Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 192333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE SE AND DEEPEN THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA ON MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE LACKING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY SCT -SHRA
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT... STILL WARRANTING JUST A VCSH IN TAFS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO GRDLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A HIGH
CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO A LOW VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STRATO CU DECK ON
MONDAY. MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL VEER NW WITH FROPA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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