287
FXUS63 KIWX 111022
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
622 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief showers ending early today

- Cool today, warmer and dry Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms this upcoming work
  week; best chances for rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A cold front was moving east across the area. There was up
virtually no instability or shear to work with, although upper
level jet support and some low level convergence was able to
sustain showers. Have removed thunder given the lack of support
for storms and no thunder observed. The showers should end
across northwest Ohio by 10 AM EDT followed by clearing. There
has been large social media interest with the solar storm and
subsequent Northern Lights visible across the area. The latest
forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center indices the
solar activity is expected to persist into Sunday. It looks like
skies will be favorable tonight to view any additional
activity.

A fairly large upper level trof like an impulse will drift east
and finally reach the forecast area about Tuesday. Overall
factors for severe storms are limited, although precipitable
water values will rise above 1.2 inches and hover in the 90th
percentile for this time of the year as the upper level system
arrives. Hydro concerns should be somewhat limited given the
advance state of vegetation and lack of a more favorable
backbuilding pattern. Locally heavy rainfall is still likely
along with rises on several rivers. The GFES ensembles favor
some rivers returning above minor flood stage, but overall flood
and hydro impacts appear limited.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A few remaining rain showers will continue to move eastward
this morning out of the area. Some cumulus around 5000 feet
will again develop with surface heating by late morning to early
afternoon but should see better clearing with ridging moving
into the region. Both TAF sites will have VFR conditions
through the remainder of the period. Breezy northwest winds
today with a few gusts up to around 20-25 kts possible.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen