Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281413
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO HUGE UPDATES REQUIRED THIS LATE MORNING AS THE GOING FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. DID KICK UP CLOUD COVER INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND AREAS NORTH OF M-32 INTO THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOW A NICE BATCH OF ALTOCUMULUS
WORKING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...TIED TO A THIN PLUME OF (OBVIOUSLY)
BETTER MOISTURE BUT STEEPER 700-600MB LAPSE RATES PER CURRENT RAP
FORECAST RAOBS. BASED ON WIND TRAJECTORIES...WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT
STUFF SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND LIKELY FADING AS IT DOES ENCOUNTER
NOTABLY DRIER AIR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...THOUGH HISTORY WITH SUCH
PESKY CLOUD DECKS WOULD INDICATE WE MAY DEAL WITH ANOTHER "FLARE-
UP" OR TWO BEFORE THINGS REALLY THIN OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY THAT TIME...SHOULD SEE THICKER CIRRUS WORKING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND HAVE RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS AFTER
21Z...SUCH THAT MANY OF THOSE SPOTS WILL LIKELY BE JUST CLOUDY BY
SUNSET...WITH THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE.

FROM A RAIN PERSPECTIVE...CONTINUE TO PREFER A DRY DAY WITH
BASICALLY NIL APPRECIABLE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...THOUGH PER
CURRENT THOUGHTS...MAY WELL HAVE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS (AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTH TOO) INTO
TONIGHT. GOING HIGHS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S LOOK FINE
AT THIS POINT. ALL IN ALL...NOT A BAD DAY TO END THE WORK WEEK.
ENJOY!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...DECOUPLED
FROM THE SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT COOLING HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S IN MOST COMMUNITIES. UPSTREAM...IN THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WAS
WORKING WITH A LLJ AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER POCKET
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS IN SRN MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE
ILL-DEFINED WAVE ALOFT/SFC LOW...AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...WITH SOME RELATIVELY
MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACK OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS OCCURRING WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY LIFTS IN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND
THE MORE ILL-DEFINED WAVE FROM MANITOBA CROSSES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE EXACT TRACK...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF FORCING WITH BOTH WAVES
IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR. ONE AREA THAT IS PINPOINTED FOR THE BEST
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA WITH A LLJ IS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN/SRN LK
MICHIGAN...AND THAT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
WHAT WE REALLY HAVE IS A BROAD REGION OF WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT. WILL JUST KEEP CHANCY POPS
IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAYBE BEING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHERE THE NRN WAVE AT LEAST HAS SOME MORE
RESPECTABLE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...INCLUDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND THE TIMING OF WHEN THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ZONES SUNDAY MORNING (THOUGH LATEST ECMWF WOULD LINGER POPS ALL
DAY). INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THOUGH SO WILL REMOVE THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE
AND A LITTLE WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TROUGHING IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST YIELDING INCREASING RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. ALL THE WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC (INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH THIS PATTERN LIKELY HOLDING ON INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY. UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND DRAG LOWERING CLOUDS AND SOME RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH...BEFORE COMING IN
OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LIFTS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RE=ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HOT WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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