Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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079 FXUS63 KIWX 120528 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 128 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts diminish and decreasing clouds this evening. - Warmer; a beautiful Spring afternoon Sunday. - Wet weather returns later Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 It`s been a cool, breezy afternoon thanks to strong cold air advection in the wake of this morning`s cold front. Southern Michigan has been socked in with clouds most of the day as the upper- level low pivots through the state. However, this feature is now lifting northeast such that decreasing clouds are expected beyond sunset, especially as the lake breeze pushes inland these next few hours. Warm air advection ramps up on Mother`s Day (Hi, Mom!) as a trough digging into the Southern Plains buckles the upstream 500-mb pattern. High temperatures will soar well into the 70s under mostly sunny skies. High clouds are favored to stream in from the northwest late in the day as a low streaks through Quebec, with any associated late-day rain showers confined to central and northern Michigan. Overnight and into Monday morning, a weak secondary low is forecast to develop across southern Michigan. Newly available high resolution guidance suggests most of this activity will be confined north of the Michigan border; POPs have been adjusted accordingly. Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive later Monday afternoon through Monday night as the aformentioned Southern Plains trough lifts over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The associated surface low and warm front will be a focus for the greatest rainfall totals Monday night through Tuesday. the Weather Prediction Center has increased their rainfall forecast (a trend in the right direction), forecasting totals near 1" Monday through Wednesday, when the trough finally clears the forecast area. Drying out Wednesday and most of Thursday (in-house blend counties to be too broad and fast with POPs on Thursday) before our next trough moves through, threatening another dose of wet weather Friday and into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Westerly wind gusts after 15z Sun up to 20 kts possible through 00z Mon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Andersen