Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250925
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ONE AND ALL ACROSS THE LAND!

A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT AROUND THESE PARTS (WELL-DESERVED IF YOU ASK
THIS FORECASTER!)...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST
NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY...WITH PRESSURES ALREADY DOWN TO 980MB PER 06Z
ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE...DRIVING UPPER WAVE IS LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...WITH SHARP SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE
HAVING BROUGHT A RAPID END TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA THE PAST FEW HOURS. MINUS THE LAST MINUTE 100 MILE JOG TO THE
EAST...THE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS WORKED
OUT QUITE WELL...THOUGH OF COURSE THAT JOG REALLY DID A NUMBER ON
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST (MY APOLOGIES FOR THOSE WISHING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS...WILL A WHITE NEW YEARS DO THE TRICK?). QUICK PEEK
UPSTREAM SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES/MID MISS VALLEY...WHILE A
LINGERING TAIL OF DEEPER MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 600MB IS LIFTING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION
SHIELD RAPIDLY LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO. HAVE SEEN A QUICK FLARE-UP
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS LATTER MOISTURE TAIL...NOT
TERRIBLY SURPRISING WITH A BIT OF A TERRAIN AND VERY WEAK LAKE
COMPONENT...THOUGH THE OVERALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT CENTER
MAINLY ON CLOUD TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT
SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS.

OVERALL VIEW OF THE CONUS SHOWS A RELOADING OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGHING SHOWING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE FIRST HINTS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS
UNDERWAY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA UP TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...WITH AN ELONGATING BAND OF DEEPER LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN SOME BLOSSOMING LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS UP IN THAT DIRECTION. THAT JUNK MAY COME INTO PLAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT FOR TODAY...JUST NOT SEEING A
WHOLE LOT OF WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR
LOOKS TO PULL NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY TRAPPING
RESIDUAL MOISTURE DOWN LOW AND FAVORING AN OVERALL CLOUDY CHRISTMAS
DAY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...NOT SO SURE I AM FEELING
THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE DOES THIN CONSIDERABLY WITH TIME.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOMETHING THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT
MORE LIKELY JUST SOME FLURRIES AS DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ICE IN THE CLOUDS (TEMPS AROUND -7C)...DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO
AROUND 800MB MAY ALLOW FOR MORE OF A "SNIZZLE" SCENARIO.

FORECAST INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING AS ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT SNAKES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL U.P....WITH A FURTHER ELONGATION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TOWARD THE STRAITS AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH.
BROAD BUT WEAK WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL PLAY INTO TOP DOWN
SATURATION WITH TIME (BEGINNING TODAY REALLY)...WITH A PERIOD OF
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ENTIRELY POSSIBLE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES INTO
THE EASTERN U.P. THAT SAID...THIS WON`T BE A BIG DEAL WITH ONLY A
SKIFF EXPECTED AT BEST...SO PREFER TO JUST WORD IT AS FLURRIES.
FARTHER SOUTH...CAN`T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OFF THE WATER AND UP INTO THE
TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE RATHER MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SOLID THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH BISECTING NORTH AMERICA...AND RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING IS STILL
LOOKING TO BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL HELP DISLODGE MUCH COLDER AIR
FROM THE ARCTIC AND DOWN INTO NORTH AMERICA SIGNALING A TRANSITION
TO SOME COLDER WEATHER AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE STRONG SHORT WAVES OF NOTE MOVING THROUGH THE
CONUS TODAY. ONE STRONG WAVE NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO CANADA THIS MORNING...OUR CHRISTMAS EVE STORM THAT
UNDERPERFORMED. ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL IMPACT US THIS WEEKEND.

FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SW CONUS
HELPING TO PUMP UP DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PUSH SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE. MIGHT EVEN SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF THINNING CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL RH FORECASTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT SATURATED DOWN
LOW. STILL...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE SUN PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS SETS
UP FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. NOT A
BIG DEAL OTHERWISE...AND OVERALL DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE NAME OF
THE GAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. RESPECTABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL LOOKING TO
EJECT FROM THE UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH AND ADVANCE UP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER DEEPENING SFC LOW UP
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP UP
THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. NAM/EURO/SREF SOLUTIONS ARE THE FURTHER NORTH TRACKING
THE LOW UP THROUGH FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (SREF TAKES THE LOW UP
THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...WHICH OF COURSE HAS IMPLICATIONS
ON WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIP TRACK OCCURS. ALSO ONCE AGAIN...WARMER
AIR (H8 TEMP >0C) NOSING UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PRESENT
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN ACROSS THE SRN/SE COUNTIES HEADING
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. WILL BE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE
SOME POTENTIAL OF BRINGING A SNEAKY BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW UP THROUGH
PARTS OF NRN MICHIGAN (00Z EURO WAS DOWNRIGHT WET CRANKING OUT
AROUND 0.40 INCH LIQUID ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT IS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT).

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SYSTEM DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH GRADUALLY COLDER AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME HINTS OF A QUICK MOVING NRN
STREAM WAVE RUNNING ACROSS THE NRN LAKES ON SUNDAY THAT MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE AREA. THAT...ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN THE
SNOW BELTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCES COMING
THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE LARGER CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN  CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A WEAKENING LOW FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEHIND THAT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND SLOWLY COOL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S TO RING IN THE NEW YEAR. LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT STARTING THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 20S COOLING TO SINGLE DIGITS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

SNOW SHIELD WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY 07Z...IMPACTING JUST APN
THROUGH THAT TIME WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH LATE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY. SPEAKING OF WINDS...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING...SLOWLY BACKING MORE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVENING AND DIMINISHING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345-
     346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...LAWRENCE



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