Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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937
FXUS63 KIWX 241758
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our
area tonight and Sunday. Increased southwest winds ahead of the
front will re-enforce the hot humid conditions across the area
today with highs expected around 90 and maximum heat index
readings around 100. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along
and ahead of the cold front through Monday. Fair weather with a
little cooler temperatures and less humidity is expected behind
the front Tuesday and Wednesday as a high pressure system moves
east across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Clouds continue to linger over NE corner of the CWA this
afternoon in the wake of multiple convective complexes that moved
across Michigan earlier. Southwest CWA has remained relatively
cloud-free and has become increasingly unstable as surface based
CAPEs have reached over 4000J/kg. Surface analysis has low
pressure centered over western Ontario with cold front extending
down through the mid/upper MS valleys and trailing back to frontal
wave in the plains. Surface low will move eastward across Ontario
and bring cold front to our western CWA this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected as front moves through
as decent mass convergence along front will act on unstable warm
sector. Severe threat will be limited in a weakly sheared
environment as upper support remains detached to the north...but
remnant outflow boundary from earlier convection may serve as a
focus for stronger storms as front moves in. Cold front expected
to move through much of the CWA overnight...but may linger over
southern CWA into Monday morning as it takes on a slight E-W
orientation. Surface high pressure will then build into the region
providing a break from the heat and humidity mid week. Upper flow
becoming more zonal bringing temps back close to normal with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.



&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Zonal flow will have a series of weak disturbances moving across
the area and combine with stalled surface frontal boundary to
bring multiple chances for precip. Low confidence pattern as
models struggle to agree on timing/placement with these weaker
features. Best agreement among the medium range models is with
first short wave expected on Thursday. Beyond that model blend
yielding small chances into the weekend. Temps expected to remain
near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Convection sliding sewd along the wmfront over MI today has
established an outflow bndry across nrn IN this aftn which will
help serve as a focus for additional activity late aftn through
this evening. An approaching fntl bndry along with daytime heating
will help to initiate tstms to the wnw and move into the area
later today. Mentioned VCTS at KSBN between 12Z and 06Z and at
KFWA between 00Z and 12Z. MVFR cigs expected off and on thru the
fcst pd.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077>081.

OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Frazier


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