594
FXUS63 KAPX 140450
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1250 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy/smoky skies continue into Monday

- Gradual warming trend through midweek

- Next chances for more widespread rain arrive Wednesday/Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low-amplitude upper trough continues to
cross the western Great Lakes through the remainder of the day with
flow becoming more zonal through at least midweek. Surface high
pressure will largely remain in place through this same time frame.
However, a weak frontal boundary/surface trough will cross the area
on Monday, perhaps with at least a brief uptick in cloud cover and
low chances for a few showers.

Forecast Details: Plenty of wildfire smoke aloft resulting in
hazy/smoky skies this afternoon with occasional reductions in
surface visibility. Otherwise, little in the way of sensible weather
anticipated through tonight with lows falling into the 50s and low
60s area-wide.

Early Monday, decaying frontal boundary with limited large scale
ascent will approach from the northwest. While inconsequential
overall, an uptick in cloud cover and perhaps a couple of rogue
showers will be possible across eastern upper and the tip of the
mitt -- primarily mid-Monday morning through mid-afternoon.
Smoke concentrations expected to be less than today, but still
some haziness anticipated tomorrow as well. Highs in the 80s
area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Pattern Forecast: By midweek, broad upper-level troughing expected
to be evident across much of Canada into the northern tier of the
CONUS while ridging begins to build over the southeast states.
Plenty of moisture transport into the nation`s midsection,
including the Great Lakes, by this time frame on the heels of
increasing southwesterly winds. Attention revolves around a
quasi-stationary W- E oriented boundary expected to be draped
from Quebec into the northern Plains mid-late week, providing
the focus for surface waves to ride along and repeated rounds of
showers and storms.

Forecast Details: While confidence is high in more active weather
returning across the Midwest and Great Lakes mid-late week, lower
confidence prevails with respect to the details and potential for
repeated rounds of convection/heavy rain. Confidence in the latter
largely hinges around placement of that nearly stalled W-E oriented
boundary and how long its parked over the same region before being
shunted off to the east. Where it does set up, repeated rounds of
showers and storms are likely with locally heavy rain possible given
ensemble means suggesting PWATs in the climatological top 25th
percentile for mid-July. WPC noting this potential as well with all
of the upper and mid-MS Valley, and Great Lakes highlighted in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

By Friday, higher probabilities prevail for quieter weather with
high pressure at least briefly settling over the region. Confidence
diminishes thereafter with a myriad of solutions possible heading
into next weekend.

Otherwise, very warm temperatures anticipated Tuesday -- potentially
into the low-mid 90s in favored downsloping areas, but some question
as to whether upper-level smoke lingers and limits daytime heating
to any extent. Potential warmth and mugginess continues Wednesday
with cooler temperatures expected through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

HZ/FU will continue to be the main aviation story thru the TAF
period. MVFR to low end VFR visibilities will be common today,
with perhaps some improvement as we head into this evening. May
even see a period of IFR conditions early this morning at KAPN
as fog/mist develops. Expecting cigs to remain VFR with some
passing high clouds/smoke and some higher based cumulus this
afternoon. No significant wind concerns through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MSB