000
FXUS63 KAPX 280524
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVERHEAD...AND WILL REMAIN SO TONIGHT.
SOME THIN CIRRUS IS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ON
WED. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH SINGLE-DIGIT READINGS ALREADY COMMON IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN CURRENT OBS...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON COAST IN NE
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ARNOTT