Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1034 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 1027 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Sunny and warm. About sums it up for today as high pressure at the
surface and aloft remain centered overhead. Per 12z sounding and a
more modified airmass, see little reason some interior locations
of northern lower Michigan will not reach 80 degrees. Light
pressure gradient will allow good to well organized lake breeze
development this afternoon, keeping those nearshore communities a
touch cooler.

As for fire weather: Definitely looks like the 2 out of 3 rule
applies...with warm temperatures and an expected quick mixing out
of any lingering low level moisture. Per recent trends and that
12z sounding...fully expect parts of northeast lower to experience
afternoon rh values approaching the upper teens/lower 20s. Some
good news...with overhead high pressure keeping winds light
through the growing boundary layer, with analysis of soundings
showing sub 12kt winds through the mixed layer this afternoon. May
see a few gusts along inward pushing lake breezes, but these
should be temporary. See no need to change inherited Fire Weather
Watch per these trends.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region early
this morning. Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the
entire column continues to result in clear skies for all of Michigan
and even Wisconsin per latest IR satellite loop and regional obs.
Temps continue to fall thru the 40s and into the 30s for many
locations across our CWA. However...still expect most locations will
remain above freezing prior to sunrise...with only patchy frost

Nrn Michigan will see one more 24 period of dry weather before
precip chances finally increase on Tuesday along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Deep dry air and strong subsidence will
remain the rule today and tonight...resulting in a continuation of
clear skies and low level winds sufficiently weak to allow for lake
breeze development again today. Low level winds shifting to the
south as the high center slides just east of Michigan will draw
warmer air into our state today...with afternoon highs warming into
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees...cooler near the lakeshores as
usual. Low temps tonight will only fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

...Warm and showery over the next several days...

The ridge of high pressure breaks down/drifts off to our east
Tuesday allowing for a large scale pattern change to take shape
across the western Great Lakes. The new pattern will feature higher
humidity levels and an extended period with decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will be the result of
several pieces of energy ejecting out of a long wave trough which
will be centered across the western states. Although the details
remain rather uncertain, there still could be some strong to severe
storms Thursday into Friday depending upon how much heating we can
generate as it appears that there will be a surface warm front
lurking somewhere in the vicinity plus we get into stronger wind
fields aloft. Any rainfall will be welcomed with open arms as it has
gotten awfully dry out there. Overall, temperatures through the
period are expected to be a few degrees above normal for late May.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Nrn Michigan will see one more 24 hour period of solid VFR
conditions as high pressure and dry air remain firmly in control.
Lake breezes will again develop by around midday...but will be not
quite as prominent today as low level winds begin to strengthen a
bit ahead of the approaching cold front well upstream.


Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight as high
pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great Lakes
region. Dry weather will persist thru tonight as well. Winds...waves
and precip chances will all increase on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches during the day and sweeps thru the region at night.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-019-

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ017-018-



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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