Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260910
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE UT AND CO BORDER SOUTHEAST OF
VERNAL THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AS THE LONG
CONTINUES ON THIS TRAJECTORY TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THAT WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO
THE AREA REINFORCING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PLATEAUS...BUY SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT
SNOW ON ROAD SURFACES INTO THE EVENING...SO ONLY MINOR ROAD
IMPACTS AREA EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS PASSES. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AREA EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ERODING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE LAS VEGAS VICINITY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS REMNANTS OF A WARM
FRONT SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THRU THURSDAY THE FRONT CONSOLIDATES
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST UT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW LIFTING NORTHWEST
AND DIRECTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY THEN MAY SURGE FURTHER WEST AGAIN SUNDAY AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 241 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THEN DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
PRECIP WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH
SCATTERED SHOWS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE FROM ABOUT 5800
FEET THIS MORNING TO ABOUT 6500 TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR AT KASE AND KTEX THIS
MORNING FROM PASSING SHOWERS...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGJT...KVEL...
KRIL AND KEGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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