Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 110538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1138 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Updated aviation section

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Afternoon GOES 16 upper level water vapor imagery showed a
compact upper low across the Great Plains beginning to eject
north through the midwest. Along the west coast, an upper level
trough was digging south off the coast of Washington State.
Between the two troughs, a transient ridge of high pressure was
located over the Four Corners area. Visible satellite imagery
shows mostly clear skies with a few thin high clouds located
across northern Colorado and northeastern Utah. Mostly sunny skies
will persist this afternoon and evening as the ridge makes its
way to the east. Temperatures will be on a significant ramp up
into Wednesday, as warm southwesterly winds develop behind the
ridge and the west coast trough makes its way toward the area.
Winds Wednesday afternoon will be gusty from the southwest,
especially over northern portions of the area where the jet aloft
is stronger. Clouds will increase somewhat Wednesday night and
into Thursday, as slightly better moisture flows north out ahead
of the approaching trough.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Thursday looks like the windiest day of the week with a 500 mb
jet near 65 kts over most of the forecast area. Good momentum
transfer thanks to the mixing from the warming diurnal
temperatures, should generate some gusts in the 35 to 40 mph
range over the higher terrain. Things right now are falling short
of wind advisory criteria but winds will be gusty from the
southwest through the day. Some red flag conditions could develop
across SW colorado and SE Utah Thursday with the gusty winds and
RH dropping into the teens in some areas.

Friday, temperatures will cool some as a shortwave trough
embedded in the larger cyclonic circulation moves overhead. Cloud
cover is expected to increase late Friday as a second more robust
short wave approaches from the northwest. A few showers are
possible across northeast Utah and northern Colorado through the
afternoon and evening. Overall rain chances are not impressive
thanks to limited moisture. The most significant change from the
trough should be the introduction of cooler temperatures on
Saturday. The rest of the weekend and into early next week, dry
zonal flow takes over, keeping things rather benign for the
foreseeable future.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Light
upslope/downslope wind regimes will persist, with southwesterly
winds increasing at TAF sites across eastern Utah and extreme
western Colorado around 18z.




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