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000
FXUS63 KMQT 152011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN FLANK OF A TROUGH OVER NRN
ONTARIO TO THE SRN END OF JAMES BAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SE CORNER OF MANITOBA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND
SOME SCT/ISOLD -SHRA INTO NW MN. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
PERSISTED BTWN A 995 MB LOW BTWN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A
RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO SRN MN. WNW WINDS HAVE GUSTED AT OR
ABOVE 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI AND TO NEAR 45 MPH WHERE TERRAIN
HAS BOOSTED THE WINDS AT CMX. SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 750 MB HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 30F WITH RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PCT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DRY AIR WINDS HAS RESULTED IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW
HALF OF UPPER MI. EVEN THERE...WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING
WITH THE SHRTWV MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED.
SO...ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF UPPER MI
WITH NRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 4C NORTH TO TO 9C
SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE LOWER 70S INLAND SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND FAVORABLE MIXING WILL
AGAIN DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH RH VALUES TO AROUND 25
PERCENT SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS ONLY TO AROUND 10 MPH...THE
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

TO START THE LONG TERM...AT 12Z THU...SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW...STICKING AROUND THROUGH FRI. THIS
WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART THU THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE WORK
WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN CONUS AND DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL DRAW A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD
TO NEAR THE CWA FOR SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE CWA...BUT MOST MODELS SHOW PRECIP EITHER N OR S OF THE CWA OR A
COMBINATION THEREOF. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE EVER VOLATILE
CONVECTION. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THU AND FRI IN THE 60S AND
70S.

MON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM CLOSING
OFF OVER MN AND EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. CONVECTION IS
ESPECIALLY HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME FRAME...FURTHER DECREASING
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN A BIT MOVING INTO MID WEEK IF THE
UPPER LOW DOES INDEED MOVE TOWARD OR OVER THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WNW WINDS TO GUST OVER 20 KTS AT
ALL THE SITES TODAY...STRONGEST AT KCMX AND KSAW. ONLY SKY COVER
WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

EXPECT WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 KNOTS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BLO 25 KTS. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PUSHING IN FROM NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB