Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 262321
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
521 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLEX INTO THIS
FORECAST AREA WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN SAN JUANS.
OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS CAPPING
CONVECTION.

THE ISOLATED SAN JUAN CELLS WILL COLLAPSE QUICKLY AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET THE HEAT WILL BREAK. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTH...ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES.

MOISTURE CONTENT SLOWLY STARTS INCREASING SATURDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM. THE NAM12 IS HIGHLIGHTING
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT
CAUSING CONVECTION...AND THUS...THE INCREASE IN PRECIP. FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT SINCE CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE WORKED ON BY UPLIFT FROM MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40MPH OR
SO. BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIP WILL END AS TEMPS DROP TO NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

YOU CAN SAY ONE THING ABOUT OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK...IT`LL
BE CONSISTENT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER UT FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DUE TO THE JET STREAM. WITH MINIMAL DAY TO DAY VARIATION AT
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LEVEL...THE MODELS PRODUCE ALMOST EXACTLY THE
SAME FORECASTS FOR OUR CWA EACH DAY. THAT IS...DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WILL CAUSE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS FAVOR SAN
JUANS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THIS REGIME
THOUGH MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHEN DOES THIS END? POSSIBLY NEXT FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. UNTIL
THEN...HOT...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH VALLEYS GENERALLY
REMAINING DRY AND THE MTNS SEEING CONVECTION. THE HEAT CONTINUES
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S IN THE VALLEYS AND
COOLER...OBVIOUSLY...FOR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY BUT KTEX IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE NEARBY STORMS. GUSTS TO 20KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER AIRPORT AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/TOM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.