Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 022241
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
441 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES OVER SW COLORADO WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB IN THE 8-10 G/KG RANGE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO GO WELL BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS...BUT SHEAR PROFILE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND STORM CELLS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD/WARM NIGHT
WITH SOME DESERT VALLEYS STAYING ABOVE 70F.

ACROSS THE NORTH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM...MOSTLY DRY
OVER THIS REGION AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NE UTAH AND THE
NW COLORADO CORNER. THIS AREA BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS SINCE STEERING
WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME SPEED AFTER QUITE A FEW
DAYS OF LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY FAR SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. COMBINED WITH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE
COULD BE SOME GOOD SOAKERS LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS TEND
TO DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED LATER.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MUGGINESS WILL ENSUE.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST MIDWEEK
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE SUNSET. KDRO AND
KTEX COULD BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING LANDING AND TAKEOFF CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE KEGE TO KASE CORRIDOR. THREATS OF
THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AFTER
SUNSET A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15


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