Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260639
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
239 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL INCH CLOSER TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SETTLING DOWN WHILE SKIES BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...WITH THESE FEATURES PROVIDING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND BY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND COOLER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER AND SFC LOWS ARE DROPPING ESE THROUGH QUEBEC WITH NRN MICHIGAN
IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN A PRETTY DRY (0.32"
PWAT) ATMOSPHERE...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE LAKES TO REALLY START KICKING
OFF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAXIMA HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IT DRAWING DOWN SOME COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR. ALL THIS IS GOING ON BEHIND YESTERDAYS DEPARTED COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS NOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BACK THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...LATEST RTMA ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NE/KS...AHEAD OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT NO
RAINFALL ATTM.

SKIES REMAINED CLEAR ACROSS NRN LOWER WITH HINTS OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TRYING TO GET KICKED OFF ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WHITEFISH BAY.
GUSTY WINDS KEEPING THE BL MIXED HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST. IN
IT`S PLACE...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGING WILL TAKE IT`S PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK. H9 TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF TO +1C TO +4C...JUST SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
TO GENERATE. BATTLING THIS...WILL BE AN OVERALL DRYING AIR MASS.
CORE OF DRIEST AIR IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WILL BE CROSSING US BY MID
DAY. THOUGHT OF THIS FORECAST...TIED TO THE MOST TROUBLE
(CLOUDS)...IS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE HELPED BY THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT
INVERSION...HELPING TO TRAP ADDED MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES. IT
SHOULDN`T TAKE TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO GET THIS DONE DUE TO HOW SHALLOW
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE (AROUND 3KFT)...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR DAYTIME MIXING TO THWART THE PROCESS (ALTHOUGH
NOT ENTIRELY SURE ABOUT THIS). WILL GO WITH CLOUDS IN THE WNW/NW
REGIMES (MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE) AND ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN EASTERN UPPER (30 MPH AGAIN...MAYBE 20 MPH FAR SOUTHERN
CWA). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND MIDDLE 50S
DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF NE LOWER.

AM EXPECTING THESE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THEN START TO ERODE AS WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULT IN LESS OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND LESS
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES. WHILE THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD ERODES...WE
WILL LIKELY BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS SFC
LOW HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT...REACHING THE
DAKOTAS BY 12Z...AND WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO DRAW THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BACK INTO THE IL/WI BORDER THROUGH OHIO. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ADVECT NORTHWARD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH A NICE
LITTLE H8 LLJ CORE STRETCHING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. BELIEVE ALL OF
THIS FORCING IS GOING TO WIND UP JUST A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH OF US FOR
ANY GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. LOWERED CHANCES
FOR SEEING RAIN TO JUST THE SW CWA...AND ONLY A 30% CHANCE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THINKING OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS A BRIEF SPELL OF MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY IS REPLACED BY THE APPROACH OF DEEP UPPER TROUGHING...
CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY. REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP CARVE OUT AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD MIDWEEK AS VERY STRONG GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGHING
EMERGES...OF COURSE LEADING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON IN SPOTS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF MOST CHANGEABLE WEATHER - NOT TOO
ATYPICAL FOR LATE OCTOBER OF COURSE. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ALOFT WILL KICK AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWATS RISING IN EXCESS OF 1") DELIVERING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS FOR MANY AREAS. THINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND JUST A
HAIR SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SAID MOISTURE/FORCING BUT NO DOUBT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINS ON MONDAY...CUTTING OFF FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING...WITH
MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE TAKING THE PLACE OF STEADIER RAINS. THAT SETUP
MAY ALSO FAVOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS PARCELS ARE
POTENTIALLY LIFTED FROM AROUND 850MB...HELPED ALONG BY STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARRIVING AFTER 16Z. AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...
CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ACTUAL
SURFACE WARM FRONT GETS HUNG UP DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. THAT IDEA
ARGUES THAT MANY SPOTS NORTH OF M-72 MAY GET STUCK IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BACKED EASTERLY FLOW/RAIN/CLOUDS.

SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POTENTIAL CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS
ALSO TRENDED FASTER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. QUICK NORTHWARD PUSH
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BOOST TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
MANY AREAS...BEFORE A NICE PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE SIMPLE FACT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY COOL LOW
LEVEL PROFILES FOR SOME LAKE HELP (H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND 1C FOR THE
AFTERNOON) ARGUES THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT MANY AREAS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AND ONGOING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER BLUSTERY
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
SUB-850MB LAYER...WITH TEMPS FALLING FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A QUITE MILD START FOR EASTERN
LOCALES.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NOT EXACTLY STELLAR CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR ANY PERIOD INTO LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE BASIC GIST APPEARS TO BE RAPID (BUT BRIEF)
AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING...ALLOWING FOR A CHUNK OF
SOME QUITE COLD AIR ALOFT TO BREAK OFF AND HEAD SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/EASTERN STATES AS SHARP UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS. GFS
HAS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THIS IDEA OF LATE...AS IT KEEPS KICKING
THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGHING EAST TOO FAST BASED ON CLIMO/
SETUP (A SORT OF KNOWN BIAS OVER THE YEARS). THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLES ON
THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN RATHER STEADFAST (WITH SOME DRIFTING AT
TIMES) ON THE IDEA OF SHARP UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE REGION
TOWARD FRIDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE WEAKER
SHORTWAVES INTO LATE WEEK SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT WEAK FLOW AFTER WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD ARGUES THINGS MAY BE SPOTTY AT BEST.
AXIS OF SHARPER HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY (SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE) MAY HELP
SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES...WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRECIP CHANCE UP THIS WAY. THEN...AS MUCH COLDER AIR
RAPIDLY SPILLS IN...CAN FORESEE OF COURSE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS (PROBABLY JUST ALL SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS) AS H8 TEMPS DIVE
TOWARD -10C OR LOWER...MAYBE JUST IN TIME TO DELIVER A
WINDY...COLD...AND IN SOME SPOTS WHITE HALLOWEEN. AGAIN...PLENTY OF
TIME TO LET ALL OF THIS UNFOLD...AND WE NEED TO GET THROUGH OUR
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM FIRST...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHER POPS AND SNOW
WORDING INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAINLY VFR...THOUGH SOME RISK OF MVFR CIGS AT PLN SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ESE FROM MN/IOWA...REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE HIGH REMAINS RATHER
DRY. APN/PLN WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF STRATO-CU. THIS WILL BE IN
THE 3-4K FT RANGE...WITH PLN IN PARTICULAR AT RISK OF JUST DIPPING
INTO MVFR TERRITORY...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE.

SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE...THOUGH NOT SO MUCH AS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS GO LIGHT LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...ADVISORY AND GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE...

COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR GUSTY
ADVISORY AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEARSHORES.
THIS GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN UP THROUGH THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GALES...ON WHITEFISH BAY AND PRESQUE
ISLE...WILL LIKELY BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ENDING AROUND MANISTEE THIS MORNING...THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS
WHITEFISH BAY/PRESQUE ISLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LIGHTER
WINDS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THEN...SOUTHERLY/SE WINDS RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND STRENGTH OF WINDS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT
SOME ADVISORIES ARE PROBABLY LIKELY. BEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS WILL BE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347-348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-346-
     349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMD






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