Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 301353
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

DEEP LAYER FORCING VIA STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS/LOWER LEVEL FGEN SIGNAL KICKING OF A WELL DEVELOPED SHIELD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
(DESPITE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING NOW EXITED OUR AREA INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN). AGGRESSIVE DRYING NOTED JUST UPSTREAM...
WITH SHARP BACK EDGE TO H8-H7 HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAKING STEADY SOUTH
PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH A SLOW...BUT STEADY...SOUTH PROGRESS TO CURRENT NORTHERN LOWER
RAINS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING RAINS CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR SAGINAW
BAY BY THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT CLOUDS/RAINS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WITH READINGS
ESSENTIALLY STUCK ABOUT WHERE THEY AREA NOW. INCREASING SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP THE CAUSE JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE MIGHTY MAC...BUT EVEN
HERE PERSISTENT CAA WILL KEEP READINGS LARGELY STUCK IN THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SOGGY EARLY TODAY AND MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF
M-32.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS THRU ROGERS CITY...GLR...AND MBL AT THIS HOUR. DEEP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOW MOSTLY EAST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME VIGOROUS SHRA (NO THUNDER) OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MI (W AND NW OF MKG). PLENTY OF STRATIFORM RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH WITH A BACK EDGE NEARING MQT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SAGINAW BAY REGION EARLY TODAY...BUT
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LINGER LONGER. IN FACT...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. PLACES THAT DO CLEAR
WILL SEE CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP
TRENDS TODAY...AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...RAIN WILL OF COURSE BE RATHER WIDESPREAD IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. AN UPPER JET EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF
WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT IN EASTERN WI.
THIS WILL RETARD THE FRONT SOMEWHAT...AND ENHANCE FGEN FORCING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN
LOWER. 12-15Z...MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN LOWER...SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD MIDDAY. AFTER 18Z/2
PM...ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A TVC-APN LINE...THOUGH THE
DRYING TREND WILL STALL OUT AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE SUN WILL COME OUT EMPHATICALLY IN EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF TVC-APN LATE IN THE DAY
WILL ALSO SEE SUN. AGAIN THOUGH...THIS IS SLOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS.

DIURNAL TEMP RISES TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH EASTERN UPPER
SOMETHING OF AN EXCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AS A
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER AS
TO HOW THE BATTLE BETWEEN INCOMING DRY AIR ON N TO NE FLOW...AND
PRECIP TRYING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO LOWER MI...PLAYS OUT. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE NAM...AND WOULD HOLD ONTO PRECIP
CHANCES NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY BY MIDNIGHT. NOTING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY TRENDING SLOWER AND SLOWER...WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN
COMPARED TO THE NAM...HANGING ONTO POPS NEAR SAGINAW BAY EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE SLOWER CLEARING TREND LIMITS FROST POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS...AS
WE WON/T MIX OUT A LOT OF MOISTURE TODAY...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN PARTICULAR...THE AU SABLE VALLEY (A
USUAL COLD SPOT) LOOKS SAFE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT...AND NON-SHELTERED LOCALES WILL STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE. SOME
MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT AM UNSURE AS HOW
MUCH FROST WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. WILL MENTION FROST IN SOME NORTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE GRIDS AND HWO...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A
FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: FROST SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: HOW MUCH OF NE LOWER GETS RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

(5/31)SUNDAY...THE GFS CAME IN WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE MOVING UP
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE
ECMWF AND NAM. CONSIDERING THAT WE HAVE A HUDSON BAY HIGH BUILDING
INTO N MICHIGAN ON THE BACK SIDE TO THIS SYSTEM, THINK THAT THE GFS
MOISTURE AND QPF ARE TOO FAR NORTH. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF IDEA,
WHICH LOOKS GOOD AS THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS CLOSE TO THE NAM AND 12Z
ECMWF IDEAS. SO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SE COUNTIES, MAINLY
NEAR LAKE HURON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. THEN THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BEGINS OUR ROUND OF DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT, THE HIGH
CLEARS OUT THE SKY AND THE WINDS DECOUPLE. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF N LOWER. SO
WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF FROST.

(6/1)MONDAY...AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE THE
REGION, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C SO THE SFC
TEMPERATURES DON`T GO MUCH OF ANYWHERE. IT LOOKS LIKE WE GET INTO
THE MID 60S SO FAR. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HIGH STILL OVER THE REGION, WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN, PUT PATCHY FROST OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO THE WEATHER REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY SO FAR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UNCERTAINTY LOOKS TO CREEP
INTO THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BEGINS TO PUSH THE HIGH EAST OF THE
REGION ALLOWS THE WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN E UPPER AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER. A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION, AND THE
SUPPORTING FEATURES (FAST FLOW JET) LOOK WEAK AS WELL. SO WILL HAVE
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

IFR EARLY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY.

RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWNSTATE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ENTER THE REGION
FROM THE NW AND N TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. APN WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
IMPROVE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REMAIN SO THRU TONIGHT.

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND DECREASE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL VEER WINDS TO
NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...THEN VEER NE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AM
STILL EVALUATING HEADLINE NEEDS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
BE HOISTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE NW LOWER MI
COAST...WHITEFISH BAY...AND AREAS NEAR PRESQUE ISLE LT ON LAKE
HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



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