Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 062011
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
211 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTED TO THE NE TODAY. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRAVELING FROM ENE TO WSW THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS HAVE BEEN HUGGING THE HILL BUT ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH OF THE RIDGES AND OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. PWAT OF 0.77 IN. WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS MEANS MOST
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
WITH MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN THE NARROW RAINSHAFTS BENEATH THESE
STORMS. NOT MUCH SHEAR ALOFT SO LITTLE OR NO HAIL IS EXPECTED AND
STORM SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN VARIETY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SMALL GAP IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SO THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL PWAT ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE MUCH
LOWER SO WILL EXPECT ANY DOWNTURN TO BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN US. LATEST
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST MIDWEEK AS
THEY DID YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH AT
THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUMP THIS
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO JET ALOFT WILL ALSO PERSIST...THOUGH
WEDNESDAY HAS SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AT H2 TO H3 LEVELS
WHICH MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS FOR
LONGER LIVED STORMS.

EXPECT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON INITIATIATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
02Z...FOCUSING OVER RIDGES AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AS THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS. THERE IS 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
KTEX...KASE...AND KDRO UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CIGS OR VSBY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC


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