Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 240554
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROKE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FUELED BY MODERATE LEVELS OF MOISTURE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH
PLUS OR MINUS 0.1 OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GOT STARTED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX WHICH MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST UTAH
TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
HAS RESULTED IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS BROKE OUT OVER THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS. IN CONTRAST...LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH JUST 0.45 OF AN INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REPORTED IN THE 12Z/GJT SOUNDING. CONSEQUENTLY
...AREAS NORTH OF A KGUC-KCNY LINE WERE QUIET THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY.

THE VORT MAX DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE LOSS OF THIS DYNAMIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
COOLING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT AND RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH AND WEST FROM NEW MEXICO
AND ARIZONA...INTO UTAH...THE GREAT BASIN...AND ALL THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE RIDGE AND ROTATE AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE LOW AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND WARMER TEMPS...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SIGNAL A
CHANGE TO WETTER CONDITIONS. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY TUE
EVENING IT WILL BE OVER NE AZ AND BEGIN INFLUENCING SE UT. FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM WED IT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN UT AND
MUCH OF WESTERN CO. THE MAIN STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN CO FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WED EVENING. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND DECREASED TEMPS
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN AGAIN. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
IN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX. SHORT LIVED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OR NEAR MOUNTAIN PEAKS FROM 18Z
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z MONDAY EVENING.

LOCAL HAZE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW 10SM...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER AVIATION
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF



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