Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210730
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZES. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY GIVE RISE TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

PV ANOMALY ASSOCD/W INTENSE SW OVR NRN WI WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SEWD
INTO NRN IN BY MIDDAY AS LG SCALE MID LVL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
SEWD. SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W THIS SYS EXTENDS FM WRN LK MI SWWD INTO
CNTRL IN AND WILL CLEAR ERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. SRN FLANK OF CONVN
ALG THIS FTR WILL CARRY EWD THROUGH SRN MI OTRWS SCT SHRA/TSRA
CONT TO FESTER WITHIN DOWNSTREAM WAA OVERTOP LEFT OVER OUTFLW
BUBBLE FM CONVN LAST EVENING YET ON THE WAY OUT OVR FAR SERN ZONES.
AGAIN THOUGH XPC ALL OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE AND
WILL THEN AWAIT ARRIVAL OF MID LVL TROUGH ACRS THE NW CWA TWD THE
NOON HOUR FOLLOWED BY RAPID SEWD PIVOT THROUGH MID AFTN.

POST FNTL AIRMASS GETS GUTTED AS STG CAA WING DRIVES SEWD THROUGH
THIS MORNING. PALTRY LEFT OVR RESIDUAL LL THETA-E IN COMBINATION
W/INNOCUOUS VERTICAL ASCENT WARRANT TEMPERING POPS AS REFLECTED
BOTH IN MOS TRENDS AND SEEN IN NEARLY ALL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER VS YDA/S UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS
W/HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE BLDS EAST OVERNIGHT W/CLRG
AND WILL FOLLOW COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PARKING TO THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SEEN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS. MORNING LOWS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONLY
INTO THE 60S AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ON...SLOW MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND NO SIGNS OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THORNY NR TERM W/CURRENT VARIABLE CIGS IN PLACE AND TAIL END OF
NEARING LINE OF STG STORMS ALG SHARP SFC CDFNT OVR CHICAGO.
WANING WAA WING AHD OF THIS FTR STILL FESTERING OVR ERN AREAS BUT
MOST SIG IMMEDIATE SHRA THREAT LOOKS TO PASS NR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KFWA. OTRWS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPSTREAM CONV LINE TO KSBN AND
RAPID SEWD MOVEMENT WILL ROLL W/A BRIEF TEMPO MENTION TO ELUCIDATE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY SURVIVE EVEN TO KFWA BUT OPTED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY GIVEN WANING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY POOL.

OTRWS STG UPSTREAM CAA WING WILL RAPIDLY DRIVE SEWD THROUGH DAYBREAK
W/STG MIXING DVLPG BY MID MORNING AND CONTG THROUGH AFTN. NWRLY SFC
GUSTS AOA 25KTS XPCD AT BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


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