Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1256 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 1248 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Warm, moist air will continue to spread over the area through the
weekend. Expect highs around 40 degrees today, and into the mid-
upper 40s on Sunday and Monday. Areas south of US 30 will see
highs in the low 50s Monday. Today will be dry, but expect fog and
drizzle overnight. Rain is possible Sunday, but the best chances
will be Sunday night into Monday. Areas of fog will continue into
Sunday evening. Minor flooding is possible from rain and
snowmelt by early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Mild but dry air will continue to spread north across the area
tonight with temperatures only falling into the upper 20s.
Moisture will begin to increase Saturday ahead of the next system
with patchy fog developing by late in the day. Highs should top
40, expect over areas of snow cover. There is a chance for light
rain or possibly light drizzle by late in the day.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Areas of fog will continue to develop Saturday night and persist
into Sunday as moisture continues to spread north. Rain will
develop Sunday night and continue Monday with rainfall amounts
around an inch possible over northwest areas. Concern for rises
on rivers given snow melt, rain, and frozen ground. Upper level
jet dynamics should translate over this area early next week.
Otherwise, not much arctic air behind this system, so temperatures
should stay a little above normal behind the cold front. The best
chance for any winter travel issues appears to be Tuesday morning
as temperatures fall below freezing over most areas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1248 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

For the rest of tonight and into early Saturday morning, expect VFR
conditions with mainly LLWS expected as a low level jet ramps up
over the region. Otherwise, expect deterioration in conditions
through the remainder of the TAF period at both sites, with low
level moisture and warm air advecting into the region. Additionally,
melting snow will add greater potential for MVFR/IFR conditions.
That being said, still considerable disagreement among guidance as
to the timing of lowering ceilings/visibility, but based on
observational trends opted to push back the MVFR/IFR conditions to
later this afternoon. I`m feeling confident in the IFR ceilings/vis
occurring, but have lowered confidence in the exact timing. For now,
have both sites dropping to MVFR around 22Z, then to IFR after 00z,
with KFWA dropping first.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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