Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 040506
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1006 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

CLOUDS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

SOME LOW BASED OROGRAPHIC/COLD ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. MINIMUMS AT
SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT THIS MORNING.

WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSITORY WAVE CROSSING THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A VERY TEMPORARY STOPPAGE TO THE LIGHT
SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE SLOWED THIS JUST SLIGHTLY AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
THIS STORM WAITS TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS STORM IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND HAS SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO GET WRUNG
OUT AS THE STORM WEAKENS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE ROCKIES.
SNOW RATIOS APPEAR TO BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO AT 17:1 WHICH COULD
LEAD TO 6 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVEL BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE ABILITY FOR
WIND TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND THERE COULD BE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES STAY WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AND WAA TAKING HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
LAST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY/S WAVE CONTINUES A WEAKENING TREND IN THE MODELS
AND NOW FLURRIES MIGHT BE ALL THAT HAPPENS SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SO A GENERAL SLOW WARMING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL SLOPES WILL EXPERIENCE THIS WARMING
SOONER THAN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS AND BASINS AS WEAK INVERSIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN STATES LOOKS TO DRIVE ANY MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND WITH THE SUN
ELEVATION INCREASING...LOW LEVEL SNOW PACK SHOULD BEGIN TO MELT AT
A BETTER PACE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WE
MAY BE CATCHING SEASONAL HIGHS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW HUGGING THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES WILL
DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 08Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AFTER
ABOUT 19Z MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH
AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW INCREASING. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COLORADO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING. KASE AND
KEGE SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC


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