Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 252001
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
401 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible early this
evening particularly around Ohio. However this activity will move
east of the area overnight. Dry weather is then expected Friday,
with the next chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving early
Saturday. Highs will stay in the 80s through Saturday with lows in
the 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Water vapor imagery indicates weak upper PV anomaly over southern
Lower MI and northern IN has moved east to northwest OH and
southeast Lower MI, with a corresponding weakening of convection
in its wake. MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg extends into western OH but
satellite indicates deeper convection over MI beneath the best
upper forcing. Some convection allowing models suggest that rain
showers associated with convection over IA/IL may sneak into the
area this evening, but that would most likely be before 10 PM and
short lived. High confidence for dry condition Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Some indications of showers and thunderstorms are expected the
middle of next week. However predictability and certainty with
timing both remain low given that this is associated with a low
amplitude wave in largely zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Radar and satellite indicate a northeast to southwest line
through KSBN that may develop showers with some thunderstorms
possible. This leaves a narrow time window for showers and a low
probability for thunder at KSBN that will probably end well
before the advertised 19Z time. MVFR cigs should gradually rise
and remain above fuel alternate thresholds.

Better chances for thunder at KFWA primarily before 20Z as the
line moves southeast. It is also possible that this line will
contain only showers...thus the VCTS mention.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT


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