Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 110319
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
919 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

FEW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON THE 12Z GJT SOUNDING LOWERED TO 0.65 INCHES. THE NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDING OVER GJT LOWERS THAT PWAT TO LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES THU MORNING AND DOWN TO NEAR 0.25 INCHES THU NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE VERY STABLE WITH NO CAPE PROJECTED THROUGH
THU NIGHT AS WELL. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
PRODUCE MORE THAN SMALL POPCORN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
THU NIGHT...BUT THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS ON A COOL NOTE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY. THE AREAS THAT
WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS ON OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE ALONG OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BORDERS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS...WITH MUCH LESS COOLING OVER THE SOUTH. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. MET GUIDANCE SHOWS CRAIG DROPPING TO
28 DEGREES...WITH THE MAV AT 31F. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE JUST A
LITTLE WARMER AT GUNNISON. OTHER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST.

THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEGINNING ON THE WEEKEND AS A VERY LIGHT GRADIENT DOMINATES
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH. WITH TIME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY SPREAD TO OTHER MOUNTAINS...BUT THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FRONT WILL SLIP INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY
EVENING...USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC



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