Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 050439
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1039 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING THOUGH
STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. NEW STORMS ARE FORMING
HOWEVER AS PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHICS WORK
TOGETHER CAUSING PLENTY OF POP AND DROP STORMS TO FORM. BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE DOWN BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM SO MOST FIREWORK EVENTS SHOULDN`T BE
AFFECTED THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A QUICK CELL OR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. PWATS ON THE 12Z KGJT SOUNDING THIS MORNING WERE AT
0.74 INCH AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN 0.60 INCH AND 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE MIDLEVELS OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND UTAH...MAKING STRONG STORMS LESS LIKELY TO
INITIATE AND SUSTAIN IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL AND TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION AND WRN CO/ERN UT NESTLED MORE OR LESS UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WEAK EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A SUBTROPICAL PLUME
OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE PARTIALLY ABSORBED
INTO THE FLOW AROUND AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER OUR
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN INCREASE A BIT TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST DAY TO
DAY...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH /VICINITY OF SAN JUANS/ CLOSER
TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES. WITH THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND EXPECTED LIGHT STEERING FLOW...WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO
DEVELOPING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...NL



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