Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 050533
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
133 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
FIXED OVER NRN MICHIGAN...ON THE BACKSIDE OF PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. ONE WAVE IN THE FLOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
US...AND THE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IT WAS HELPING SUSTAIN HAVE
ALL DIMINISHED. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS DRYING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S. THERE WERE HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF LAKE AIDED PATCHY
CLOUDS ACROSS NW LOWER WITH H8 TEMPS WITH H8 TEMPS +7 TO +8. THE
DRYING ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGER OPPONENT RIGHT NOW
THOUGH. A WEAKER WAVE IS STILL SEEN DROPPING THIS WAY FROM NW
ONTARIO...WHERE THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

IT`S GONNA BE QUIET. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INTO
THE REGION...SETTLING OVER NRN MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. NW FLOW MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE ST MARY`S/NE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE DYING OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TREND IN SEEING A BIT MORE
ONSHORE AFTERNOON WIND. IT`S GONNA REMAIN COOL ACROSS OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS..WITH THAT NW FLOW KEEPING THE COOLER H8 TEMPS IN PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. FLOW
OFF THE WARMER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CREATE THE BEST
CUMULUS FOR THE DAY IN NRN LOWER...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO
CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. WARMING ALOFT/POORER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MIXING INTO SLOWLY DRYING AIR...PROVIDES
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY DAY. ALSO...SKIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CUMULUS DISSIPATES INTO THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR
AWHILE...UNTIL A WEAK WAVE/CONVECTION EMERGING FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL
BE ABLE TO ADVECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE COOL 40S FOR MANY FOLKS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

NO BETTER WAY TO START OUT A FORECAST THAN TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST
(RARE FOR US METEOROLOGISTS) - THE LATE WEEK PERIOD REMAINS A VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE TIME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHAT
LOOKED LIKE PRETTY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS
AGAIN DEVOLVED INTO A MUCH MORE IFFY SCENARIO...ALL CONTINGENT ON
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/ARRIVAL OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY VERY
SLOWLY TRAVERSING AN INCREASINGLY FLATTER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
REGIME. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO LATER FRIDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN SATURDAY PER GFS TRENDS
(SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND TIMING BY FAR
BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST HEADACHE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THURSDAY LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A DRY DAY
AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS IN A RELATIVE THETA-E MINIMUM WITH LOW
LEVEL RIDGING SLOWER TO DEPART. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN THICKER
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS STILL STUCK BELOW NORMAL BUT AT LEAST STILL
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A WING OF BETTER (READ: NOT GREAT) WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO RAMP UP OVER THE
U.P. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HELPED IN THE LOW LEVELS BY A
BAND OF MODEST FGEN FORCING ALONG AN APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. THE PROBLEM REMAINS THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SUCH THAT I HAVE MY
DOUBTS THAT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A PUSH INTO
EASTERN UPPER. INSTEAD...LOOKING MORE LIKE SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH A BETTER RISK FOR SHOWERS ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST LATER FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT. LOOKING LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT VALUES CRUISING UP TOWARD 1.5
INCHES) SUFFICIENT TO BRING MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING PRECLUDES ANY
WIDESPREAD LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS JUST YET. THUNDER THREAT
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LOW WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE AND ALL THE GOOD INSTABILITY TUCKED TO OUR SOUTH/WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD LIKE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOTS OF ISSUES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY ADDITIONAL WAVES WORKING THROUGH A REDEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES (GO FIGURE). BASED SOLELY ON THE
IDEA THAT WE WILL REMAIN BENEATH RENEWED TROUGHING ALOFT...FEEL THE
PRUDENT THING IS TO MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT SET OF LOWER CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS IT SHOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO KICK OFF A FEW
BOUTS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. MAY
TEND TO SEE THE SHOWER THREAT DWINDLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
SOME HINT FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MAKE A RETURN...WHILE OVERALL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

...MAINLY VFR...

MAYBE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND IN THE VICINITY
OF/JUST NORTH OF APN THROUGH DAYBREAK...DUE TO OVERLAKE INSTABILITY
IN NW LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER WIND FLOW.

OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. NW FLOW MAY BE A BIT
GUSTY AT APN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DYING OFF IN
TIME WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CUMULUS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL MIX WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR...AND
MORE SUN THAN CLOUD EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. NO
SHOWERS TODAY...AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

WILL STILL SEE SOME SPORADIC ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE PRESQUE
ISLE REGION DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE...POSSIBLY INTO TODAY...BUT
PLAN IS HAVING THE ADVISORY EXPIRE...AS THESE GUSTS ARE LIKELY NOT
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE REGION TODAY...SETTLING
IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. NW FLOW MAY BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY ACROSS THE ST
MARY`S/NRN LAKE HURON AREAS...BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE DYING OFF
IN TIME...WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE OTHER NEARSHORES THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SRLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION OVER
THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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