295
FXUS63 KIWX 072323
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
723 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 10 pm EDT this
  evening for southern Lake Michigan beaches.

- Dry and less humid into Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s.

- Daily, mainly diurnally driven, shower/storm chances Wednesday
  through this weekend amid humid and warm conditions, best
  chances (60%) during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Widely scattered showers remain possible through the late afternoon
hours near a weak front and lingering moisture axis for locations
mainly along and southeast of US 24. Dry and less humid otherwise
into tonight and Tuesday as the entire forecast area briefly
receives influence from a low level ridge folding east through the
central and eastern Great Lakes.

A low amplitude shortwave, embedded in weak zonal flow, looks to
track east through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
renewed surge of low level theta-e. Forcing/flow is once again on
the weak side with better shower/storm chances (30-50%) relegated
to the afternoon hours near any outflow/lake breeze boundaries.
Similar conditions on Thursday, though this time with diminished
moisture quality and no obvious impulses aloft...thus lower PoPs
(20-30%) for a diurnally driven shower/storm near any outflow
boundary or in regions of greater differential heating. Near to
slightly above normal temps and humidity levels for July otherwise
with the bulk of the period(s) dry.

Ensemble guidance has remained consistent in a Gulf of Alaska
upper-level trough diving southeast toward the north-central
US. This feature will also help kick an upper low off the
California coast east toward the western Great Lakes by later
Friday into Saturday. These features could come together to
provide episodic convective events across the Midwest later Friday
into Saturday, with Saturday appearing to the best opportunity
for thunderstorms locally.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Drier air overtakes moisture in the area this evening, but residual
low level moisture may be enough to create some fog/br tonight into
early Tuesday as the low level inversion forms and winds go
light/calm. This will allow for LIFR flight conditions as a
result of VISBY at FWA, but more like MVFR BR where the drier
air has already begun to erode low level moisture. Humidity
increases later Tuesday/Tuesday night and chance for showers and
storms also increase that looks to take place after this TAF
period, more so after midnight Tuesday night. Winds out of the
north northwest become more southwesterly for Tuesday, but
should stay less than 10 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller