Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241809
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

MOISTURE DRAGGING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF
RIFLE AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...INCLUDING VAIL PASS. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
BREAK EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WE RELOAD ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT
BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS DIGGING WAVE WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...PROMISING ANOTHER WINDY SPRING DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS COMING IN JUST A TAD UNDER THOSE EXPERIENCE
YESTERDAY. CONVECTIVE ELEMENT ALSO RETURNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN UTAH THEN DRIVING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE TRACK
IS A BIT MORE SOUTH VERSUS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SO A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT AND DEEPENS NEAR CHEYENNE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO MOUNTAIN BASES.
NAM SNOWFALL LIKELY OVERDONE AND FORECAST WEIGHED MORE TOWARD GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY
TO OUR HIGHER PEAKS BY LATE TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING THE SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEST WITH DIRTY SHRTWV RIDGE
SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. WITH MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING...SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF
NUDGING POPS UP A BIT IN THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPS
WILL BE JUMPING AROUND WITH GENERAL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN
NORMAL VALUES AS WE AVERAGE THINGS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHOWERS OVER NW COLORADO WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF VAIL
PASS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SW GRADIENT WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND MIX INTO THE VALLEYS BY LATE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. PEAK WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOK TO STAY UP ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. NO HIGHLIGHTS PLANNED ATTM BASED ON LATEST FUEL
STATUS REPORTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...JDC



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