Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 080215
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
915 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AFTER A BIT OF CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN PRETTY QUICKLY. A WEAK VORT
MAX WAS RIDING UP NE LOWER/LAKE HURON AND HAS RESULTED IN SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW (ONLY OB SHOWING PRECIP WAS RAIN AT
OSCODA). THERE WAS ANOTHER APPARENT VORT MAX ROLLING UP INTO
CENTRAL UPPER/NE WISCONSIN WHICH WAS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES.

THE NE LOWER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DEPART OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT WESTERN
CHIP/MACK...BUT WILL INDEED BE MONITORING RADAR. EITHER
WAY...LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.

THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WAS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEEING THE MUCH
SLOWER LOWERING OF CLOUDS THAT WAS ANTICIPATED...DID AT LEAST PUSH
BACK THE CHANCES FOR SEEING THIS LIGHT PRECIP. THINK IT`S GONNA
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO LOWER ENOUGH FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN
DRIZZLE. SFC TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST MORE LOCATIONS WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE FIRST DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED (4AM-7AM).

STILL OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IT`S
IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BLACK ICE POTENTIAL IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN "NO MANS LAND" WEATHERWISE TONIGHT...AS
WE ARE EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD BUT
ALL OF THE FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.  OF COURSE THIS IS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THERE ARE STILL WEATHER CONCERNS.  WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER A NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE DEPTH A BIT OVERNIGHT TOWARD 3-4K IN NORTHERN
LOWER...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  THIS SCENARIO
CERTAINLY RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS LIMITED AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.  WILL TAKE LOW TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO EARLY AFTERNOON SFC
DWPTS...WHICH PUTS MANY AREAS WITHIN 1-2 DEGF OF FREEZING /30-34
DEGF/.  WILL INCLUDE A FREEZING DRIZZLE REFERENCE FOR LATER TONIGHT
OVER INTERIOR AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY END UP SEEING MORE STRATUS/FOG
THAN DRIZZLE.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLACK ICE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING WITH FOG.  WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A
REFERENCE IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.

OVER EASTERN UPPER...MOISTURE WILL EXTEND CLOSER TO THE -10C
ISOTHERM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW /SNIZZLE?/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.  POCKETS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

WILL HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/BLACK ICE WITH A
MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.   THIS MAY
END UP BEING "SPS WORTHY" OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
ON THAT AS THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

BUSY PERIOD...WITH AN ABRUPT SWITCH FROM MILD TO VERY COLD WX. LOW
PRESSURE STARTS MONDAY MORNING OVER OUR HEADS...AND WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EAST THRU THE PERIOD...BEFORE BEING LOST IN THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. 500MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OVERHEAD MON-TUE...BEFORE IT MINORS OUT AND THE HEART OF THE UPPER
TROF MOVES EAST. HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES INTO TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AFTER THAT. PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

MONDAY...NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL HOVER OVER LOWER MI. WE REMAIN
BENEATH THE DECAYING DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...NOTING THAT IN
GENERAL THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THAT LEAVES
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION. THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BELOW 800-850MB...AND SOME CIRRUS AND
HIGHER MID CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 700MB...BUT DRY AIR IN BETWEEN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -6 TO -10C...COLDER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF A MISTY/DRIZZLY PATTERN...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOME -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 30S.

MON NIGHT-TUE...500MB LOW FILLS A BIT AS IT DRIFTS FROM SW LOWER MI
TO NORTHERN OH. REMNANT SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS ALLOWS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
TO WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN MI. IT ALSO ALLOWS COLD AIR TO BLEED BACK
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. 805MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TO THE MID/UPPER MINUS TEENS IN NW
LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK BY LATE TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY
STEADY NNW 1000-850MB FETCH DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE DEFINITELY GET
THERE TUE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SN/SHSN WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN NW
LOWER MI. ACCUMULATING SNOW (AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES)
SHOULD REALLY START TO EMERGE TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS 20S. MAX TEMPS 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

TUE NIGHT-WED...COLD AIR GETS MORE SERIOUS ABOUT FLOODING THE
REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EASTERN LAKES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE EXITING TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE WITH TIME
OUTSIDE THE NNW-FLOW SNOWBELTS. 850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BELOW -20C BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO START TO HINDER
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS...
ESPECIALLY NW LOWER MI. MIN TEMPS 5 TO 15F. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF LIKELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...JUST NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE
THINS OUT A BIT AND OMEGA GETS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE DGZ. THE BIG
STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HIGHS WILL FIGHT TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS...BUT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS...AND IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE TEMPS COULD REALLY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN UNEXPECTED CLEARING/THINNING OF THE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAS
LED TO DELAYING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR...AND ULTIMATELY IFR
CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. STILL SEE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH BL COOLING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DID RELUCTANTLY TAKE OUT MENTION OF DRIZZLE...AS THE
VERTICAL PROFILE DOESN`T APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR IT. DO BELIEVE THAT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ONLY INCREASES WITH TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CHANCE
RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK.  A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK...WITH COLDER AIR SURGING
BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...KEYSOR


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