Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 251008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
408 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder continue to drift
northeast this morning with a very slow eastward shift to the line
as heights flatten across the forecast area in response to
Pacific wave moving through. Showers will be diminishing in areal
coverage by mid-morning with activity tapering off this afternoon
as drier, cooler and more stable conditions settle in behind the
exiting wave.

High pressure quickly rebounds tonight with riding becoming
parked overhead for the next few days. This will bring a quick
jump back to well above normal temperatures by Wednesday afternoon
with overnight mins actually dropping a bit in the drier air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Dry and warm conditions will be in place Thursday as the ridge
rebounds back over the Intermountain West to the Canadian Rockies.
Once again the subtropical jet will usher in moisture in the
upstream portion of the ridge by Friday and an ejecting wave will
bring increasing cloudiness then scattered precipitation Friday
afternoon through Saturday. At the moment however this system does
not appear to be as organized or as moist but will still be warm
with high snow levels. The main piece of the western trough will
be forced inland by Sunday and is forecast by models to mainly
sweep across the northern states and only brush our region with
some lighter precipitation. There is a hint that beyond this the
weather pattern may become a bit more active for the mid
latitudes. Otherwise temperatures remain above seasonable


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Band of showers stretching from Moab northeast to Craig will be
shifting slowly east this morning. Showers will continue to impact
KCNY, KGJT and KRIL through 15z with activity spreading into the
KTEX, KASE and KEGE regions by mid-morning. Expect widespread CIGS
below ILS thresholds near and under the showers and local IFR to
MVFR conditions possible. Mountains will be obscured this morning,
but cigs will be lifting and showers will be decreasing in areal
coverage after 18z. Dry conditions expected back over the region
after 03z this evening with VFR weather expected through the
remainder of the night. The exception will be patchy fog in the
lower valleys developing after 06z tonight where heavier rainfall
amounts fell.




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