Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 250505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM POP GRIDS TO SHOW THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY...AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ELK MOUNTAINS.
"COLDER" COLD FRONT (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO) SWEEPS SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A DECENT THERMAL PACKING FOR A FEW HOURS. QG
DIAGNOSTICS DID NOT REVEAL ANYTHING THAT WOULD BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PARK/GORE/ELK MOUNTAINS WILL IN THE
2-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE SPOTS MAY REACH 6 INCHES. COLD
FRONT MOVES TOO FAST TO GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS.

IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS (LIKE BLANDING...CORTEZ AND DURANGO). FOR
DURANGO...WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY (GUSTS 45+ MPH) BUT
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE IT WILL FALL SHORT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING FROM THE WEST...SO NO EXPECTATIONS THAT
SHOWERS WOULD BOOST WIND GUSTS TO ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE JET WILL SHIFT FROM A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION TO A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIP TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE WEST TO EAST JET AND IT IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING BUT DOES PICK UP AS THE JET BECOMES NORTH TO
SOUTH AND SUPPORTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS DEPICT HEAVIEST
SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
SHOWING A SOLID 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE NRN MTNS...FLATTOPS...AND
ABOUT 4 INCHES FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. DEBATED ISSUING A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES BUT EXPECT THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO BE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CHANCE STILL EXISTS HOWEVER AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AN ADVISORY IS ISSUED DURING LATER SHIFTS. FOR AREAS
AWAY FROM THE MTNS...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AS SOON AS NOON TOMORROW WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS. BY WED
NIGHT...JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW WILL BE OVER AS RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN.

IMPORTANT TO MENTION ALMOST ALL AREAS OF THE CWA WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT THE GRAND VALLEY
AND EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC ENERGY RIDGES OVER THE TOP
OF IT AND A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS
EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE.
THE FIRST POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AS THIS SYSTEM
MAY TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

DETERIORATING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE WRN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT (CREATING MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE) SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TAF
SITES IMPACTED WILL BE KASE WITH LOW CIGS/VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT KEGE...BUT CHANGE OVER
TO -SN WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS AFTER 09Z. KTEX HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GET SOME SNOW BETWEEN 09Z-15Z AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 15Z WITH
CLEARING FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD VFR (CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES) IS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. MOISTURE
WILL ERODE AND SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.

KDRO...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AFTER 15Z (AFTER DAYBREAK) ARE
EXPECTED...27025G35KT WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE IN THE EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC


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