Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 272355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
455 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Analyzing the atmosphere at 500mb, we see the latest
shortwave trough being ejected out into the Plains this afternoon
as another wave rounds the base of the parent upper level trough.
This disturbance will drop into the Great Basin overnight. While
the bulk of the energy will remain over New Mexico, substantial
moisture and orographic lift will keep snow falling over the
higher terrain. Northwesterly flow aloft will allow precipitation
to favor the northern Colorado mountains with an additional 5-10
inches expected through early Monday evening. We will see breaks
in some areas this evening and tomorrow as we transition between
disturbances but this respite will be short-lived as yet another
shortwave moves into the region from the Pacific northwest Monday

In terms of highlights, have let the Winter Weather Advisories
drop in the southern valleys with this forecast package. Webcams
around the city of Durango and Pagosa Springs areas this afternoon
show that conditions have improved with just some wet roads. A few
light showers may linger this evening but accumulations and
impacts will be minimal. The rest of the highlights look good and
will continue through their respective expiration times.

Temperatures throughout the short-term period will continue to
be below normal as a cold air mass remains overhead. Daytime
highs will fluctuate a few degrees in response to breaks in cloud
cover but the small improvement will hardly be noticeable. Each
disturbance in this progressive pattern brings a reinforcing shot
of cold air - as evident by 700mb temperatures beginning near -3
deg C this afternoon and bottoming out near -15 deg C Monday

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Precipitation will generally favor areas north of I-70 Tuesday
with showers lingering along the Colorado Divide through early
Wednesday. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the work
week...a transition to west-northwesterly flow aloft will bring a
return to dry and near seasonal weather for the rest of Wednesday
and Thursday. Long-range models begin to diverge after this
period: the GFS shows a cutoff low dropping into the Great Basin
early Friday while the Euro keeps it as an open wave. Until we see
better model agreement, have gone ahead and kept POPs conservative
for the latter half of the week with a chance for some mountain


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 455 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Snow showers will continue across the region this evening with
mountains remaining obscured. A brief break in shower activity will
occur overnight for most TAF sites with exception of the mountains
where snow showers will linger overnight as one disturbance exits
and another approaches from the northwest. Shower activity will
pick up again Monday afternoon. CIGS and VSBY will drop below ILS
breakpoints at times in heavier snow showers with low CIGS
remaining throughout the period. Some areas of freezing fog are
also possible at the mountain TAF sites...KTEX and KASE.


CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Monday for COZ002-003-008-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ004-009-010-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Monday for COZ012-018-019.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ005.



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