Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued at 945 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Not much of a significant change to the forecast tonight, as nrn
Michigan remains locked within a very dry air mass below 550mb.
However, there has been quite extensive higher level clouds
around, associated with a shortwave in nrn Michigan. This wave is
departing attm with skies becoming clearer over the next few
hours. That leads to the next minor change. Did lower overnight
temperatures for a more extensive area into the middle 30s, and
not any chillier, as winds just off the sfc will be increasing,
keeping the BL somewhat mixed. Regardless, this will result in a
more patchy frost potential across the region. Dont think it will
be cold enough for any needed frost headlines, but lower lying
areas will be most susceptible, maybe down near 30F in spots.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

...Patchy frost tonight then showers late Saturday...

High pressure stretched across south central Canada will continue to
circulate dry and cool air into northern Michigan through tonight.
Some mainly low lying spots could see patchy frost tonight despite a
light east wind and increasing high clouds. Low pressure will then
emerge out of the western Plains early Saturday and track northeast
affecting the western Great Lakes later Saturday into Sunday. Clouds
will continue to thicken and lower Saturday in advance of the
approaching area of low pressure. Rain shower chances will increase
from southwest to northeast through the day (though spots from APN
to ANJ will likely remain dry through a majority of the day). Lows
tonight ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs Saturday in
the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

...Unsettled weather to start next week...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. A few non-severe
thunderstorms possible Saturday night and early Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified May pattern set to continue,
driven in large part by robust shortwave trough rotating east
through Colorado this afternoon. This system will pivot up through
the Plains this weekend, eventually helping carve out rather deep
troughing across southern Canada and the Northern Mississippi Valley
heading into the beginning of next week. Deep southwest flow and
attendant surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead of this wave will
spread across our area later Saturday into early Sunday, bringing a
round of showers and possible thunderstorms along with it.
Additional energy rotating around that deepening trough to our
northwest will bring additional light shower chances heading through
at least the beginning stages of next work week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temporal and spatial
resolution of weekend showers. Addressing additional light shower
chances on Monday. Cloud and temperature trends through the period.

Details: Strong warm/moist advection will be well estabilished
across the Lakes heading through Saturday night and early Sunday as
deep low pressure pivots up through the Northern Mississippi Valley.
Elongated and intense upper jet core to our west and north will only
help with deep layer lift, as will deep slanted warm front as it
propels northeast into the region. Would expect one or more lines of
showers to accompany such, spreading rather quickly northeast across
the region Saturday night through early Sunday. Simple forcing
argues for at least some thunder potential, although nearly no
surface based instability and limited elevated cape (upwards of only
a few hundred joules/kg) should keep thunderstorm intensity and
coverage limited. Dry slot punches into the region behind fast
moving cold front during Sunday morning. Main shower threat will end
with its arrival, although at this early juncture cannot completely
rule out a few additional light showers Sunday and Sunday night with
any passing mid level vort lobes. Same story goes for Monday,
although return of some better moisture within deepening trough axis
and diurnal instability trends may support a touch better shower
coverage. Definitely looks like no wash out, and likely to see a
vast majority of the time and vast majority of the area remaining
dry. Not a ton of cold air with this system (at least initially),
with near seasonal temperatures Sunday trending just a few degrees
cooler for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Rain showers look to remain in the forecast through Wednesday
night/Thursday morning as a storm system remains nearly stationary
over the Great Lakes region. High pressure then builds into the
forecast area Thursday and provides northern Michigan with mostly
sunny skies, precipitation-free weather, and moderating
temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, with
Wednesday being the coolest of the days, while lows will be in the
low to mid 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

High pressure to our north will remain in control through the TAF
period, resulting in easterly winds and VFR CIGS through Saturday.
Those easterly winds will increase tonight with low end LLWS
developing, which will then mix down into gusty conditions
Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the south late Saturday
into Sunday, and CIGS will be lowering with time, reaching MVFR
Saturday night while periods of showers and possible storms
arrive with reduced VSBYS. LLWS returns with more vengeance
Saturday night.


Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Winds will continue to slowly veer around more easterly tonight,
remaining below small craft advisory criteria. East to southeast
winds increase in speed Saturday ahead of an approaching warm
front. Small craft advisories will likely be needed much of
Saturday for most nearshore waters. Gusty winds will continue into
Saturday night.




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