Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 301919
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
319 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AS WELL. DEFORMATION AXIS NOW OVER THE
NE TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA HAS PRODUCED ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE NMRS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ACB TO HTL TO GLADWIN. WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO PROVIDING SOME LEVEL OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...HOLDING THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST
INLAND ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT. EXPECT NMRS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE ABOVE OUTLINED AREA THRU THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING...SHOWING A MARKED DIMINISHING TREND BY SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DWINDLING UPPER SUPPORT AS THE
DEFORMATION AXIS DEPARTS TO THE NE. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND WEAK WIND FIELDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY
CHANCES OF SVR STORMS...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BRING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME LIGHTNING.

LATEST IR AND VSBL SATELLITE TRENDS COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWS
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ROTATING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS. MID LEVELS SHOULD
DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING...BUT AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SIMPLY SPREAD OUT UNDER THE BUILDING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...SERVING TO REINFORCE OUR LOW OVC DECK...AS WELL AS
LIKELY LOWER CIGS AND LEND TO DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG. HAVE ADDED SOME
FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR
MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WEAK CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LEND TO A COOL NIGHT DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 50S IN FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES.

(7/1)WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT
WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST, THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH IT WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY, IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE. THE 850 MB MOISTURE IS CONTAINED SOUTH OF M-32 AND EAST OF
I-75, GENERALLY, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHOWER WOULD POP UP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE
COUNTIES CONTINUING. HOWEVER, DURING THE NIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MOISTURE PUSHES OUT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA,
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES TAKE A BREAK. SO DRY OVERNIGHT.

(7/2)THURSDAY...THE HIGH STAYS OVER THE FORECAST AREA, THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO TRY TO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH MOISTURE (500 MB SHORT), PUSHING INTO E UPPER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT ONLY AFFECTS
UPPER MICHIGAN.

(7/3)FRIDAY...IT WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE, BUT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF STRETCHES OUT THE
SHORTWAVE, AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE FAIRLY THIN. SO IT PRODUCES RAIN
TO THE NORTH IN ONTARIO. THINK THAT WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY TO BE THE
CASE. SO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO TREND DRIER OVER THE
WEEKEND...MATCHING WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL SHAPING UP TO BE
A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS MID 70S FOR THE U.P. AND UPPER 70S
IN NORTHERN LOWER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR
HUDSON BAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TRACKING THRU MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN AND APN).
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME THE RULE BY LATE
EVENING AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
LENDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
TO LOW VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NW WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER ERN UPR MICHIGAN...THE STRAITS AREA
AND PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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