Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 110733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
333 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...Rain today south...

High impact weather potential...none.

Mature 1012mb surface low is along the central portion of the IL/IN
border. Associated rain swath north of the low has, as expected,
marched into southern portions of this forecast area. More
widespread rain is found near/south of M-55, with patchier rain
to the north. The low will move slowly east across IN/OH today,
then stall and wither away tonight. Associated precip
coverage/timing trends are the main concern.

F-gen banding along the outer edge of the precip shield is subtle
but present. This should help maintain a fairly tight northern edge
to the low- and mid-level moisture gradient. (Note that GLR and APN
both still have no clouds at or below 12k ft.) Plenty of cool/dry
air is feeding off of high pressure just east of Superior, thanks to
e/ne 1000-850mb winds. Precip will very much struggle to get as far
north as M-32. Better precip rates (presently south of CAD) will
slowly move east with time this morning, and by midday will be in
the OSC/Tawas/Au Gres area before exiting to the east. Expect
precip to have ended in the MBL/CAD areas by then. Will be
refining/adding detail to precip trends today, in particular
keeping precip going longer in the Saginaw Bay area. Showers may
not totally exit there until 5-7pm.

No such issues in the north, where eastern upper MI will see plenty
of sunshine today (albeit filtered by cirrus early on). The day will
eventually become sunnier across far northern and parts of nw lower
MI as well, especially this afternoon. Max temps in most places will
be within a few degrees of 60f, though rain- and cloud-cooled HTL/
OSC will be in the mid/upper 50s.

Decreasing cloud trend will continue for much of this evening.
However, as the high slides further east across Quebec and ridging
over the northern lakes relaxes somewhat, 1000-850mb winds will veer
to the se. This will drag a more moist sub-850mb airmass northward
with time, especially overnight. Will see an increase in cloud cover
overnight in northern lower MI, less so eastern upper. Min temps
upper 30s to mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

The area of low pressure that moves by to our south today gets
blocked by a strong ridge of high pressure centered over northern
New England. The combination of lingering easterly flow/wrap around
moisture and the remnants of the decaying area of low pressure will
bring chances for showers. Confidence of this actually happening
remain low but will leave in slight/low chance pops as well as
increasing cloud cover. Fast on the heels of this system is an
approaching cold front which is associated with another (and
stronger) area of low pressure which will pass by well to north
across north central Canada. This will lead to a chance of showers
across northwest zones late in the day. Temperatures will moderate a
bit and be slightly above normal Thursday and several degrees above
on Friday (out ahead of the front).


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...

It`s just our luck that the cold front from Friday gets hung up
across the region Saturday (around central lower Michigan) while a
deepening area of low pressure moves up along it into northern
Michigan by Saturday night into Sunday morning. This should lead to
widespread showers through much of that time. Colder air moving in
behind it should then linger showers into Sunday night and perhaps
be given an added boost from increasing over lake instability and a
northern stream short wave Monday. There could be another short wave
Tuesday as the pattern remains active but confidence is low enough
to leave out pops for now. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above climatological normals, except perhaps a few degrees below
next Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Low pressures pivoting across the southern Lakes overnight will
spread a band of light rain and mid level clouds across KMBL. MVFR
producing cigs may make a run into Manistee later tonight, but
current trends suggest they will stay just off to the south.
Something to monitor for sure. Expecting just mid and upper level
clouds across the other taf locations, with perhaps a few
sprinkles or very light showers impacting TVC overnight. Clouds
will slowly decrease later this morning and afternoon. Light
northeast winds tonight expected to become a bit gusty out of the
east on today.


Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Easterly winds will remain gusty today, resulting in continued
advisory-level winds/waves along the ne lower MI coastline. Some
potential for advisories to be expanded to other waters; will be
assessing that more substantially shortly. Those east winds will
hold on thru Thursday morning, before veering se later in the


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-


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