Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250921
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST PLACES EXCEPT
THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST HAVE TURNED OVER TO SNOW AS 850MB TEMPS
RAPIDLY DROP TO -12C OR LOWER BEHIND THE SFC LOW. OTHER THAN NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A LULL OF
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MOVING NE
INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY STILL
OVER THE IOWA AND SRN WI WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OWED TO THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS WI AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SYSTEM SNOW
TO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 2 IN
MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES TONIGHT. RAPID UPDATE NWP SUGGEST UP TO
0.50 INCH OF LIQUID TONIGHT /WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING UP TO
0.75 INCH/. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY FAST TO
THE NE AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE AT MOST 3 G/KM THIS
EVENING...AM EXPECTING QPF OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. WITH
SNOW RATIOS RISING TO 10-15:1 THIS EVENING...THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOCUSING
ON AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF US 2. AM CURRENTLY THINKING THAT SYSTEM
PCPN WILL DIMINISH OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCE TO THE
NORTH...SO AS OF NOW WILL LEAVE DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES OUT OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PLANNED. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXPECT BETTER LES BANDS TO DEVELOP IN THE N-NW
FLOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING AT IWD RIGHT NOW. CURRENT SNOW
RATIOS ARE FAIRLY LOW...GENERALLY 10-15:1 DUE TO THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION STILL FAIRLY HIGH. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BECOME HIGHER...CLOSER TO
20:1. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES AS
IS...WITH SIMILAR FORECAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING STORM
TOTAL OF 5-8 INCHES ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE...4-7 INCHES
KEWEENAW...4-9 INCHES N-CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND 4-7 INCHES EAST OF
MARQUETTE. BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

THE LES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN ALONG WITH
BACKING PBL WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING LES
TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW AND ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE TUE AFTN. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW BUT END THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS EAST DUE TO W-NW FLOW HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THERE
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT OFF BOTH SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...

BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT OVER EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA TO
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND SFC
LOW WITH SWATH OF SNOW OVER THE MID CONUS SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM SLIDES FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TOWARD UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. EVEN THOUGH SFC LOW WILL BE WELL TO
SOUTH...TROUGHING SFC-925MB DEVELOPS VCNTY OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR
MICHIGAN IN RESPONSE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SHARP TEMP
GRADIENT FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SE/S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MOISTURE TO H85 WITH H85 TEMPS OF -10C
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN INTO THE
EASTERN CWA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF ENHANCEMENT FACTORS
SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY OVER EAST CWA MOST OF WEDNESDAY. COULD
SEE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND TEMPS BUT INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. LATER ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS BECOME W-WNW BLO H85 WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE LES FOR
THE EASTERN CWA.

MEANWHILE...EXPECT LES ON THE KEWEENAW IN WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE AREAS OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY IN WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH
PASSAGE. NNE WINDS H95-H85 WITH NORTH WINDS AT SFC AND TEMPS AT H85
OF -15C LEADING TO DELTA T/S NEARING 20C SUPPLEMENTED WITH LARGER
SCALE FORCING FM THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN HEAVY LES FOR FAR
WEST UPR MICHIGAN...VCNTY OF GOGEBIC COUNTY...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. SHORTWAVE LIKELY WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA AWAY FM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS. MOISTURE LACKING WITH H7 MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG.
THROUGH AND NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS POINT TO MAYBE 6 HOURS OF SNOW AT
IMT/ESC...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW FOR
AREAS AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR. WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ESPECIALLY WINDY...SO ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME BLSN DOES NOT SEEM THAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

INTO THANKSGIVING...WILL BE IMPROVING TREND TO WEATHER AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR...BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHILLY AIRMASS WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING INVERSIONS BLO 5KFT BY 00Z FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS WEST HALF AND AROUND 20 DEGREES EAST HALF...WELL BLO
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER AND LIKELY NEAR A RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR
THIS DAY. TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION HOVER AROUND -18C THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH WILL BE PLENTY GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH LK
SUPERIOR WATER TEMPS NOW AROUND 3-4C. SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY FLUFFY
AS MAJORITY OF CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S
COULD BE PUSHING 30:1...SO THAT FLUFF COULD ADD UP QUICKLY.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WILL NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW HEADLINES FOR AREAS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. ISOLD WARNING AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
FAVORED BY NNE WINDS... BUT MOSTLY EXPECT ADVY TYPE SNOWS. NO
HEADLINES THOUGH NOW WITH CURRENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT STILL RUNNING
ITS COURSE. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AND WITHIN THE EWHO GRAPHICS.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ON THANKSGIVING CLEARS THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS OUT SOME...BUT STAYS WNW COMPARED TO THE WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS INDICATED 24 HR AGO. RESULT IS TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AT
925-850MB STAYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. THUS WHEN THE
NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND UPPER LEVEL JET PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...MODELS NOW SHOW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL STAY
MOSTLY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. H7
MIXING RATIOS 3-4G/KG SUGGEST WHEREVERE THAT BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS
IT COULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE. MAIN ISSUE OVER UPR MICHIGAN FM THAT
SYSTEM MAY BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER EASTERN CWA OFF LK MICHIGAN
DUE TO FORCING FM THE SYSTEM GLANCING THE AREA...SSW WINDS
SFC-H85...AND H85 TEMPS -10C OR LOWER. MOST IDEAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
INTO LUCE COUNTIES. INCREASED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS MARKEDLY. LIKELY A
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS AT LEAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVES QUICKLY FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT
BETTER FORCING AND THUS QPF STAYS ALONG AND NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR.
SOME INDICATION OF AT LEAST LGT PRECIP OVER THE CWA THOUGH. WARM
LAYER H8-H9 BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS AND
WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN AS PTYPE OVER MUCH OF CWA BY SATURDAY
AFTN. GFS HAS MAINLY SNOW WITH A LITTLE RAIN WORKING IN OVER SCNTRL.
COULD BE FZRA IF WARMING AT SFC IS DELAYED. BLENDED TWO SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW AND CAME UP WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND MOSTLY SNOW IN
MORNING TRENDING TOWARD MORE RAIN/FZRA IN AFTN. FZRA MAY BE NOT AS
LONG LASTING THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE WARMER ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT
AS SFC WARMING WOULD BE MORE THAN IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST. EITHER
WAY...IF THE PRECIP OCCURS...COULD BE KIND OF A MESSY DEAL.

BECOMES COLDER AGAIN /H85 TEMPS -16C TO -20C/ BEHIND THAT SYSTEM TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND. MORE LES EXPECTED FOR NW FLOW AREAS ALONG LK
SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW LACKING THOUGH AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1035MB EXPANDS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LES COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS WINDS
PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WELL OFFSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAULT STE MARIE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. N-NW GALES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE WED
INTO WED NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR N-NE WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006-007-085.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001-003-005>007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ004-005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ013-014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MRD









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