Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 280533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Warm and humid southerly flow will persist into this weekend.
Highs will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with lows in the
60s. There will remain low chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday, best chances during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Drier air will filter in on Memorial Day with high
temperatures once again reaching the low to mid 80s. Another upper
level system will then approach the region by the middle of next
week with renewed shower and thunderstorm chances.


Issued at 604 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Ern influence of small scale MCV lifting up through ne IL sprtg a
bkn arc of convn fm ne IL into far wrn IN this aftn. Hwvr per
h8-75 flw vectors and obsvrd cell movement...appears this activity
will just skim far wrn zones at best esp w/rapid ewd decay of
instability gradient noted in 20Z mesoanalysis. Secondary upstream
MCV noted in water vapor ovr se MO to take an even further wrn
track given largely meridonal flw aloft. As such will truncate
pops...esp ern extent going fwd overnight. Remainder of the fcst
on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Warm/high theta-e airmass will remain in place tonight into the
upcoming weekend within deep south-southwest flow between broad
western US/Plains upper troughing and an expanding eastern NOAM

A closed upper low and associated sfc reflection over far western
Kansas will open northeast into eastern NE/IA Saturday and into the
western/central Great Lakes on Sunday. Overall large scale forcing
will remain focused well west-northwest of the local area through at
least Sunday morning, but hard to completely rule out low chances
for showers/storms in any period given potential for MCV remnants
and smaller scale perturbations to lift through in downstream LLJ
core. The best opportunity for isolated/scattered convection will be
during the diurnal instability max each afternoon and early evening,
with this afternoon`s best potential across far northwest
IN/southwest MI on eastern flank of MCV remnant lifting north
toward Lake MI.

Better flow/forcing does finally arrive Sunday afternoon as height
falls through the Great Lakes forces a cold front through. There
could be just enough deep layer shear and diurnal heating to support
more organized convection and a low/marginal severe risk during this
time. With this said, the bulk of the weekend will feature dry
conditions and above normal temps/humidity.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

A brief period of drying/subsidence is expected post-frontal into
early next week resulting in a lower humidity/PoP free Memorial Day.
The next slow moving upper trough/frontal system will then bring
renewed chances for showers/storms by the middle of the week.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain above normal through
the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will pick up
somewhat late Sat morning into the afternoon hours. Hi res models
continue to flip flop on convection chances through the period.
Best chance would still appear to be during peak heating this
afternoon. With no clear signals on exactly when or where...will
keep with no mention of showers/storms.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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