Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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164
FXUS63 KIWX 250028
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
728 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 724 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move through
northeast Indiana, south-central Lower Michigan, and northwest
Ohio this evening. Colder air will filter in later tonight into
Saturday with snow showers possible into mainly northwest Indiana
and lower Michigan. Temperatures will trend warmer Sunday into
early next week with the next chance for rain Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Cancelled Severe Thunderstorm Watch as event could never really
take off given lacking moisture return into warm sector and
stratus fill in between pre-frontal trough/system cdfnt mid-late
aftn. Could still see a few isolated wind gusts approach 40-45
mph with showers/embedded thunder (tied to cdfnt) along/east of
I-69 through 2-3z given strong background flow. Only minor
adjustments made to the fcst otherwise into tonight/Saturday as
colder air filters in post-frontal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Convective event slowly unfolding in what is more of a typical
March/April airmass with much of the area well rooted in the warm
sector as low pressure tracks across far NW parts of the area this
afternoon. Record already broke at Ft Wayne with a high of 69. Most
areas seeing temps in the 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.
Lakeshore areas have not gotten to enjoy the warm air thus far. Pre
frontal trough has been attempting to light up and initially
struggled as strong EML kept things capped and updraft strength
limited. Shortwave trough now approaching and allowing for uptick in
convective initiation and subsequent severe threat, especially
into SE Michigan as well as portions of NW Ohio. Will need to
watch these areas but main area of concern now highlighted by
recent SWOMCD issued for convective threat along the cold front
with radar showing very disorganized development from NW Indiana
into portions of Illinois. To summarize, strong to severe storms
still possible into the evening hours with high res models
suggesting potential at least scattered reports of wind damage in
any LEWP/QLSC signatures and a risk for large hail/isolated
tornadoes in discrete cells or in notches on above mentioned
convective lines. Severe threat should end rapidly by 3Z with
colder air rapidly falling in behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Few changes to long term with focus on severe weather threat in near
term.

Cold air will be firmly entrenched at the start of the period with
lake enhanced snow showers across at least the northwestern quarter
to third of the area. Local accumulations of around an inch will be
possible with some slick spots not out of the realm of possibility.
It will be blustery and cold with highs only in the lower to middle
30s and a stiff nw wind of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Both the
winds and snow showers will rapidly diminish Sat night as the
trough pulls away and start of at least limited ridging commences.
Highs Sunday will head back to normal levels in the low to mid
40s.

Longwave trough will dig once again to the west and allow for
increasing heights and a series of systems to bring increased rain
chances, especially by mid week as the main trough ejects and heads
for the Great Lakes. Warmer temperatures will occur ahead of it with
highs in the 40s and 50s falling back to below normal levels in its
wake with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Low pressure over southwest Lower MI will continue to lift
northeast this evening with trailing cdfnt moving through KSBN at
issuance and KFWA toward 2-3z. Arrival of stronger deep layer
forcing/height falls should allow shower/storm coverage to congeal
in the vicinity of kFWA as this front moves through with brief
MVFR/IFR conditions expected. Lacking instability should mitigate
the severe threat at KFWA with any wind/hail concerns too isolated
for a mention in the TAF. Post-frontal stratocu generally in the
MVFR to low VFR range expected thereafter with scattered to
numerous snow showers anticipated at mainly KSBN later tonight
through early Saturday afternoon as wrap-around
moisture/deformation clips the lower Great lakes.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Steinwedel
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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