Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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689
FXUS63 KAPX 211434
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1034 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

More cloud cover out there than yesterday, thanks to mid/high
clouds driven by deep and persistent warm advection. This will be
the general trend thru the day, countered by a somewhat warmer
airmass to work with. End result should be max temps fairly close
to yesterdays. Earlier virga has thinned out considerably;
nothing out there so much as resembles even a sprinkle, and
surface obs not showing any clouds below 12k agl.

Some minor adjustments to increase cloud cover. No major changes
made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Well above normal temperatures and breezy...

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated fire danger this afternoon
due to warm temperatures and gusty winds.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight upper air analysis reveals a
fairly amplified pattern across the CONUS with short wave energy
dumping into the western CONUS (downstream from an very energetic
Pacific jet)...and downstream ridging across the Great Lakes into
the SE states. Surface high pressure remains anchored along the
eastern seaboard and low pressure migrating through the northern
plains. In between...a tight P-gradient remains across the midwest
and into the far western Great Lakes driving a narrow theta-e
ridge and corridor of mid and high cloud cover toward the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal through tonight. How warm can
we get today...and elevated fire danger issues.

High pressure will largely remain along the eastern seaboard
through the today before edging into the Atlantic tonight.
Upstream low pressure swings into Canada and eventually drives a
cold front/associated showers through the region on Sunday. There
are some warm advection showers close by...advancing through the
upper Midwest/far western Great Lakes this morning...most of which
should remain west of our area through tonight (might see a few
showers trying to sneak into the far western part of the CWA late
tonight). But will keep the forecast dry through tonight.

Meanwhile...satellite trends and RH forecasts all suggest we see
a bit more mid/high cloud cover today as compared to Friday. This
does make it a bit tricky for forecast highs. Forecast soundings
reveal a slightly warmer lower level thermal profile...although
with reduced sunshine. Have started with observed highs from
Friday and shaved maybe a degree or so off for today...with a
couple of record high temperatures potentially in jeopardy.

Record temperatures for October 21...

Traverse City821953
Sault Saint Marie701978/1920
Alpena 78 1920
Houghton Lake 82 1947
Pellston 78 1953
Gaylord 83 1953

Finally...breezy conditions anticipated today...perhaps more so
than Friday with stronger winds forecast at the top of the mixed
layer. Combined with mid 70s highs and recent stretch of dry
weather...will lead to elevated fire danger through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Warm again Sunday then cooling off...

Our recent stretch of unseasonably warm days will be ending but not
before one more day of relative warmth. A surface cold front moving
across the region Sunday afternoon and evening will assure that it
will come to an end. This front will be accompanied by a band of
rain showers. Upper support (dynamics) associated with this feature
will be weakening so do not anticipate much if any thunder (perhaps
a stray rumble or two, especially if the better instability of the
nam comes true). Temperatures once again well above normal with
highs ranging from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south.
Shower activity should shift off to our east by late evening with
skies likely clearing out. Increasing clouds Monday with chances for
a few afternoon showers (especially eastern zones) as the next
front/upper trough approach from the northwest while surface low
pressure possibly moves up from the south. Not as warm but still
above normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Big questions remain over whether a northern stream trough phases
with energy moving up from the south. If this were to occur then
low pressure would likely rapidly deepen across Lake Huron Monday
night into Tuesday. Models remain on the almost but not quite band
wagon with the ECMWF 21/00z run now on board too (for not
phasing). Low pressure still moves up from the south but it is
shown to speed by to the east while only deepening a little. Still
too early to call but will keep the increasing pops Monday night
into Tuesday for now and see how things evolve with time. The
northern stream trough by itself would likely contain showers, and
with colder 850 mb temperatures lead to increasing over lake
instability into at least Tuesday night if not Wednesday. Still
can`t rule out it getting cold enough for a few wet snow flakes in
the higher terrain. Warm advection then kicks in from a possible
Plains system toward the end of the week bringing more shower
chances. Temperatures will continue to cool off through midweek
before increasing a bit toward week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...LLWS issues continue...

VFR weather continues. But...stronger winds aloft continue also
leading to nighttime LLWS and gustier winds through the day.

More cloud cover today as compared to Friday...of the mid and
high cloud variety. Regional radar plots do show spotty returns
pushing into lower Michigan from the SW. But returns are mainly
virga given the dry air in the lower levels (although a few
raindrops in a couple places is possible today).

Cold front presses into the region tonight and will bring lowering
cloud cover late (still VFR). Showers with the front are looking
to hold off until around or after 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Gustier winds and small craft advisory conditions will persist on
the Lake Michigan nearshore areas today through Sunday and will
extend small craft advisories accordingly. Winds/waves may remain
just below small craft advisory criteria for the remainder of the
nearshore areas...and will hold off on issuing additional SCA`s
for today. Otherwise...dry weather and partly cloudy conditions
anticipated through tonight. Cold front arrives Sunday and will
bring a period of showers through the region.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA



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