Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 232358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
758 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of thunderstorms thru
this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Elongated area of low pressure extends
from Quebec thru Michigan and Wisconsin into the Mid Mississippi
Valley this afternoon...with upper level trough aligned just behind
it to the NW. Main upper low is now centered along the Minnesota/
Iowa border...with the surface reflection taking better shape just
to the east over Southern Wisconsin under the area of max upper
level divergence. Plenty of rather weak convection continues to
develop all around this complex area of deep low pressure...with the
greatest coverage extending from Illinois into SW Lower Michigan
under that area of max upper divergence. Closer to home...scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop along and south
of M-32 this afternoon...with the greatest thunderstorm coverage
occurring in our SE CWA further fueled and organized by enhanced low
level helicity via the opposing lake breeze.

As we head into tonight...upper low center will dive south into
Missouri as the surface low becomes reestablished over Indiana and
Ohio. Potent short wave and area of associated moisture will drive
northward ahead of the upper low into Wisconsin and Michigan...
resulting in a further northward push of POPs into the Tip of the
Mitt and Eastern Upper Michigan. Potential for thunderstorm activity
will die with sunset and should remain subsevere thru this time.
Sct/nmrs showers will continue across our CWA for the rest of the
night and into Wednesday as deep cyclonic flow and ample low level
moisture remain in place. Better synoptic support via the short wave
and the low itself will push further south toward the Ohio Valley.
We will see a slight chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon...but this
should be mainly limited to our far southern CWA along and south of

Low temps tonight will range from the mid 40s in Eastern Upper
Michigan to the lower 50s across our SW CWA. High temps on Wednesday
will be mainly in the low to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Unsettled and a little cool through at least Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.

More of the same really as the cutoff upper level low continues to
send upper level disturbances our way from time to time.
Short/medium term models vary on the details/timing of individual
waves as well as when/if main upper trough exits off to our east. At
this point will continue with periodic shower chances through
Thursday night as per the blend but could foresee activity hanging
around through Friday as well. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s
Thursday and the middle 60s to lower 70s Friday. Lows in the middle
40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Consternation continues concerning convection for the second half of
the holiday weekend. Still a lot of disparity in the guidance, with
showers moving in at all kinds of different times Sunday/Monday.
Still think the majority of any rain that occurs will be one day or
the other, rather than spread over a couple of days that current
PoPs depict. But narrowing that down to what day at this point is
the problem. As such, will run with the blend PoPs and refine
through the week. Temperatures are expected to run near to slightly
above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Weak low pressure was in south central Wisconsin this evening,
with an ill-defined warm front extending into nrn lower, masked to
a degree by lake breezes. A more developed low pressure was in
southern Illinois, which will become the dominant sfc feature into
the night, which will help winds to become east-northeast and
fairly light. The added sfc based moisture with the warm front,
slow nocturnal cooling under clouds, and winds coming in off Lake
Huron will set the stage for MVFR to IFR CIGS and fog for APN.
Maybe some fog across the NW lower airports, but there is a better
chance for rains across this area, which shouldn`t be too heavy to
result in any restrictions to visibility, or at least for any
amount of time that would require a temporary condition in the
TAFS. CIGS will be difficult to forecast in NW lower. Could see
some of that easterly flow off Lake Huron to bring some IFR to
PLN, maybe staying predominantly VFR at TVC/MBL, but confidence
pretty low there.

It may take awhile to get rid of the fog across APN Wednesday
morning. Confidence is somewhat low on how long VSBY restrictions
will last. The sfc low will only work very slowly east into
Indiana Wednesday, with additional scattered showers wrapping
around it;s nrn periphery, and into nrn Michigan.


Issued at 335 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight thru
Wednesday night as the surface pressure gradient stays rather loose
overhead. Scattered showers will continue to impact most of our
nearshore areas thru Wednesday night as weak low pressure holds over




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