Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191849
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...FREEZE FOR MANY TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ENE THROUGH
QUEBEC...DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH AXIS AND RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE
CHANNEL THROUGH EAST UPPER AND FAR NRN LOWER. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING INTO SW ONTARIO AND
NW MN. LITTLE BIT OF MAY SUN AND LAKE MOISTURE ASSISTANCE FROM
COLD AND GUSTY NW WINDS...A POCKET OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FIRED OFF EARLIER OVER LAND FROM GAYLORD NORTH INTO
EASTERN UPPER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PREVAILED TO MAKE THIS A
GLOOMY DAY...LOW LEVEL COLD/MOIST AIR TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION
IN CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW HOLES HAVE OPENED UP AT TIMES.
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAS FROM FAR NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. BEHIND IT...CLEAR SKIES
MARKED STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/WAA ALOFT AND DRYING AHEAD OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER...AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...SURELY A
CHILLY MID-LATE DAY IN MAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS FAR AS WEATHER IS CONCERNED IN THE ABOVE
SYNOPTIC SETUP. SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL END WITH
NIGHTFALL...WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING...MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS. UPSTREAM WAVE ACROSS SW ONTARIO AND NW MN TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND DRYING TO PLOW THROUGH THE
MOIST CLOUD LAYER. CLEARING SKIES ENSUE...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALL
AREAS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

STILL LOOKING FOR NEAR FREEZING AND SUB-FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INHIBIT AND ACTUAL
FROST ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR EXPOSED/OPEN AREAS. THE CHANCE
FOR SEEING TRUE FROST ON THE GROUND AND THE COLDEST OF TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE...WILL BE IN
THOSE LOW LYING AREAS PROTECTED FROM THE WIND. THESE LOW LYING AREAS
WHICH ARE LOWER THAN THEIR IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE
THE FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ADDITIONAL FROST (FREEZE?) POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS STEADY-STATE
AND AN AMPLIFIED ONE THROUGH THE MIDTERM...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
REMAINING STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEAST NOAM CENTERED
TROUGHING. WHILE CURRENT COLD ANOMOLIES WILL PASS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AND...THERE LIES THE PROBLEM...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT FROST FORMATION (POSSIBLE FREEZE
THURSDAY NIGHT). PATTERN WILL BE A DRY ONE...WITH ANY HINTS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL SOMETIME LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...AND
REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DECAYING LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY...SAFELY CONFINING
ALL ASSOCIATED RAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. ONLY
OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST APPEARS TO MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIED TO PASSING WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. SO...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...REMAIN A MORE FORMIDABLE
CHALLENGE. PER THE TYPICAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER STAGES OF
MAY...OVERHEAD UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS GOES THROUGH SOME QUICK
MODIFICATION...ALLOWING HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. SIMILAR READINGS THURSDAY GIVES
WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN LAKES. AS FOR LOWS...SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND HINTS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE
SHOULD PREVENT READINGS FROM REALLY TANKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SIMPLE REMNANT CHILLY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S. UNFORTUNATELY...REALLY STARTING TO LOOK AS IF
THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FROST (FREEZE?) EVENT AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT ONCE AGAIN. ALL STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER...SUPPORTING LOWS VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
EXPECTED TONIGHT (UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S). PATTERN RECOGNITION OF
ANTICIPATED PATTERN SURE SUPPORTS THESE COLDER TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT KEEPING NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES
COOLER...DOWN TO THE MID 30S IN SOME AREAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF
SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND WARM UP TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS APPROACHES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL COMES FROM THE MODELS HANDLING OF
THE 500MB TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH WILL
BE PROPAGATING THE LOW OUT OF THE ROCKIES. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

....MVFR TO VFR...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A COLD POOL OF AIR....STUCK UNDER AN
INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. THESE MVFR CIGS ACROSS TVC/MBL MAY BE JUST ABOUT
OVER...PER NEAR/UPSTREAM CIGS 3500-4500FEET. DAYTIME "HEATING"
WILL TEMPORARILY BRING CIGS INTO LOW END VFR AT APN/PLN THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 04Z
AND 08Z AND REMAIN SKC THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NW...WITH SOME
WIND STILL TONIGHT. GUSTS TOMORROW AT MAINLY PLN/APN AND MORE OUT
OF THE WEST.

WINDS


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LOW LEVEL COLD AND MOIST AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. MAIN STORY ARE THE WINDS IN SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES. ADVISORY LEVEL NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. WARMING WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY TOMORROW
WHILE THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...CERTAINLY
ENDING ANY NEED FOR HEADLINES FOR AWHILE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ016>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346>348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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