Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 271755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1255 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER NORTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MOVING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS EASTERN UPPER. CURRENT FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK...WITH MOSTLY RAIN OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER...AS NEWBERRY IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING SNOW WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES. RAIN SHOULD
STILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENING HOURS
AS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEPARTS EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER TODAY...RESULTING IN SLUSH COVERED ROADS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: A RELATIVELY MILD AND QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING STEADFAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SOUTH SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STRAITS....WITH THIS FRONT EXTENDING BACK
SOUTHWEST TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. DESPITE
ABUNDANT OVERHEAD CLOUDS...SIMPLY NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION JUST
YET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...OWNING TO A COMPLETE LACK OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE (SEE LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING). NEAREST ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...JUST NOW BUILDING
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...EXTENDING BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING FGEN FORCING.
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT COURTESY OF RATHER ROBUST LOOKING
SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ITSELF PART OF A DEEPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
STILL PROMINENT NORTHEAST EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING POKING WELL
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH SAID SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS
BACKSIDE OFFSETTING WEAK NORTHERN LAKES CAA (SUCH THE STATIONARY
FRONT). UPSTREAM PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TODAY...WITH
PLAINS WAVE ROTATING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...SHEARING OUT JUST AS QUICK
IN THE PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW RACES
NORTHEAST ALONG PRE-EXISTING NORTHERN LAKES BAROCLINIC AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION TRENDS
TODAY...BOTH WITH TYPE AND AMOUNT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE CONCERNS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE.

DETAILS: LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC AXIS WILL SIMPLY REMAIN STEADFAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GRADIENT ITSELF WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN UP SOME. SLOWLY DEEPENING/FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE
ALONG THIS GRADIENT RIGHT UP THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION. ALREADY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE LOW TRACK...SQUARELY PLACING NORTHERN LOWER IN
THE WARM SECTOR. FORCING ITSELF RATHER LIMITED WITHIN THIS WARM
SECTOR...AS IS DEEP MID LEVEL MOISTURE. SEE MORE OF A
DRIZZLE/STRATUS SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS
MORNING...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES CLIPPING THE NORTHWEST LOWER
COASTLINE UP INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME MORE MEANINGFUL SHOWERS INTO THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WELL
AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING HAVE DEPARTED. SIMPLY
PUT...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE
TODAY.

MUCH MORE CHALLENGING CALL FOR EASTERN UPPER...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE EARLY THIS MORNING PEELING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH MORE ROBUST SLUG OF PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
MID MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY SOME RESPECTABLE FORCING
ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT SOME DECENT PRECIP RATES. H8-H7
STRENGTHENING FGEN DYNAMICS LOOK TO SUPPLY MUCH OF THIS
FORCING...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO HELP THE
CAUSE. MOISTURE NOTHING TOO EXTREME...WITH PWAT VALUES HOLDING AT
ABOUT A HALF INCH OR SO. STILL ENOUGH AVAILABLE THAT WHEN TIED WITH
SAID FORCING...COULD EASILY SEE PRECIP AMOUNTS REACH A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MAKING PRECIP TYPE FORECASTING A RATHER FORMIDABLE
CHALLENGE. MUCH LIKE NORTHERN LOWER...CURRENT THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING. IN
ADDITION...LOW PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS DEFINITELY ARGUES FOR A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SURFACE BASED MELTING LAYER IN AREAS NEAR THE
STRAITS TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY RAIN. FURTHER NORTH...MELTING LAYER IS
SHALLOW...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD EXPECT
INTRODUCTION OF HEAVIER PRECIP/FORCING THIS MORNING TO ALLEVIATE
THIS WARM LAYER...DROPPING SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO FREEZING...
CHANGING MIXED PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW. SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED...BOTH A RESULT OF WARM LOW LEVELS AND A REMARKABLY
DEEP OFF THE DECK PROFILE WARMER THAN -10C. UPSHOT TO ALL THE
ABOVE...FEEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH
UPWARDS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA
COUNTY...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS ONE HEADS TOWARDS THE
STRAITS. WET/GREASY NATURE OF SNOW WILL NO DOUBT LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. WILL HIT THIS CONCERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
AND IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

DYNAMICS QUICKLY END LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST ENOUGH CAA TO
KICK OFF SOME LAKE RESPONSE HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT IN FAVORED W-NW
FLOW AREAS. BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROTTLED BACK GIVEN LOW CBL AND VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THRU UPPER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND THEN THRU NRN LWR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -15 TO -20 C IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL CERTAINLY INCREASING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AND ACTIVATE
THE LAKES FOR LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK (AT LEAST). INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-6 KFT THRU
MONDAY...WITH ANY AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE REMAINING UNDER THE
INVERSION...AND FAIRLY LIMITED AT THAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND THEN NW...THUS TARGETING THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT
REGIONS OF ERN UPR AND NW/N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUT WITH RATHER
SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND LIMITED/SHALLOW MOISTURE...NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT (AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR EACH
FORECAST PERIOD THRU MONDAY). HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ON SUNDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 20S FOR MONDAY. LOW TEMPS IN THE
TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER COOL FOR MONDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS ACROSS
NRN LWR MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED LAKE SNOW
PRODUCTION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT. STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT./..ALLOWING A WEAK
WAVE TO SWING THRU NRN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC
ENHANCEMENT TO ONGOING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE SLIDING THRU MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THRU THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
TEENS THRU THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MOSTLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING FROM IFR/MVFR
WITH FOG/MIST AND RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE OVER TVC AND PLN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR AFTER THE RAIN DEPARTS. THERE WILL BE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...MLR
AVIATION...TJL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.