Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 290135
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
935 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

BAND OF -RA CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER FROM GLEN ARBOR TO HTL TO
PINCONNING. DID ADJUST THE NIGHTTIME FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER FORECAST. GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD
LESS COVERAGE WITH TIME...THOUGH UNSTEADILY SO. SHOULD SEE A BIT
OF A LULL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS FGEN FADES AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND BEFORE THE CLOSED 500MB LOW ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST AFTER SUNRISE. SO WILL DWINDLE POPS SOMEWHAT (THOUGH NOT
ELIMINATE) LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...WITH ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP
MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. IN FACT...WILL TREND MINS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT. MICHIGAN IS IN A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES INTO LOWER MI BY FRI MORNING AND INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE THIS EXITS FRI
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MANISTEE
DID MANAGE TO GET SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE PCPN SHIELD
WHICH THE DRY AIR HAS MANAGED TO KEEP MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD IN SOME
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT
TO DISLODGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
WILL KEEP A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT...A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
TREK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED MOISTURE TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE AS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. QCONV INDICATES THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS PROVIDED THE
MOISTURE DOES LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS POINT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
WITH THIS WAVE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF IT. ONCE
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY, SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES SHOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS THERE FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR. SPOTTY -SHRA TONIGHT NEAR TVC/MBL.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT MOVES
EAST. OUTERMOST BAND OF -SHRA ON THE NORTH FLANK OF THE LOW WILL
REACHED TVC/HTL/STANDISH. -SHRA ACTIVITY MAY HANG ON INTO FRI
MORNING...BEFORE ENDING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE FORECAST.

LIGHT NE TO E WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND MANISTEE/FRANKFORT
AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...07



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