Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 162050
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING WET OR BEING IMPACTED BY ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ADJACENT
TO THE SAN JUANS. FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE SHIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND FIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH
INITIAL STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW
STORM MOTION WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO MORE WIND
POTENTIAL AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES A BIT MORE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY CONVECTION DIMINISHES AGAIN BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER
CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. NO MAJOR SWINGS IN
TEMPS WITH PERSISTENCE A GOOD START THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS
EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE WEST
COAST...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STEERED NORTH AND
OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MAX SURGE OF 1 INCH PRECIP WATER BY TUESDAY AFTN.
COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF WEST COAST TROUGH AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECWMF DOING A LITTLE LEAP FROGGING OF
EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR SRN CA. THEY CANNOT DECIDE WHETHER TO HOLD THE LOW
BACK OR SEND IT EAST. WILL GO WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER RELATIVE MINIMUM CHC OF STORMS ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TUES-WED WEEK SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KDRO AND KPSO. GUSTY WINDS
TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. KTEX...KDRO AND KPSO WILL SEE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JDC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.