Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST
AIR STILL RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND
LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND
BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN
EXTRA FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM
GUIDANCE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF
THE 20S. RECORD DATA IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN
INTACT.

                                        SBN           FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)     25 IN 1955    26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH)           -9 IN 1934    10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS
IS MODELED TO CREST MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER
SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM. PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA
FOR A TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CONTD VFR MET CONDS FOR NRN IN TAF SITES WITH PRIMARY N/S LAKE
EFFECT BAND REMAINING WEST OF KSBN REGION. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND DETAIL WITH HIR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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