Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Expect increasing clouds and the chance for showers and even a few
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the forecast area
tonight into Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this
time. High temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday, only
reaching into the 60`s. Rain is expected again this weekend as
another system moves through the region. Thunderstorms are


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Entering a fairly active weather period with several high amplitude
waves ejecting out of the southwest CONUS and impacting our area.
First such wave already beginning to lift NE and will bring a chance
of rain later this evening and overnight. Chances for
widespread/moderate rain are on the low side, outside of our far
western CWA. Midlevel wave dampens and pivots more NNW overnight
while best upper level support remains just to our NW. Trailing cold
front does not arrive until diurnal minimum of instability and will
be intersecting increasingly hostile environment as it tracks east
with residual dry air and loss of parent forcing for ascent. Still,
most places will probably see some light showers with morning cold
frontal passage and latest hi-res guidance does show convection
presently entering southern Illinois will clip our western zones
this evening. A few strong storms with gusty winds may be possible
with the evening activity but instability is very limited by the
time this wave arrives and not expecting any severe threat.
Convection should gradually trend down as it lifts NNE late this

Anticipate dry conditions by Thursday afternoon. Non-diurnal temp
trend expected given morning cold front passage. Overnight temps
will likely hover in the 60s and then hold steady or slightly
decline during the day as CAA wing rotates through.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Of slightly more concern is potential for heavy rain over the
weekend. Strong Pacific jet (around 160 kts at 300mb) will carve out
a healthy PV anomaly over the southwest CONUS by early Saturday with
downstream ridge amplification in our our region. Rain chances begin
again Friday afternoon with initial surge of low level theta-e and
WAA but this initial rain will be light/SCT with lackluster moisture
advection and weak isentropic upglide. LLJ strengthens Friday night
as trough inches closer but most guidance sources keep focus of
moisture convergence/precip to our south, which makes sense given
the pattern aloft.

Main timeframe to watch will be later Saturday into Sunday and
Sunday night. Several waves of moderate/heavy precip expected during
this time as upper low approaches, sends warm front north, and then
eventually cold front arrives late Sunday. Deterministic QPF taken
at face value would suggest prodigious rain but smaller scale
convective elements often wreak havoc with final solution and latest
12Z GFS actually shows main axis of heaviest rain will set up to our
west and southwest. Periods of rain certainly expected, and may be
heavy at times, but given recent (relatively) dry conditions, spring
green-up, and low levels on area rivers, suspect it will take a lot
to cause any significant flooding. Moisture advection/PW values
don`t really ramp up in our CWA until late Sunday, ahead of quick-
hitting cold front, and orientation of front with respect to
mid/upper level pattern does not seem favorable for a long duration
of continuous heavy rain. Given very low confidence on flooding
potential, will hold off on any ESF issuance at this point.

Some, very low, threat for severe weather on Sunday but late arrival
of cold front and very marginal instability to begin with will
severely limit potential. Some light wraparound showers possible
through Monday but main story will be cooler temps. Mainly dry
conditions expected midweek, though will have to watch next trough
swinging through the southern CONUS. Latest runs keep bulk of this
precip to our south but something to watch given wet weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Clear skies will give way to some BKN/SCT Cu this afternoon as the
sun brings us a little bit of instability and a pre-frontal trough
approaches the region. Upstream observations/satellite imagery shows
the approaching area of Cu around 3-5KFT-expected to arrive at KSBN
within the hour. There is a little region of clearing behind this
initial batch of Cu before the clouds associated with the cold front
move into the area...spreading west to east overnight. The cold
front will cross the central forecast area by about 12Z Thu...and
exit the forecast area by 00z Fri. Low level wind shear is expected
at KFWA tonight with the approaching system before winds mix out
near the frontal passage. Don`t think we`ll see any precipitation
with the pre-frontal trough passing through at either KFWA/KSBN this
afternoon. The best chances for precipitation are with the cold
front at KSBN this evening/overnight, with thunderstorms not out of
the question. KFWA will see the best chances for any showers later,
likely after 9z if at all. Some of the guidance suggests that
precipitation won`t even make it to have left just VCSH in
for now. Think we`ll see some scattered showers but uncertain as to
how much we`ll see at the actual airport.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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