Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER 19Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN
AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



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