Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 250558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1158 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED SO EXPECT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH LITTLE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES AS TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR PERSISTENCE AND RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL BEGIN A
TRAJECTORY INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY...ARRIVING TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTING FROM THE
4 CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SEEN QUITE WELL ON THE 310K-315K
SURFACES WHICH DRAG ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ALONG THE UTAH COLORADO
BORDER. THIS SURGE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER BY
SUNRISE. SOME UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY SURVIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH ON TUESDAY HAVE ONE MORE CHANCE AT STAYING ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALTER THINGS GOING INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

MODEL ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES SUGGEST THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN NORMAL. AS SEEN IN THE
PAST FEW EVENTS...MUCH HINGES ON THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION FOR
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT. IT APPEARS THE PUSH OF
MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUGGESTING HIGHS 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MANY PLACES. THE MAIN ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET AND PASSING WAVE IS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING MAINLY
MODERATE SHEAR OVER EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY EXIST BUT APPEARS THIS FOCUS IS MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS PUNCH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVECTION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRUSH NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AND EXPECT THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN
THIS REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME BUT LOOK TO STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED UNTIL 18Z WHEN ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA
FROM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. -TSRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEATHER
IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA ONGOING
ACROSS ERN UTAH AND SW COLORADO (ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA ELSEWHERE).
KTEX/KDRO TAF SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING A STORM MOVE
OVERHEAD (ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF TS).

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF



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