Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 231219
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
519 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALREADY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN FROM THE
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN SOUTH TO THE NM BORDER...WITH MORE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SNOW IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS FROM MOAB TO
GRAND JUNCTION TO EAGLE HAS BEEN MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WILL DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR MOAB AND THE GRAND FLAT WITH THIS PACKAGE AS THAT
ZONE HAS RECEIVED VERY LITTLE SNOW...WITH NOT MUCH MORE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS GOING FOR THE COLORADO I-70
CORRIDOR AS THOSE ZONES HAVE RECEIVED ENOUGH TO AFFECT
TRAVEL...AND MODEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO END THE WARNINGS EARLY FOR THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND THE FLATTOPS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE END
TIMING OF THESE I-70 CORRIDOR VALLEY ZONES WHICH EXPIRE AT NOON.

ON THE FLIP SIDE HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING FOR UT ZONE 29 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR OTHER
SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO ZONES. ALL OF SOUTHEAST UT AND
SOUTHWEST CO FROM AROUND THE LA SAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE GRAND MESA AND THE WEST ELKS...AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE NM/AZ BORDERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE GUN
TODAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION. A CONVERGENT ZONE HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND BLANDING TO
MONTROSE AND WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS
ALL THE RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA AND KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ENOUGH COOLING WILL HAVE OCCURRED
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THAT I DO NOT EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE OVER...OR
EVEN MIX WITH TO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN THE
LOWEST SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUE
WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. HOWEVER SNOW INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE IS MOSTLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE AMOUNTS
THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

SNOW FINALLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LATEST STORM IS
FORCED TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATER
IN THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST SWEEPS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE AND
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. A BIT DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE
DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT BUT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE PATTERN
HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE...WETTER...AND COOLER REGIME.
IN FACT...FOR THOSE ALREADY DIGGING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS A BIT SKETCHY AT THIS
POINT AS GFS AND EC NOT ENTIRELY ON THE SAME PAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT ON AVIATION SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KPUC-KSBS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF -RASN
FROM 20Z TO 00Z/TUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH. KVEL SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z/TUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ009>012-
     014-017>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-007-008-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ006.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT



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