Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 170433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

The first of two waves was working across SW Colorado this
afternoon and will slowly shift east onto the plains by Wednesday.
Storms were favoring the southern and central mountains this
afternoon with the central mountain storms showing very little
motion due to greater upper divergence. Significant showers look
to favor the eastern portion of the San Juan Mountains this
evening. Valleys will see mainly gusty outflow winds from this
inverted-V environment, though lightning and light showers are
also possible. A few storms may persist overnight favoring the
central and south. Clouds will keep temperatures above normal.

The next slightly stronger trough works into the Great Basin on
Wednesday and into central Utah Wednesday night. Precipitable
water values increase to near 0.9 inch ahead of this trough and
this deeper moisture works into even the northern zones by
Wednesday evening. This may be our best chances of significant
rains. Of course the storms will also produce lightning and
localized gusty outflow winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

The Great Basin trough shears splits and shears on Thursday and
Friday in response to a stronger trough diving into the northern
Rockies. The upper flow veers to west then northwest bringing a
drying trend into the weekend. Thursday`s storms will have more
shear to work with, so stronger storms are possible mainly over
the central forecast area in the best mix of moisture and shear.

Low amplitude westerlies will continue over the northern Rockies
into early next week, producing a dry west flow. Subtropical
moisture will be suppressed to our south. So this weak monsoon
season is not producing up to average for this the wettest time of
year for the southern and central zones.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

A few showers will linger overnight with some light rain and gusty
winds but TAF sites are not expected to be impacted with VFR
conditions prevailing. Scattered storms will form after 18z
Wednesday over the higher terrain initially with some drifting off
and impacting the lower valleys after 20z. Erratic gusty outflow
winds will be the primary impacts with some storms capable of
brief moderate to heavy rain in the stronger storms, where
lowered cigs/vsby to brief MVFR are possible.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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