Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 232253
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...
 BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG TROF TO OUR WEST WAS
OVERSPREADING NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. MODELS SUGGEST A LOWERING
CLOUD TREND OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. LIGHT S-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SFC TROF DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT


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