Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251952
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEATHER ESSENTIALLY NIL IN THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR ANOTHER NICE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SIDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A
NICE RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH...
AND MAY SLOW DOWN THE EAST EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WAS PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN INTERIOR WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED AFTER THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL
TROF LATE THIS COMING WEEK...WITH THE EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR
UNDULATING OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEW/12Z GFS/MEX WAS THE
COLDEST YET OF ANY OF THE ECMWF OR GFS RUNS WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-12C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO AN EARLIER COLD
SOLUTION. HESITATED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF WHAT
APPEARS SHOULD BE A SINGLE SNOW BAND. DELTA T VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 20C LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BETWEEN 20C AND 23C THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS LOWER FRIDAY BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A VERY CHILLY NEXT
SATURDAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO ERODE AND SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEAR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DRIER AIR AND SLIGHT GRADIENT WIND WILL
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT AT TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE IF FULL DECOUPLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE KFWA AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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