Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181043
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016

...A few showers/storms today, increasing precip chances to finish
the week...

Overview: Overnight surface and upper air analysis reveals broad
high pressure and low amplitude upper level ridging across the
Great Lakes. Overall quiet weather with some fog out there this
morning. But there is one small slow moving cluster of showers
moving across Lake Michigan toward Leelanau county that formed along
a lake breeze boundary in eastern Wisconsin last evening. It was
producing a fair amount of lightning a few hours back, but has
been steadily weakening in the last hour or two.

Today: Overall quiet morning to start. Had tentatively put a
chance of showers through 6 am in the Leelanau/Benzie/Grand
Traverse counties areas to account for decaying pocket of showers
coming across Lake Michigan. However, given recent radar trends,
that may not be necessary. Otherwise, early fog and mainly sunny
skies to start the day. We will warm up nicely into the lower to
middle 80s for the afternoon. And with higher dewpoint air still
across the region (dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s) we should
be able to muster somewhere between 500 and 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
across inland areas although with a bit of a warm nose to overcome
around 650 MB. But with lighter winds and afternoon inland
convergence, isolated to scattered showers and perhaps some
thunder is a possibility this afternoon. Best chances may be
across NE lower Michigan in the tip of the mitt (Presque
Isle/Alpena counties) where strongest low level convergence is
typically found in SW flow regimes.

Tonight: Any afternoon showers/storms fizzle through early evening
with overall quiet weather for much of the night. Fairly potent
short wave trough will be digging into the upper midwest toward
Friday morning, driving a cold front into the far western Great
Lakes. Deeper moisture/instability axis will be leaning into the
region by morning. But guidance timing at this juncture suggests
associated showers/storms will largely remain to our west through
the overnight period. Inherited a slight chance of showers/storms
for the western half of the CWA late overnight which is fine for
now in case any warm advection driven precip sneaks into the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016

(8/19)Friday...The models are beginning the ramp up to the main rain
that will take place on Saturday. The 500 mb trough axis is just
beginning to swing into the N Plains with the sw flow along over E
Upper and portions of N Lower. At 18z, the sfc trough is beginning
to push into the forecast area. The ECMWF has the rain over the
entire state, with the GFS keeping most of the rain to the west of
the forecast area. The system sinks a little more south and then
sets up over the state. The result is small waves traveling up the
sfc trough which will bring periods of rain and thunderstorms
overnight.

(8/20)Saturday...Rain will continue with sfc low moving into N lower
the GFS and ECMWF have the core of the sfc low track within about 25-
50 miles of each other. If this were winter, this would be a problem
with the precipitation type, but in this case, it may be the
dividing line between thunder/no thunder. Won`t be that specific,
but will begin to push the rain showers and slight chance of thunder
in E Upper as the system moves through during the day. Overnight, as
the sfc low moves east of the Upper Great Lakes, the drier air will
move into the region and we should see the rain beginning to wind
down. The GFS has a lot less rain than the ECMWF, while they both
have the 500 mb trough just west of the state. Would think that the
issue would be drizzle as the sfc low moves out, low level moisture
continues in the region and the 500 mb trough moves in. However,
will keep it damp for the time being.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)...The week starts off cool and
dry in a relative sense, although we will be at or just a bit below
normal (around 75F at Gaylord), Sunday and Monday. Tuesday gets us a
bit greater than normal and solidly above normal Wednesday. There is
a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday in E Upper
as the warm front moves into the region again, and high pressure
builds into the region from the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Some morning fog and reduced vsbys will impact the terminal sites
through 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail today and
tonight. Low end chance for afternoon (heating of the day) showers
to pop over parts of northern lower Michigan, and may impact the
APN terminal site. Mainly clear tonight although cloud cover will
begin to increase late in advance of a storm system that will
impact us starting Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Light winds/waves will continue for today and tonight along with
no significant weather. Stronger southwesterly winds develop on
Friday along with increasing chances for showers/storms. However,
winds/waves are not expected to reach small craft advisory
criteria.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Adam



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