Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240539
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1139 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Quick update to the forecast to increase pops across southwest
Colorado where showers and embedded thunderstorms continue.
Reports of over an inch of rain coming in although no reports of
flooding problems. Rain has been falling much of the afternoon
near Cortez with over 1.5 inches so far at the KCEZ ASOS. More to
come and will continue to monitor waterways closely through this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

An upper level low pressure system continues to pass over the area
this afternoon. The visible satellite image shows this low
centered over roughly Northeastern Arizona, sliding into
Northwestern New Mexico. KGJX Doppler Radar is showing numerous
thunderstorms over Southeastern Utah and Southwestern Colorado
where a Flood Watch remains in affect through 1000 PM this
evening.

The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and move today`s low pressure system
northeast across Colorado overnight. Westerly flow will fill in
behind the low on Wednesday and will provide a lull in convective
activity through roughly Thursday. However, afternoon
thunderstorms will remain a possibility over areas of higher
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The ECMWF and GFS20 remain in good agreement through the forecast
period. Both models slide a trough of low pressure across the
Northern Rockies Friday night into Sunday which will drag a
boundary across our forecast area Friday night into Saturday,
spurring on another round of showers and thunderstorms. Beginning
Sunday high pressure begins to build over Utah and Colorado
ushering in a dry weather pattern through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Some nocturnal showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected overnight through Wednesday morning...mainly over
southwest Colorado. It`s unlikely that this activity will cause
ILS breakpoints to be met. In fact, VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the next 24 hours at area TAF sites, though
mountains may be obscured at times in rain and/or low clouds as
lingering moisture fuels scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...NL



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