Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 031750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


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