Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 112018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
118 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 118 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Current satellite imagery is showing some scattered to broken
cloud cover across the north where a weak shortwave is moving
through Wyoming. The better forcing appears to be north of the
border, leaving us with just some isolated to scattered flurries
over the Elkhead mountains being reported. Don`t anticipate much
accumulation with any light snow tapering off by sunset as the
shortwave exits. Otherwise, dry conditions and mostly sunny skies
are prevailing with mild, above normal daytime temperatures.
Expect another cold night as skies clear allowing for sufficient
radiational cooling like the previous few nights.

Weak flat ridging will move into place Sunday with some clouds
increasing from the southwest as another weak shortwave moves
through. Don`t expect much of any precipitation as the low levels
continue to remain dry, with an increase in moisture mainly at the
mid and high levels, resulting in mid and high level cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Flat ridging will remain in place on Monday with breezy afternoon
conditions as southwest flow increases to 20 to 30 kts ahead of
another weak shortwave. This shortwave again looks to clip the
extreme north Tuesday and come through fairly dry, with little in
the way of precipitation. The best chance for some flurries would
be the Elkheads and northern Park range, but that`s about it, very
similar to the shortwave moving north of the area today. The next
best chance for precipitation and snow for the mountains would be
Thursday into Friday morning. The latest 12Z model guidance is
trending further north and drier with this system than previous
runs indicated. The models are also coming into better agreement
on the track with the northern and central Colorado divide
mountains favored for snowfall. However, the timing continues to
differ, although closer, with the ECMWF and Canadian both about 6
hours slower than the GFS. This is closer than the previous runs
indicating a 12 to 24 hour difference. Seems like the GFS is the
favored model as both the ECMWF and Canadian are slowly coming
around to the GFS solution.

A dirty ridge of high pressure builds in behind this system on
Friday into the weekend with dry conditions and passing high cloud
cover from the west. The increase in cloud cover, and dirty
nature of the ridge, is all due to Pacific moisture increasing
along the West Coast in southwest flow. Daytime temperatures look
to remain mild with above normal values through Wednesday, with a
return to near normal by the latter half of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

A very weak and dry disturbance is brushing the WY/UT/CO today,
but is expected to bring only some little cloud cover to the KSBS
area and potentially some flurries to the nearby mountain ranges.
Otherwise, surface winds should remain light with an occasional
gust to 20 kts at KTEX, KGUC and KEGE. Otherwise, calm and clear
conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.




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