Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261741
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
141 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Skies will become mostly sunny by late afternoon across the area
with highs reaching the middle to upper 60s. A seasonably cool
night will be in store with lows dropping into the middle 40s. Dry
and cool conditions will persist into Tuesday before an upper
low brings a cloudy and rainy period to the region starting
Tuesday night and persisting possibly into the weekend. The
coldest day will occur Wednesday when highs will struggle to
climb into the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Shortwave trough taking on a negative tilt into the northwest Great
Lakes will invoke a frontogenetical response along the mid level
portion of cold front/moisture axis working east through the
region this morning. The result should be a blossoming, yet
narrow, area of rain which should exit our IN/MI zones by mid
morning and nw OH midday. Weak instability may support some
embedded thunder, best chances along/east of I-69 near sfc portion
of front.

Pronounced dry slot and post-frontal cold advection will provide a
trend toward mostly sunny skies and gusty winds (20-25 knots)
from west to east later this morning/afternoon, with sfc ambient
temps holding in the 60s. Dry westerly flow is then expected to
persist into tonight and Tuesday as main PV filament and mid-
upper level jetlet lifting through the Great Lakes deepens low
pressure just north of Lake Superior, which then becomes
vertically stacked by Tuesday. Winds will relax tonight but once
again become somewhat gusty during the day Tuesday given ample
sunshine and tight low level height gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Clouds and shower chances return later Tuesday night into Wednesday
as deep tropospheric circulation drops in. Last several model cycles
have trended more aggressive with deep/smaller scale PV anomaly and
added lake response (stronger low level troughing) into the lower
Lakes later Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Have increased
PoPs/QPF as a result, especially closer to Lake MI. Clouds/pcpn
should limit the diurnal temp response with highs Wednesday only
reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The GFS/GEM have unfortunately come more inline with the ECMWF in
cutting off the upper low either overhead or just east of the area
Thursday through at least Saturday. Have increased Sky cover,
lowered the diurnal temp ranges a few degrees, and added a low
PoP each day to account for these trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Gusty winds in the 20 to 25 kt range can be expected the
remainder of the afternoon at both sites with VFR ceilings. While
the gusty character of the winds will depart this evening, it will
return by mid to late Tuesday morning. Clouds will be on the
increase from the north, with main impacts waiting until outside
this forecast period (towards 00Z Weds at KSBN and around 3z Weds at
KFWA).

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher


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