Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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652
FXUS65 KGJT 232321
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
521 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

An upper level low pressure system continues to pass over the area
this afternoon. The visible satellite image shows this low
centered over roughly Northeastern Arizona, sliding into
Northwestern New Mexico. KGJX Doppler Radar is showing numerous
thunderstorms over Southeastern Utah and Southwestern Colorado
where a Flood Watch remains in affect through 1000 PM this
evening.

The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and move today`s low pressure system
northeast across Colorado overnight. Westerly flow will fill in
behind the low on Wednesday and will provide a lull in convective
activity through roughly Thursday. However, afternoon
thunderstorms will remain a possibility over areas of higher
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The ECMWF and GFS20 remain in good agreement through the forecast
period. Both models slide a trough of low pressure across the
Northern Rockies Friday night into Sunday which will drag a
boundary across our forecast area Friday night into Saturday,
spurring on another round of showers and thunderstorms. Beginning
Sunday high pressure begins to build over Utah and Colorado
ushering in a dry weather pattern through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Moisture rotating northward around a low pressure system near the
Four Corners will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to
eastern Utah and western Colorado through tonight. Locally heavy
rain will fall with the stronger thunderstorms with gusty outflow
winds to 40 mph expected. Expect areas of ils cigs with mountains
becoming obscured as the showers pass through. Activity is
expected to diminish after 12z wednesday morning, but increase
once again by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ011-
     017>023.

UT...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-
     027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...JDC



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