado under favorable orographic pattern. Storm total
snowfall will remain rather light and under highlight criteria.
Showers dissipate Tuesday evening although dirty northwest
(moisture contaminated) flow will remain in place. Any weak
ripples could trigger a round of light snow showers over the Park
and Gore ranges, although no significant snowfall is expected.
Pattern will be dry elsewhere with strong warming trend in store.
Temps by mid-week will be a solid 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Subtle drop in heights late Thursday and Friday may knock readings
back a bit, but values rebound over the weekend, promising more of
this dry and mild weather for late November. Looking out past this
period, latest CPC forecast trending toward wetter and cooler
weather beyond day 8 for the majority of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 436 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with some
passing high clouds Monday morning increasing in coverage by
Monday evening. Light terrain driven winds expected with some
breezy afternoon winds at the higher elevation TAF sites.




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