Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 120645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH MICHIGAN TODAY AND SLIDE THROUGH OUR
STATE ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN IS A`CHANGING TO ONE
A BIT MORE ACTIVE. NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 00Z
RAOB/GUIDANCE MOISTURE CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS TELLS THE TALE...WITH
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PWAT VALUES WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SPIKING TO AOA 1.5 INCH LEVELS...THE GREATEST VALUES
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MOISTURE SPEWING CORN CROPS OF IOWA AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DYNAMICS TO WORK ON SAID MOISTURE MARGINAL AT BEST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...WITH CORE OF STRONGEST
DYNAMICS WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. SIMPLE SHARP
MOISTURE DELINEATION COINCIDENT WITH PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY LOW AMP
SHORTWAVE MANAGED TO KICK OFF A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS PAST EVENING...PRODUCING MINIMAL RAIN AMOUNTS
AT BEST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRYING TO DRIVE SOME
ADDITIONAL MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
LAKES...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO DO SO. PER THE USUAL...CORE OF MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER ARCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN CORN
BELT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. EJECTING
VORT LOBE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ONLY HELPING THE CAUSE IN THIS
AREA...WITH THIS VORT CENTER PERHAPS FORCING SOME INTERESTING
RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR WEATHER AS IT HEADS EAST INTO OUR REGION BY
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION
THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM INTENSITY AND POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL
ALSO NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: CONFIDENCE IS NEVER HIGH WHEN FORECASTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SUMMER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND TODAY IS DEFINITELY NO DIFFERENT.
KIND OF HARD TO FIND MUCH IMPETUS TO DRIVE SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH DECAYING FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES...ALL THE WHILE RATHER UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS
EXIST ABOVE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
GIVEN IN-PLACE MOISTURE PLUME/THETA-E RIDGING AND PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL
FEATURE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO BECOME A TOUCH MORE ACTIVE
HEADING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...
SPURRED ALONG BY APPROACH OF CENTRAL PLAINS VORT LOBE AND MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE RER UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ANY AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ONLY
HELP THE CAUSE...AS WILL DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE HURON
INDUCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. NOW...ALL THAT BEING SAID...HAVE SEEN
JUST TOO MANY TIMES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT (MCS) IN MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTHWEST "STEAL THE SHOW" AS IT RIDES
EAST ALONG TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. NOT SOLD AT ALL THIS WILL NOT
HAPPEN AGAIN...DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE GOOD OFF THE DECK SUPPORT AND
DEEP MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AND DESPITE LESS THAN STELLAR CONFIDENCE...HAVE NO
STRONG CASE TO CHANGE INHERITED FORECAST IDEA MUCH...FEATURING
LIKELY SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EASTERN UPPER LOOKS TO FAR REMOVED FROM
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING BUT CHANCE/SCATTERED MENTION. WILL
FOLLOW PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA TO END BETTER RAIN COVERAGE AND
DOWNPLAY THUNDER THREAT TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FOR SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR OUR
AREA...WITH MUCH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINING OFF TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS...WITH THIN SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE NOTED IN BUFR SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS ALREADY NOTED DECENT
MOISTURE PROFILES. DEFINITELY DON`T FORESEE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONCERN...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE
REALIZED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THRU OUR CWA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
RIGHT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. RESIDUAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LIMITED DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEND TO ORGANIZATION OF WEAK CONVECTION
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDER ALSO
POSSIBLE WHERE CAPES MAY REACH CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WEAK RIDGING AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING US A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE THE DEEP
UPPER LOW ARRIVES MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW CARVING INTO OUR CWA AHEAD OF IT ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT...BUT CERTAINLY MORE THAN
ENOUGH DEEP CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIGGING UPPER LOW TO WARRANT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. OUR COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND REALLY TAKE HOLD
MONDAY THANKS TO LOW LEVEL CAA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN
TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR SAGINAW BAY...WILL COOL TO MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 70S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW PINWHEELS
INTO MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AS PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR STATE THRU
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. DEEP/SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SHOWERS...WITH NO REAL THREAT OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR MID JULY...
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...
BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THRU FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST LOWER
(KAPN) LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES VERY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH PERIODS OF VIS
RESTRICTION IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS
REMAINS VERY LOW...AND SIMPLY TO LOW TO SHOW THIS TYPE OF
SPECIFICITY WITHIN THIS TAF CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH VCSH
WORDING AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW...LEAVING PLENTY OF TIME TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO INDUCE LAKE INDUCED COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOME SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE STRAITS HEADING THROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/BRIEF GUSTY SHIFTING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO INDUCE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE BIG WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS SLOWLY VEER NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...
WHILE REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB





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