Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 191705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A SPLITTING AND WEAKENING PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING INLAND.
OTHER THAN SOME TWEAKING OF THE SKY/CLOUD GRIDS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REACH OUR WESTERN EDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE RIDGE...AND FIGHTING AGAINST IT...A PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BY THE TIME THIS DISTURBANCE REACHES
THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND FOR
US WILL MOSTLY RESULT IN INCREASED OR THICKENING CLOUDS. AT MOST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. THEREFORE IN
SPITE OF THE CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TUE/S READINGS. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW SLACKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

ENERGY FROM THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SPLITS BEFORE IT REACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE PROGGED TRACK IS THAT THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS
ACROSS ARIZONA.

AS THE SPLIT TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND HELPS ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STRONG MOIST PACIFIC WAVES
WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES THE NORM AND CONTINUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO SHORT SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM SATURDAYS SHORT
WAVE WITH 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEEDING 3 G/KG...COMBINED
WITH QG AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ON
NORTHWEST FACING ASPECTS (LIKE ROUTT COUNTY AND VAIL...BUT
POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS TELLURIDE). SUBSEQUENT SHORT
WAVES WILL NOT HAVE THE SAME MOISTURE CONTENT...BUT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED MOUNTAIN REGIMES IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE SNOW MAY NOT BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NRN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
PROMISES TO BE VERY ACTIVE AND LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT WINTER HAS
ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGH AND SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT APPROACHES BY 12Z THU. VFR
CONDITIONS AER EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THU.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAD



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