Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCT/BKN LAKE-INDUCED LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MID MORNING. NW LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BLO 10 KTS FROM THE N/NE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD






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