Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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559
FXUS65 KGJT 081638
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
938 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SO WINDS DECREASE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES THERE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARROW RIVER CORRIDORS...BUT
WILL GENERALLY WILL NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY
...WARMING WILL LAG IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS PERSIST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND WEATHER REMAINS UNEVENTFUL FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...00Z/GFS RUN SPINS OFF A WEAK LOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH THREATENS SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE 06Z/GFS RUN THIS FEATURE IS CONSPICUOUSLY
ABSENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 938 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

ANY CIGS TODAY WILL BE CREATED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AOA 20KFT
AGL. VISBY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CNY AND VEL AREAS. WITH INVERSIONS STAYING IN
PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BUT OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NZ
AVIATION...TGJT



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