Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 062332
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
632 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC IS DEPARTING THE REGION. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN SUPERIOR. THIS FRONT
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN...IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS LATTER LOW WILL
REACH THE MN/CANADA BORDER BY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP HERE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE AND ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN UPPER MI. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

EARLIER LAKE EFFECT HAS COLLAPSED IN NORTHERN LOWER MI. WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE...SOME FLURRIES (AND JUST MAYBE
DZ/FZDZ) REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEND TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THUS...NOT ONLY SHOULD THAT
FLURRY/DZ RISK END...BUT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE WITH TIME THIS
EVENING (NOT DISSIMILAR FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WON/T BREAK
DOWN QUITE AS EARLY).

IN EASTERN UPPER...BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND WHITEFISH PT. IT WILL REMAIN THERE THRU
SUNSET (WITH DAYTIME ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES WELL NORTH OF
PARADISE)...THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS 1000-850MB WINDS BACK
SW.

THAT LEAVES US PRECIP-FREE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOT
QUITE ALL. INCREASING MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND ACROSS
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -3C...
LAKE MI WILL NOT BE IN POSITION TO OFFER ANY ASSISTANCE. BUT THERE
ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIP. BEST ASCENT AND BEST PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN SUPERIOR...BUT SOME PRECIP SHOULD LEAK SOUTH OF IT
(THANKS TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR). WILL EXPAND LIKELY POPS INTO
EASTERN UPPER MI (W OF I-75) LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EARLY MIN TEMPS...AND
GENERALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TEMP FALL TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

(2/7)SUNDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, DURING THE DAY, THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE
STRUNG OUT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO LAKE HURON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR BELOW 0C OVER N LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FALLING BELOW 50% IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER, AND AT TIMES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION, WILL EXPECT THAT THE CHANCES MOVE UP A LITTLE, BUT WITH THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYERS, WILL EXPECT THAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-55 WILL BE DRY. MOST OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR THROUGH
THE DAY.

(2/8)MONDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY,
THE MOISTURE HOLES BEGIN TO CLOSE UP, AND BY 00Z, THE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BEGIN TO BLOW OUT OF THE NNW. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL GETTING TO -8C BY 00Z. THIS PUTS US ON
THE VERGE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND +2C IN E LAKE SUPERIOR AND N LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS ESPECIALLY BEFORE 18Z.
SO HAVE LOW (MINOR) GENERAL AMOUNTS IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THE NNW
FLOW IS ON ALL OF THE MODELS BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS
BY THE EVENING. IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A LIGHT AMOUNTS NIGHT IN
THE NNW ZONES(MAINLY NEAR TVC AND TO THE WEST), WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MODERATE AMOUNTS, IF A BAND CAN GET GOING OVERNIGHT.

(2/9)TUESDAY...THE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE NNW FLOW LES AREAS TO 00Z.
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE 80%, AND THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -18C. THIS WOULD GIVE GOOD DENDRITE
PRODUCTION, SO WHILE MY INITIAL THOUGHT IS LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS, THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY FOR A HEAVY BAND TO FORM OUT
OF THIS. OF COURSE, THE REASON FOR THE CAUTION IS THAT THE WIND FLOW
HARDLY IS EVER REALIZED THIS FAR OUT. SO WILL MENTION IT IN THE
HWOAPX AND VARIOUS GRAPHICS AS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE
THE STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS....WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS SET TO PAY A WEEKEND
VISIT. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE LEADING TO
LOWER POPS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
AREA...BUT JUST WHERE IT SETS UP AND HOW MUCH ANY SUBSIDENCE
CURTAILS THE LAKE EFFECT IS LEADING TO SOME OF THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS ALSO THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT RISES MOVING INTO
THE AREA THAT COULD DAMPEN THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...BUT THE
SPEED/TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL BE OVERHEAD IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH POPS IN THE FAVORED N/NW SNOW
BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BIT LOWER CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR NOW. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SOME
INTERIOR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS BY SATURDAY...WITH BELOW
ZERO LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW LEVEL WARM/DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP MVFR CIGS IN FOR AWHILE LONGER. THIS
PROCESS INCREASES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL ERODE THE LOW CIGS. CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR THIS WAS
REASONABLE. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LLWS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS (LIGHT FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW)
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING/NOON AS NEXT ROUND OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVE FROM BETTER ORGANIZED ALBERTA CLIPPER.

WINDS SOUTHERLY GENERALLY AOB 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
MI...AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARD FAR NORTHERN MN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE LAKE MI WATERS INTO SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS/WAVES WILL BE LESS AND WILL KEEP THINGS
HEADLINE-FREE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...JZ



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