Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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076
FXUS63 KAPX 291353
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
953 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Early morning fog/stratus is on its way out the door. Exception is
in central lower MI, where a thicker stratus deck lingers per
visible sat imagery. In our forecast area, this is impacting
Missaukee and portions of Roscommon/Gladwin Counties. Have
adjusted cloud cover forecast, but still expect stratus to be
totally eroded in our area by noon.

Some cirrus also filtering in from the w and nw, associated with a
decaying MCS making eastward progress into western upper MI and
northern WI. The suite of convection-allowing models continue to
weaken this activity as it moves east. This makes sense, as 850mb
theta-e values are some 10-12K warmer west of Lake MI vs here.
However, some model runs do allow dying remnant showers to at
least approach far western Chip/Mack. Will add an isolated pop to
this area for the 2nd half of the afternoon.

Otherwise, only small adjustments needed. Max temps are generally
fine, though might boost very slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High impact weather potential: A few thunderstorms possible late
tonight. Severe storms not anticipated.

Overview: Low amplitude short wave ridging and surface high
pressure firmly overhead this morning providing quiet conditions
and mainly clear skies, save for some patchy stratus and high
clouds. Upstream, short wave and deeper surface low is working
through central Canada with an attending cold front stretching
down into the northern plains to secondary low pressure in the
Dakotas. Moisture/instability axis stretches northward through
the plains and upper midwest ahead of the front. Complex of
showers/storms has blossomed across northern Minnesota along the
apex of the instability gradient and in the vicinity of strong
low level convergence max. Heart of the convection is tracking
southeastward along the instability gradient, but thicker high
cloud cover is already spreading across upper Michigan.

Today: Some fog/stratus out there to start the day, which will
burn off by mid to late morning. Otherwise, high pressure will
remain across the region leading to quiet weather overall.
Upstream convection will track down into Wisconsin this morning
but should eventually diminish as it encounters increasingly
stable conditions across northern Michigan. But thicker mid and
high cloud cover will be arriving later in the morning and through
the afternoon hours. Possible there may be some decaying showers
pressing into eastern upper/far NW lower Michigan by late
afternoon, but will leave the forecast dry for now.

Tonight: Lead batch of decaying showers will likely be tracking
through the northern part of the CWA this evening. Meanwhile,
instability axis will fold into northern Michigan as upstream cold
front advances into upper Michigan overnight. Not a tremendous
amount of forcing with this system, but expect renewed convection
along/ahead of the front that spreads into the northern half of
the CWA, mainly during the overnight hours. Stronger mid level
flow does develop across northern Michigan overnight and could
lead to some better organized storms. But given relatively modest
instability, not anticipating any organized severe weather threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Frontal boundary slides south through Northern Michigan on Tuesday.
Some moisture pooling in advance of this boundary with
isodrosothermal advection bringing mid-upper 60s dewpoints to the
area, along with a narrow axis of 1.50"+ PWATs.  At least marginal
instability also present with MUCAPES possibly in excess of 1000
j/kg possible during the afternoon hours with a plume of steepening
mid level lapse rates.  On the negative side, there are relatively
weak wind fields and an overall lack of deep moisture.  A few
stronger storms are possible, tied to the amount of destabilization
that can be realized, but believe coverage of any thunderstorm
activity will be scattered.  There are at least some hints of a band
of light precipitation developing post frontal, possibly enhanced by
80kt 200mb jetlet sliding across Northern Michigan through the late
afternoon/evening which may briefly create more favorable upper
divergence fields. Because of this, will keep chance pops in the
forecast for much of Northern Lower for the evening hours.  Deep
layer drying takes over by later Tuesday night into the day on
Wednesday putting an end to any lingering precipitation. Breezy
conditions (especially closer to the coasts) on Wednesday.

Expansive high pressure west of Hudson Bay will slide south/east for
the middle and end of the week, resulting in an extended period of
dry weather.  One small potential issue may result from developing
moist east/northeast flow on Thursday which could result in more
cloudiness (especially toward Lake Huron) and potentially even some
light precipitation.  Otherwise, seasonably coolish temperatures as
850mb thermal trough builds southward into the Northern Lakes.
Thursday appears to be the coolest day, with highs in the 60s to
around 70 in many areas.  A chilly night Thursday night under ideal
radiational cooling, with the coldest locations possibly dipping
into the upper 30s.  Gradual airmass modification for Friday into
the weekend as high amplitude ridging over the Central Plains shifts
eastward. The first half of the holiday weekend looks to have
terrific weather, with lots of sunshine and warm temperatures.
The models begin to break down the ridge and bring increasing
shower/tstm chances into the western lakes later Sunday into Labor
Day ahead of a cold front.  This seems too fast given the strength
of the downstream ridging, pointing toward a potentially drier
forecast for the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Areas of fog will impact northern lower Michigan through mid
morning. KAPN/KPLN will see the biggest impact with a period of
IFR vsbys until 13Z or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will return
for all terminal sites by mid to late morning and persist through
tonight.

A cold front will press into the region toward Tuesday morning.
There will be some showers/isolated storms that eventually press
into the northern Michigan later today and tonight. But widespread
showers/storms are not expected and thus have not explicitly
included in the terminal forecasts at this point.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure will remain across the region today and into
tonight maintaining lighter winds and waves. Approaching cold
front tonight into Tuesday will bring increasing W-SW winds on the
lakes although winds/waves will remain below headline criteria.
But after FROPA later Tuesday and Tuesday night, gustier northwest
winds may bring small craft advisory conditions to some nearshore
areas.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Keysor
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Adam



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