Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 231517
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH/EAST
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER ONTARIO AND
TAIL END OF UPPER JET ENERGY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW COMBINED WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20+ MPH CLOSER TO THE COASTS OVER PARTS
OF UPPER MICHIGAN LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG US-2 WEST OF ST. IGANCE.

AS DEEPEST MOISTURE/LIGHT PCPN SAGS INTO NORTHERN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEST FORCING/KINEMATICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLOWLY WEAKENING AREA OF PRECIPITATION. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TIMING...BUT KEPT MUCH OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST INTACT. MAY SEE 1-2" OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN /ALIGNED WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING/ WITH
GENERALLY 1/2" OR LESS OVER NORTHERN LOWER. DESPITE NOSE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT...P-TYPE GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE SNOW ALTHOUGH A MIX WITH
A LITTLE RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS COME IN THIS
MORNING.

GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS...CLOUD COVER AND WET BULB EFFECTS...MADE A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES /LOWERING THEM SLIGHTLY IN A
FEW AREAS/. STILL A MILD JANUARY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

OVERVIEW: STRONG W/SW FLOW ABOUT TO PUNCH INTO THE PACIFIC NW
THIS MORNING...FEEDING INTO BROAD RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SPLIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG WAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND BRINGING
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST. IN THE NRN BRANCH...SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW NOW ADVANCING INTO ONTARIO.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS HAS
TAPPED SOME OF THE "WARMER" AIR IN THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TONGUE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT NOW PRESSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. UPPER JET STREAK ALSO ANALYZED
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC. COMBINATION UPPER JET FORCING AND
WARM ADVECTION IS PRODUCING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...SOME
OF WHICH IS SAGGING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING...WHILE TAIL END OF UPPER JET STREAK
SKIRTS THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF QG-ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP STILL LOOKING TO SLOWLY SAG DOWN INTO FAR NRN MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAKENING/DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
TIME BY THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS AXIS OF PRECIP MAY NEVER GET
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE M-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY
EVENING...AND HAVE GRADUATED N-S POPS ACCORDINGLY.

PRECIP TYPE...DESPITE AXIS OF WARMER AIR GETTING STRETCHED INTO
NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY
COOLER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS BACK...0C H8 AIR JUST BARELY
SKIRTING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PARTIALLY ERODED BY EVAP
COOLING PROCESSES. THUS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS SNOW
ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 30 NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. HAVE CONFINED FORECAST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY GIVEN THE
COLDER SFC TEMPS AND BETTER FORCING UP THAT WAY...BUT TO JUST
AROUND AN INCH AT BEST.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF FORCING CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND FALL
APART WHILE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION LEAVING A
SHRINKING LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER LARGELY BELOW THE -10C
LEVEL...TELLTALE SIGN OF DZ/FZDZ POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT (MAY
ACTUALLY SEE SOME FZDZ IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON). THUS GOING FORECAST OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
TRANSITIONING TO FZDZ LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE HOVERS
NEAR OR JUST UNDER -10C. DRIER AIR THEN ADVECTS IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES.
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY PERHAPS BRINGING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR A BIT OF
NORTHEAST FLOW LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE HURON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SHUTTING OFF ANY PRECIPITATION. MILD
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S BUT ONLY THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN FOR MIDWEEK
LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK (AND MONTH) AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN THE MILDER
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LLWS CONDITIONS AT
PLN/TVC/APN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR LAYER
LOOKING TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET AGL. LLWS CONDITIONS
WILL EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRETCHED OUT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY SAG
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN REACHING THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. PLN WILL SEE THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH VSBYS LIKELY
REDUCED TO UNDER 2SM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
DIMINISHES/ENDS THIS EVENING BUT WITH LINGERING FLURRIES/FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS...APN CURRENTLY SITTING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AT PLN/TVC/MBL TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM



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