Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280202
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

QUIET. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THICKEN...IN ADVANCE OF
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. SOME
WEAKENING VIRGA IS SEEN ALONG A GRB-GRR LINE. ACTUAL PRECIP...
REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...IS ROTATING INTO THE MKE- BEH AREA.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...AND WILL BE HINDERED BY
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERHEAD (00Z APX OBSERVED PWAT 0.11...850MB
DEW PT DEPRESSION 30C). DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP CHANCES NEAR
MBL/CAD/GLADWIN UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. CERTAINLY NOTHING TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN
FROM SW TO NE. SOME CHANCES FOR -SHRA NEAR MBL ON THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM A VFR MID-CLOUD DECK. EASTERLY
BREEZES UP TO 10KT THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DICKSON



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