Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 251837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
237 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

An upper low pressure system continues to pivot away from the
region allowing showers to push away during the early overnight.
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are once again
possible Friday afternoon into Friday night as a low pressure
system approaches the region. Showers are still possible during
the holiday weekend, but for the most part we`ll stay dry. Highs
will stay around average for this time of year as we reach into
the 70s this holiday weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Scattered showers/drizzle in deformation axis on the backside of a
stacked low over central OH will continue into the late afternoon
hours mainly east of I-69. Any additional rainfall should be
light. Rain chances quickly diminish/end this evening into Friday
morning as low finally gets a kick east toward southern New
England. Expect significant height rises/drying aloft with
shortwave ridging in wake of this system, though low clouds and
possibly some fog will likely be slow to dissipate as moisture
lingers within subsidence inversion.

A transition to more zonal flow is expected into Friday and Saturday
as deep circulation opens toward the Canadian Maritimes and the next
longwave trough edges east into the Northern Plains/south-central
Canada. Several low amplitude/convectively enhanced shortwaves are
expected to move through this westerly flow, one more compact wave
late Friday/Friday night and a separate/more pronounced shortwave
around Saturday night/Sunday morning. A convective complex will
likely accompany each wave as it feeds on a developing baroclinic
zone/instability gradient across the Mid MS Valley-northern OH
Valley. Details on timing/track of these features at this range
remain rather sketchy as models normally struggle with
convection/Lower amplitude flow. For now will continue to carry
chance PoPs (highest Friday night and later Saturday night/Sunday
morning) with better severe/heavy rain chances with each wave being
just south of the forecast area, though close enough to closely
monitor going forward given saturated soils and the potential for a
more northerly track of MCV`s. Shortwave ridging with boundary
forced south in between waves should lead to a mainly dry/mild
Saturday and Sunday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Eastward release of the upper low/trough into the Great
Lakes/Ontario will set up cooler/cyclonic flow into next week.
Smaller scale perturbations rotating around the upper low, in
concert with some diurnal heating, may generate some mainly
afternoon/early evening showers under cold pocket aloft. No washouts
are expected but don`t be surprised if there are a few showers
(maybe a few storms) in the area each afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Upper low continues to pivot away from the area and allows a ridge
to move into the area for Friday. Precipitation is expected to
rotate around the upper low allowing for showers at FWA to
continue into the early overnight. Expecting some drying out of
the atmospheric column allowing for diurnal mix down up to 20kts
of wind gusts during the afternoon. Then, depending on how far
east the dryness can move in and with winds dying down after
midnight, expecting some reduction of VIS to move into the region
overnight. Conditions generally stay in MVFR with some time in VFR
this afternoon and IFR conditions possible Friday morning.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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