Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 040329
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1029 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
THE DEPARTING LOW THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL CAA HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RAMP UP LIKELY DUE TO
RATHER LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3000 FT. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 7000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU OUR CWA.
UPSTREAM KMQT RADAR LOOP HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING..WHICH SUPPORTS THE NOTION THAT
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. STILL...RAISING OF THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN RATHER LATE...SO ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (I.E. AROUND AN INCH OR
SO) FOR OUR TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOWBELT AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...SMALL SNOW ACCUMS IN THE NW LOWER MI
SNOWBELTS.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM LAKE HURON. N TO NW
SURFACE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION ARE JUST STARTING TO
KICK IN...AND WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING. POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED 500MB SHORTWAVE IS
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MI PRESENTLY...PRODUCING MOSTLY SNOW AT
THIS POINT. LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP TO REPLACE THIS AS IT
DEPARTS. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

INITIAL COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF MI. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI PRESENTLY...AND WILL EXIT THE
SAGINAW BAY REGION TOWARD 00Z. TERTIARY COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON/EASTERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
1000-850MB WILL TEND TO BACK AS THE LATTER HAPPENS OVERNIGHT...FROM
NNW TO NW ON SUPERIOR...AND FROM NW TO WNW ON LAKE MI.

PRECIP IS AT IT/S MOST WIDESPREAD RIGHT ABOUT NOW. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL
STEADILY DROP INTO THE MID MINUS TEENS C ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LAKES
BY MORNING...THOUGH THAT STILL LEAVES INSTABILITY IN THE /OK BUT
NOT GREAT/ CATEGORY FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. AND AS INSTABILITY
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE LATE...850-700MB MOISTURE WILL BE
EXITING.

GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE FETCH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA TO AROUND AN INCH. THE NW LOWER
SNOWBELTS WILL DO SOMEWHAT BETTER...AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE BOYNE
CITY-KALKASKA-GRAYLING TRIANGLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN EASTERN UPPER...AND IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AT UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WITH OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN -12C AND -16C THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C
AND -12C ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM
THE MID 20S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY...
WHILE A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF WEAK
SFC FEATURES (CLIPPERS) WILL PASS OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTN.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE OF A FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACRS NRN MI. 850MB
TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DROP TO BETWEEN -12C AND -16C IN THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER LAKE INFLUENCES LESSEN SATURDAY...AS MID LVL
TEMPS MODERATE (850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -10C). SFC-850MB WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST WEAK CLIPPER. SFC-850MB WINDS
TREND BACK WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE CLIPPER EXITS EAST OF THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS MAINLY AROUND 6K FT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS DO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 3K FT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

OVERALL WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TEND WITH NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO WEST FLOW SNOW BELT
REGIONS OF THE CWA. THE CHANCE OF SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CLIPPER SWEEPING OVER THE NRN
LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS 500MB
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS. THE PERIOD BEGINS
IN THE SPACE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WHAT COULD BE A BRIEF QUIET
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BUT THEN THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS...AND A LOW SLOWLY DROPS DOWN
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME WEAK
BLOCKING OFF THE EAST COAST...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE IT`S TIME
MOVING THROUGH...WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES IN THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE MAY THEN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LAKE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER THE
SYSTEM FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA.

AFTER FLIRTING WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WE`LL DROP BACK INTO A COOLER REGIME FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES FROM PLN TO TVC TO MBL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH APN AS WELL. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. NW WINDS GUSTING TO
20 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING QUICKLY NE AWAY FROM LAKE HURON. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...AND WILL BE
BLUSTERY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. RELATIVELY
LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...WILL BACK SW DURING THE DAY...AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THU NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JZ


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