Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 170601

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
101 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

A mild work week is ahead with little if any rain or snow through
Thursday. Highs will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s,
although a few 50s are possible at times. Lows should range from
25 to 35. Much colder weather is ahead early next week for


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Little of consequence this period. As surmised yesterday... shearing
srn stream sw into the Ohio valley Sun aftn looks to fall apart per
continued consensus intramodel trends cutback on temporal
distribution of pops for Sun aftn although do expect decaying precip
band to overlap srn zones.

Otherwise generally moist and likely drizzly within otherwise
favorable low level moisture flux Mon and stayed the course with
minimal pop mention.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Fairly flat flow aloft across the Conus into mid week before the
pattern aloft across NOAM buckles significantly. Ewd expansion of
low level thermal trough marks Tue as the warmest day this week and
given the likely meltoff of existing snow cover a run toward 50
likely south of highway 30.

Otherwise little of sensible weather note til Fri timed with ewd
peel of amplifying nrn stream sw trough and emergence of next arctic
intrusion into the nrn/nern US. While placement of low level
baroclinic zone somewhat in flux... consensus indicated
incorporation of wrn Gomex moisture return bears watching timed with
leading edge of cold advection wing crossing the Great Lakes.
Blended pop solutions at this range generally accepted yet hedged
temps lower Fri-Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Weak flow was over the area with winds from the east over northern
areas including SBN with southerly winds farther south. A marine
layer was drifting west into northwest Ohio and was accompanied by
developing fog. Concern that this layer will bring some MVFR fog
toward daybreak - possibly even IFR fog. For now, have kept a
mention of MVFR fog from 09-13Z; otherwise, conditions will be VFR
until this evening with low MVFR or IRF ceilings move in from the





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