Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 300451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Issued at 749 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

There is just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms the
remainder of the night... mainly across southern lower Michigan. A
couple of upper level disturbances will track across the region
through the first part of the weekend, bringing more scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region for Saturday afternoon and
evening. Mainly dry conditions are expected on Sunday. Low
temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 60s. High temperatures
on Saturday will be around 80 degrees.


Issued at 749 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Broad perturbed mid/upper flow combined with diurnal instability
has once again allowed for scattered-numerous showers and storms
across the area this afternoon/early evening. Earlier this
afternoon main focus was along lake enhanced convergence zone
across the far northwest, with recent trends taking primary focus
into portions of far northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio where low
level moisture convergence appears to be maximized early this
evening. Have continued trend of previous forecast with gradual
PoP rampdown late evening/overnight, although broad upper level
short wave working in from the Mid Ms Valley and persistent weak
elevated instability will keep slight chance-low chance PoPs going
overnight. A few locations experienced some flooding issues this
afternoon, with still a low end possibility of some localized
pockets of heavier rain across the eastern third of the area
through late evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Chaotic pattn sfc and aloft this aftn. Old synoptic fntl zone had
mixed into swrn zones w/composite outflw/wk cdfntl zone through
srn MI. Meanwhile aloft...w-e vort channel and wk mid lvl
frontogenesis overhead conts to persist ewd of fractured sw
disturbances extending fm se NE into wrn IL. Given stg
heating/destabilization ongoing xpc dvlpg convn ovr w/sw areas in
proximity to old synoptic bndry will expand ewd inadv of apchg
wave coming out of wrn IL and build ewd acrs nrn IN lt this aftn
and into OH by evening.

Otrws activity contg within composite bndry ovr srn MI into nw OH
likely to persist until lead sw disturbance pivots through this
evening. In all most areas esp nwd of the highway 24 corridor shld
see a more generous coverage of shra/tsra this aftn evening as
this sys works through the area. Contd wk flw aloft within an
appreciably moist airmass again points to localized heavy rainfall
yet without a more coherent focus aloft nor sig ll mass flux no
water related headlines needed.

Ltl chg xpcd on Sat as pattn aloft persists w/primary mid lvl trough
axis finally making a push east lt Sat night. Will expand prior pops
while emphasizing nrn half for btr implied chc both Sat aftn and eve
tied to diurnal heating cycle and persisting mid lvl convergence.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Ridging aloft to build sigly and spread ewd into the wrn Lakes
this pd as east Canada troughing breaks down although that appears
likely to redvlp twd dy8. Regardless lg scale pattn suggestive of
conv complexes dvlpg within nrn periphery of growing
heat/instability dome acrs the plains as erly as lt Tue yet deemed
moreso twd Wed and then persisting through Fri pending degree of
ridging that blds newd into the Grtlks. Regardless at this range
will truncate fallacious blended pops to lwr bound chcs given lack
of model based temporal consensus on both upr ridge placement and


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Shra have lifted ne into lwr Mi. HRRR suggests this trend will cont
overnight as a vort max moves ne to Lake Erie/swrn Ontario. This
should leave terminals precip-free overnight. Low levels quite
moist, enhanced by rainfall at both terminals yday aftn with fairly
widespread shower coverage, especially over ne IN.
Diurnal/radiational cooling prbly strengthening overnight as more
breaks in mid/high clouds develop should allow fog/stratus to form
with mvfr/ifr conditions. Contd with lowest conditions at FWA due to
more widespread rainfall in this area yday. Stratus should gradually
lift to a cu deck late morning. Wk sfc low over central Indiana with
an inverted trof to the nw modeled to lift slowly ne and focus sct
tsra as airmass destabilizes this aftn/eve. With wk flow, cells will
be slow movers, and coverage questionable, so just fcst vcts in tafs


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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