Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 221638
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

THE RECENT STRETCH OF CLEAR DAYS WILL END AS A FEW PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND SOME WEAK FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGH-BASED...THEREFORE THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
AREAS. A SLIGHT BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE UT/CO/WY BORDER ON MONDAY
BRINGING MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO
TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

CONFIDENCE ON THE INCREASE THAT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PICKING UP A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS GRADUALLY COMING TOGETHER WITH A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED OROGRAPHICS ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LINGERS
THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING WITH H7 WINDS SWINGING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS. STRONG CAA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK
PASSING THROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEL
OUTPUT GENERALLY AT TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ALONG THE PARK AND GORE RANGES NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
ATTM TO HOIST ANY SORT OF HIGHLIGHT.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT COMING INTO PLAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM CLIPS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR SWEEP BACK IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE SPRING ROLLER COASTER WITH VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS BY MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER JUMP
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CO AND UT
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. THESE WILL PRODUCT LITTLE RAIN BUT VIRGA
WILL BE COMMON...WITH DOWNDRAFT CAUSING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
NEAR 40 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z
THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...CAUSING LOCAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION.

THE BIG CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS.
THROUGHOUT MONDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH UTAH. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...LOCALLY STRONGER. STRONG RIDGETOP
WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE OVER
AND IN THE LEE OF RIDGES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...CC



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