Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280358
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHOWERS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM CANADA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SAME AS THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...WITH THE EXCITING EXCEPTION
BEING SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO
FORM IN SOME LOCALES...SO CIRRUS NOT HINDERING COOLING AND FOG
FORMATION MUCH. IT HELPS THAT DEW POINTS RAN HIGHER TODAY...MID
50S TO NEAR 60F AT EARLY EVENING. SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO CLOUD
COVER...LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
ACTIVE WEATHER FROM ARIZONA UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
PLAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...CUTOFF MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION STILL MEANDERING OVER THE MIDWEST MAKING IT/S WAY
NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA INTO SRN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL BANDS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW NOW SPREADING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. ALSO...POCKET OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE LOW CENTER AND RESULTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
HAD PRODUCED A FEW CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN MISSOURI INTO
IOWA THROUGH THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA EXPECTED TO OPEN
UP/DAMPEN OUT AND SLIDE BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING AN END OUR PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES. MEANWHILE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NOAM WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OUT A BIT
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIPS DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GOING INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONT/TROUGH AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND FOLD INTO
NRN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY PUSH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY. TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AND 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...VARIABLE FALL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FRIDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE FALL-LIKE VARIABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS FORESEEN FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS. AT THE MOMENT...WE CONTINUE TO BASK IS SOME LATE SUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH (LOVING IT!) AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THAT TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST BUT IN PIECES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO...BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER IN EARNEST BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...OUR MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK IS ON A
LEAD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT UP
AND OVER THE DOMINATING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND DROP BACK THROUGH
ONTARIO...HELPING PUSH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SOMETIME LATER MONDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS WHICH HAS WAVERED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TIGHTENING AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO COUPLED WITH
DECENT UPPER SUPPORT (AND A HINT OF JET FORCING) SHOULD DRIVE A NICE
BAND OF RAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THIS PRECIP DRIFTING SOUTH AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WEAKENING FGEN FORCING CERTAINLY SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL WANING TREND TO PRECIP COVERAGE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...BUT
STILL BELIEVE MANY SPOTS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...PROBABLY
LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR PESKY STRATUS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS RIGHT ON INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. SHALLOW BUT STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BENEATH LINGERING WARMTH ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SHOULD EASILY SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BANKS UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BASED SIMPLY
ON THE PATTERN...AM A BIT CONCERNED STRATUS MAY LINGER RIGHT ON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN PART OF WEDNESDAY..."RECYCLING"
NORTHWARD INTO MIDWEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL SURELY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AND
NOT AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE
READINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT EVEN THOSE...AS H9 TEMPS IN THE
3-8C RANGE SUPPORT READINGS STUCK IN THE 50S FOR MANY SPOTS...
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW.
READINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NOT EXACTLY HIGH CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IF A
MORE CLOUDY SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK READINGS BACK THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKING FANTASTIC AS PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING
ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PUSH 80 DEGREES GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED DEEPER MIXING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
THAT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ITS ALREADY AMPLIFIED NATURE OUT WEST...THIS ONE
LOOKS QUITE ENERGETIC. NICE GULF TAP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT COULD
RESULT IN SOME DECENT RAINS...WITH A THUNDER THREAT CERTAINLY THERE
AS WELL. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING MUCH COLDER AND PERHAPS SHOWERY AT
TIMES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR. WELCOME TO FALL!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT MBL/PLN/APN WITH VARYING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
RATHER DRY AIRMASS. GROUND FOG WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES BUT TVC...WITH IFR OCCURRING SOMEWHAT INFREQUENTLY. SOME
CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF FOG WE WILL BE
COMFORTABLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LAKE BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS/MINIMAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN ILL-DEFINED FRONT WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN MORE
NE BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





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