Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 230913
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
313 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

WIND IS THE BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH A 70 KT JET ALOFT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WHEN VIRGA
AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO 3 G/KG THIS AFTERNOON BUT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET WHICH MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING HIGH-BASED AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THIS EVENING. DID KEEP MOST OF NW COLORADO IN AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
WELL AS NE UTAH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SAN JUAN MTNS...BUT SOUTH OF THERE WILL VERY LIKELY STAY DRY.
BROAD AREA OF 200+ J/KG OF CAPE COMBINED WITH FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE STRIKES OF LIGHTNING ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO THIS EVENING SO ADDED ISO TSTORMS TO FORECAST.

JET SUPPORT WILL INCREASE TO 90 KT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...CREATING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR SNOWFALL AT VAIL
PASS...THE FLATTOP MTNS...AND THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. BY NOON
TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE SECOND COLDER PUSH OF AIR...INDICATED BY H7 TEMPS AND
DROPPING THICKNESS VALUES...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP COMMENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN THIS CASE...THE NORTHERN MTNS/FLATTOPS ARE FAVORED AND LOOK
TO SEE SOME SNOWFALL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OROGRAPHICS IN THE
PICTURE AIDING IN PRECIP PRODUCTION. SNOW LEVELS OF AROUND 8K FEET
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WX FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SEEING A BIT
MORE THAN THAT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS MT/WY AND CO. THIS ENERGY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP FAVORING THE SAME AREAS. THOSE AREAS NOT SEEING
PRECIP WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS THOUGH ERN UT AND FAR WRN CO WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RIDGING BUILDS IN PROMISING MORE
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL START REBOUNDING REACHING
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND SOME ISOLD
TSTORMS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTN AT SEVERAL TAF SITES AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. AS FAR AS STORMS ARE CONCERNED...THEY WILL LIKELY FIRE
AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z OR SO MAINLY N OF I-70. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED BUT THE OFF-CHANCE DOES EXIST.
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN TAFS.  AS FAR AS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE CONCERNED...DO NOT EXPECT AERODROMES TO DROP BELOW
VFR THOUGH SOME CLOUD BASES WILL DROP TO 10K...WITH A FEW SITES
POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW THAT AT TIMES. DUE TO KASE`S
LOCATION...WILL INCLUDE LLWS IN TAF AFTER 18Z THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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