Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Heavy rain this weekend...

High impact weather potential...Wind gusts to 40 mph will continue
this afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure over Lake Michigan is
lifting north. Stratiform precipitation remained on the west side of
the low throughout today. However, on the east side, temperatures
were able to get into the 70s in some locations. This instability
/CAPES near 200 J/kg/ were enough to help a few thunderstorms
develop out ahead of the low`s cold front. Much of this
precipitation will be out of the area by 17z.

Primary Forecast Concerns...The strong winds associated with the low
will exit with it this evening. Gusts should die down to 30mph this
evening and even more overnight. SCA`s will be needed on parts of
the lakes overnight.

Showers may clip the Lake Michigan shorelines and the UP as the low
lifts north this evening and overnight. Temps cool off enough
overnight for the possibility of a few snowflakes mainly across the
northern parts of the UP. Otherwise...high pressure builds in for
Friday. Clouds begin to increase ahead of next system Friday


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Light Rain Friday Night Dry Saturday then a Soaker Saturday
Night into Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Rain could be heavy at times with
the warm advection on Saturday night into Sunday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...SFC high pressure noses into the Upper
Great Lakes behind the cold front Friday night. Models are
inconclusive of rain moving up the front with the ECMWF still
showing dry weather overnight from a bubble high pushing the front
out of the forecast area, and the GFS with a much less pronounced
sfc ridge, which allows the front to remain in the forecast area and
a rain to break out as a 500 mb jet streak moves up the boundary.
Once the jet streak moves out of the Upper Great Lakes, the area
dries out Saturday as the front moves to the south, on both models.
Saturday night, the next system moves northeast out of the Southern
Plains and moves up the front which has stalled and is expected to
begin moving north as a warm front. Pwats begin to increase through
the night and rain is expected to begin to move into the forecast
area after 03z. Sunday, Pwat increases to around 1.00" by 12z, and
continue to around 1.25" which would put us around the a
climatological record or at least over the 90% moving average. QPF
is around 1.0 to 1.50 in NE Lower along an axis that would be from
around HTL to about 10 miles south of APN. Also, thunder would be
possible along the M-55 corridor as the Showalter index drops to
around 0C by the afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Definitely something to watch with the
Pwat getting to around 1.25" by late in the day on Sunday. With the
rain and forcing moving up the warm front into the region.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

A deep area of low pressure moves from Missouri to Wisconsin on
Sunday night to Monday...swinging a pretty substantial frontal
system through the great lakes at the start of the new week. This
low heads up toward Hudson Bay on pull significantly
cooler air down across the area through mid week.  This storm system
has a wide open gulf to tap into...and models are showing it pumping
ample moisture up through the Mississippi valley to push widespread
rainfall across the area...indicating parts of the lower peninsula
could see 1.5"+ over the 3 days.  The best window for thunder will
be the core of the system brushes by our west...with
strong upper wind support, things could get blustery.  Moisture
begins to strip out on Wednesday. Some members maintain light chance
pops as an option for Wednesday and Thursday...but would not be
surprised if the majority of these two days end up rain free.
Temperatures will begin moderating back to climo by Thursday.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

MVFR cigs expected along the Lake Michigan shoreline through late
afternoon as low pressure moves north over the lake. A few showers
also expected west of I-75 that could bring some MVFR vsbys as
well. Otherwise...showers and a few tstorms east of i-75 early
this afternoon. Expect a slow improving trend overnight. Winds
will gust to 40 mph at times this afternoon and gradually tail off
this evening and overnight.


Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Strong winds to continue on the lakes overnight. Wind gusts to
30kts will continue as a storm moves up Lake Michigan. The gusty
winds will die down somewhat toward daybreak Friday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.


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