Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 190909
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
309 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

A transitory ridge will move across the area today. this will help
remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast area
and suppress s some of the convective development this afternoon
and evening. the next big pacific storm will move down the west
coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday. the
ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will allow
increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough along
the west coast. have increased wind speeds and gusts across the
board friday. the pacific storm will slowly move inland friday but
the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. the big story
will be increasing south to southwest winds friday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016

A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Isolated showers will continue over the portions of the colorado
northern and central mountains causing brief local mountain top
obscurations. moisture will continue over the area but instability
will be less so fewer thunderstorm will develop this afternoon and
evening and these should form mainly over the mountains. only
brief ils cigs are possible at kase and ktex.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CC



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