Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270451
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR FROM I-70
NORTHWARD TO THE WY BORDER. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
PAST SUNSET. SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO PLENTY OF
STORMS HAVE FIRED AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
A FEW CELLS WILL LIKELY ENTER EXTREME SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA
BRINGING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS
TREND WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS DOWN SOUTH AND LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TWO DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAS
LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ITS NE EDGE MOVING
INTO NW CO WAS INTERACTING WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. FURTHER SOUTH...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME AREA OF
PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING INTO SE UTAH THAT COULD DESTABILIZE
LATE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL VEER FROM S TO SW. STORM MOTION OF
SW25KTS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ANY ONE STORM.

SECOND STRONGER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH LIFTS NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL FAVOR NE
UTAH AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5 INCHES IN
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AT
15KFT DOES NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BEST
FORCING WORKS INTO THE PARK AND ELKHEAD MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLOW
VEERS TO W AND ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR FOR EASTERN UTAH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER OUR CWA EARLY IN THE
MORNING SHOULD THEN BE EAST OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW...3-4 DEGREES C
WARMER THAN TODAY AT H7...AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS EXCEPT OVER MOUNTAINS MAINLY
ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THEREFORE.. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES
2-4 DEGREES F TOMORROW IN MANY AREAS FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY COOLER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT
DUE TO COOLER AIRMASS...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY...THEN EAST OF OUR
CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER A SW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
THE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THEN EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK A PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EC MODEL...SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING UP TOWARDS OUR CWA
BY LATE MONDAY...AND IMPACTING OUR CWA THEREAFTER NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN THE SCATTERED AERIAL
COVERAGE PRESENTLY INDICATED IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA.

OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND THAT BEGINS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW H7 TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
1-2 DEGREES C WARMER ON SATURDAY. THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER STATIC UNTIL THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EASTWARD EAST OF LINE
EXTENDING FROM KVEL TO KBDG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TO AIRPORTS THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH ITS UNLIKELY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIVE CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN PRIOR
TO 18Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDDAY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER ADJACENT AIRPORTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JOE/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...NL


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