Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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476
FXUS63 KAPX 271450
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. SUN IS SHINING...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
CIRRUS SNEAKING INTO THE MANISTEE/CADILLAC AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 50S
IN EASTERN UPPER...WARMING SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG M-55.
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NE. ALL OF WHICH ARE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. ENJOY THE DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EDGING UP INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...BUT WITH WINDS TENDING TOWARD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. BUT...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE SFC
WILL LEAD TO EVENTUAL LLWS CONDITIONS TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KTVC AND KMBL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



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