Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
349 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Tuesday with
high temperatures primarily in the upper 80s to around 90. A
noticeably cooler air mass will then build into the region for the
latter half of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Continued dominance of southern Great Lakes anticyclone to provide
yet another anomalously warm early fall day with afternoon high
temperatures projected to hold just a couple of degrees below daily
record highs. Otherwise poor vertical moisture profile amid
unremarkable mid level lapse rates to provide nil sensible weather
concerns today/tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

With time blocking ridge breaks down as Maria approaches midweek.
This also allows piecemeal ejections from upstream Rockies trough.
Primary energy to track well north of CWA, through Northern Plains,
far northern Upper Great Lakes to James Bay/ though passage of
attendant frontal zone to bring marked air mass exchange with DY5
temperatures about 20F cooler than of recent, which is near normal
for late September. Blended pops trending lower midweek though could
eke out a few showers/sprinkles along anafrontal boundary as it
exits southeast CWA Wed. Relatively poor moisture/well lagged mid
level height falls point towards acceptance of these latest blended
pop trends. Northern stream wave then tracks southeast through
Canada and to reinvigorate Great Lakes trof by Friday with EC
strongest in this regard. At least low chance pops Fri/early Fri
night followed by temps trending briefly below normal temps by DY7.
with ensemble guidance suggesting a few spots into upper 30s for
lows Sun morning within realm of possible outcomes, though will
acquiesce to the trend of the blend for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

VFR/dry with light ese winds under high pressure through the TAF




LONG TERM...Murphy

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