Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 131654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1254 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Issued at 1007 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Beautiful weather remains on tap for nrn Michigan again, with a
relative ridge of high pressure and ridging aloft stretched out
across the Great Lakes. This lies between remnants of Irma to our
south, and a stationary frontal zone across Ontario, which is
connected to low pressure in the nrn plains. Outside of some lake
stratus and fog continuing to push into western Mackinac county,
and the nrn edge of cirrus/narrow corridor on mid level cloud
from Irma into areas near Saginaw Bay, skies were sunny. The
stratus will burn off over the next couple hours, while the Irma
clouds are likely to reach a little further into the srn CWA
through the day. Neither of these will impact high temperatures,
which will be very similar to yesterday, in the upper 70s to lower
80s most areas. Light winds leading to lake breezes. The earlier
potential for a touch of light rain from Irma for areas closer to
Saginaw Bay seems far fetched despite weak echoes on radar (which
are not reaching ground/virga). Fcst soundings throughout the
atmosphere are quite depleted in moisture. Upstream obs over the
last several hours verifying that.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...Quiet wx continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure remains centered across
much of the Great Lakes region early this morning...resulting in a
continuation of mainly clear skies and very pleasant temps. Remnants
of Irma have reached the Bootheel of Missouri...composed only of
some lingering showers and little to no thunder or significant wind.

As we head into today...extratropical remnants of Irma will take an
eastward turn into the Ohio Valley. Northern fringe of moisture
shield associated with Irma will lift northward into Central Lower
Michigan as the low center begins to move thru the Ohio Valley. The
edge of the associated cloud shield will clip our far SE CWA...
providing just a slight chance of a passing shower today for
locations near Saginaw Bay. Otherwise...the rest of our CWA will see
another mainly sunny and warm mid September day...with afternoon
highs warming back into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Low temps
tonight will cool back into the low to mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...Generally quiet weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Remnants of Hurricane Irma continue to press off
to our east during the day Thursday while troughing digs across the
West Coast. As a result, northern Michigan lies between the two
systems with increasing heights/ridging aloft. Combined with surface
high pressure atop the region yields rain-free conditions and above
normal temperatures.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Not a whole lot of concern
through the forecast period as little in the way of sensible weather
is anticipated. The one possible exception arrives Thursday night as
an area of low pressure begins to ramp up across the central plains
and a nearly stationary boundary over Ontario begins to show signs
of gradual northward movement. As a result, just enough support/
moisture may spark off an isolated isentropically driven shower or
two across sections of eastern Upper. Otherwise, rain-free
conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies are expected Thursday
through Friday across the entire forecast area.

Above normal temperatures will continue to categorize the end of the
work week with highs expected to top out in the mid-upper 70s to low
80s...some 5-15 degrees above normal. Nighttime lows remaining mild
as well...ranging from near 50 in the coolest interior spots to the
mid-upper 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

High impact weather potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday-
Sunday night.

Conditions turn a bit more active this weekend, at least briefly.
Focus revolves around Sunday through Sunday night as the
aforementioned area of low pressure ramping up across the central
plains quickly progresses northeastward into southwestern Ontario by
Sunday morning. As the system continues to trek northeastward
throughout the day, a cold front is expected to sweep across the
region, accompanied by showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
before clearing the area Sunday night.

Quiet and cooler weather returns to start next week before trends
suggest another bout of late season warmth arrives by the middle of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Relative high pressure will remain draped over the region this TAF
period. Winds will be fairly light with a tendency for more lake
breezes Thursday afternoon. Skies will be rather clear with just
some high level cirrus possible tonight, and afternoon cumulus
Thursday. Next chance of precipitation doesn`t arrive until


Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Thursday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Aside from a slight chance of
a passing shower today around Saginaw Bay...dry wx and mainly clear
skies are expected across our entire region thru late week.




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