Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291059
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY THIS EVENING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/N OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. TRENDS TO THE WEST WOULD SUGGEST
THAT RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON SE/E SECTIONS THAT HAVE SEEN TOO MUCH RAIN ALREADY. A
FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS PRINT OUT THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN (6Z RAP WENT TO EXTREME OF SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM GRANT COUNTY NE TO FT WAYNE). GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SETTING UP IN EASTERN AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...PWATS NOT AS HIGH AS PAST SYSTEMS AND WHILE BRIEFLY
SLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED HOISTING A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS SERVES NO PURPOSE. IN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO HOIST THE WATCH...BUT EQUAL
ARGUMENT (AND MAYBE BETTER APPROACH) COULD BE TO EXPAND/ISSUE
AREAL FLOOD WARNING VS A FLOOD WATCH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING MAY BE IN SW AREAS THAT COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.

PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD PUSH OUT
RATHER QUICKLY AS SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS IN LATE EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
KEPT SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO NE IL BY
12Z TUE THEN SWING EAST THROUGH BASE OF TROF ACROSS NRN INDIANA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND WK-MOD
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TUE...SO SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS OUR CWA TUE NGT-WED NGT AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VALLEY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONT IN THE CWA WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVG SFC BOUNDARY.

CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE IN WRN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROF FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST INTO WRN CANADA WKNG RIDGE IN THAT AREA.
STILL... A WK BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN E-W ORIENTED STNRY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY
CONTG JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME WK SHRTWVS WILL
TOP WRN RIDGE AND MOVE SE TOWARD BASE OF THE BROAD TROF OVER OUR
AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
A CONTINUATION OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE MOVG EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS CAUSING AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH LOW CIGS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY AT FWA MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST BUT LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE SOME STRATUS/FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH IFR CONDITIONS PSBL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


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