Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 252335
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

THE UPPER LOW WAS WORKING INTO SW UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEAR
GJT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORTED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING SETTING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VIRGA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BRIEF
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
BEST FORCING ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS IN THE MORNING. A
SECOND COLDER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ALSO
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS
ARE AROUND 7KFT NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SUN BETWEEN HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WORKS ONTO
THE NE- KS PLAINS. SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT THEN JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

WEDNESDAY THE NEXT LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BRIEF RIDGING
HERE LIMITS SHOWERS TO AFTERNOON MAINLY MTN CONVECTION. THURSDAY
THE NEXT CLOSING LOW WORKS INTO WESTERN ARIZONA FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. AGAIN
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IS
REINFORCED ON SUNDAY AS MORE ENERGY DIGS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LINGERING TROUGH. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

BY NEXT MONDAY THIS SERIES OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE OVER
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER HALF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS...MUCH MORE THAN THAT IN THE GFS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON...AND
AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR PASSING SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE IMPACTING THE
KTEX TERMINAL THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE 00Z FORECAST WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
CENTER OF THIS STORM MOVES OVER COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO IMPACT
MANY OF THE FLIGHT TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 00Z FORECAST WITH
PROBABILITIES INCREASING OF LOW CIGS AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN NEW TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT


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