Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 062347
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE UPPER LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY/QUIET CONDITIONS INTO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATING TEMPS THE STORY INTO TONIGHT-SUNDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG
A LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE. COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED
EXTREME HEIGHTS FALLS WILL SWEEP INTO OUR IN/MI COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERSPREAD OF DEEP UPWARD QG
FORCING WITH SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY HELP IGNITE THE
850-700 MB FGEN RESPONSE ALONG THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH SATURATION
PROBABLY DELAYED ENOUGH FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX NOT TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL
FRONT REACHES AREAS ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMS/IMPACTS TO BE LIMITED BY WARM NEAR SFC
LAYER. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN MIXES
WITH/CHANGES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE NARROW MID LVL DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS PNA RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
CONFIGURATION FOR THE EARLY-MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW.

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US
WILL AID IN CARVING OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER UNDER THIS COLD POCKET
ALOFT (AT LEAST MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING) WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES FOR HEADLINE WORTHY SNOW
AMOUNTS/IMPACTS WILL BE OVER OUR WNW/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS
AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. DEEPER SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE TO 15 KFT WILL ALSO EFFECTIVELY SEED LOWERING DGZ. BEST
RATES/HIGHER ACCUMS POSSIBLE HERE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS
AGGREGATE TROUGHING POTENTIALLY ENHANCED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A
SECONDARY TROUGH/SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX. LESSER SNOW ACCUMS/IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED INLAND BUT QUICK DUSTINGS/SQUALLY NATURE LIKELY TO
PROVIDE SOME SLICK/DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES MONDAY-TUESDAY. COLDEST
DAY LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH PURE MULTIBANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT RATES/COVERAGE TO LESSEN AS
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PULLS AWAYS AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT THEREAFTER
WITH TRANSITION TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW TO REACH THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA TOWARD DAYBREAK. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL MIXING AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KSBN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SOME CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KSBN TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


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