Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
339 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 109 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Cool air aloft helping to keep temperatures around the region cool
by June standards into Tuesday. Temps will be trending warmer
into the latter portion of the work week while humidity creeps up
starting early Thursday as high pressure slides southeast of the
region. A shower and possibly a thunderstorm are not out of the
question across the area before sunset today, but a better chance
for showers/storms comes mid to late week this week as low
pressure passes by to the north.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Isolated showers early this afternoon should expand in coverage
with daytime heating along a weak upper level trof in the area of
very cold temperatures aloft. Isolated thunder is also possible as
conditions continue to destabilize later today. More showers are
possible farther south, basically south of a line from Winamac to
Ft Wayne, associated with the left exit region of an upper level
speed max that should help enhance showers and isolated storms.
There is not much moisture available, so the activity will
decrease rapidly after sunset. Conditions should be dry tonight
through Wednesday as an area of high pressure moves over the
region. Temperatures should drop to near 50 tonight and in the 50s
Tuesday night as the airmass modifies.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The pattern will become active as the main upper level trof moves
northeast and the flow becomes more zonal. This will set the
stage for a couple of rounds of showers and storms during the
latter half the week. Favored the GFS with the most active time
from Wednesday evening into Friday night. Given the high values of
precipitable water approaching 2 inches, heavy rain is possible
during this period as impulses move through the large scale
pattern. Lingering storms are possible early Saturday; however,
dry conditions should return Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A vigorous shortwave is moving southeast from the Northern Plains
and will be able to set off showers and possibly a storm this
afternoon with some LL theta-e advection during the afternoon. The
environment doesn`t appear conducive for stronger storms across
most of the forecast area with plenty of dry air around the region
and low instability, but shear may help to sustain a storm or two
with the help of 6-7 C/km ML lapse rates. Coverage of storms
appears limited this afternoon, but feel a shower could be around
the region so have at least included a VCSH for now at the
terminals. Will also include wind gusts between 20 and 25 kts
helped along by diurnal mixing this afternoon, but they`ll drop
off around 00z. Finally, VFR conditions will prevail through the


IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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