Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 180546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1246 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 1245 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Cloudy skies and perhaps some lingering light drizzle will be
possible through the early morning hours. The clouds will linger
into early afternoon then some partial clearing is expected. It
will remain dry and mild with highs today in the lower 40s and 45
to 50 on Thursday. Rain chances return Thursday night into Friday,
though it will remain quite warm through the weekend with highs
mainly in the 50s and lows in the lower 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A low pressure area was over Lower Michigan and was moving
northeast. Cold air advection was south of the low over the
forecast area. Light showers and patchy drizzle and areas of fog
may persist well into the night as the weak flow continues with
sufficient moisture upstream. Temperatures should stay above
freezing, so travel impacts should be limited to the patchy fog.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Two upper level systems will lift northeast over the area during
this period. The initial system should bring a round of light rain
Thursday night into Friday. A second, but much stronger system will
follow a similar path of the first. More rain is likely with this
second system. Other than lows dipping a little below freezing
Thursday night, temperatures should stay above freezing through next
Tuesday and will even approach record highs on Saturday and Sunday.
Have raised temperatures across the board during this entire period
based the the latest model blends and trends. Rises on rivers are
likely with flooding possible especially early next week given
saturated and partly frozen ground conditions with excess runoff.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1243 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Visibilities to continue improvement as upper level shortwave
energy continues to move east into the Lower Great Lakes this
morning. Still IFR ceilings will likely persist in cyclonic low
level flow with low level cold pool enhancing inversion through
the morning hours with even a brief dip to LIFR 003-004 possible
in 09-14 utc timeframe at both sites, though have remained a bit
more positive as chances of sustained LIFR appear marginal given
slightly drier low level air upstream. Gradual improvement from
IFR to MVFR ceilings by early afternoon with eventual scouring out
by late day/evening expected as subsidence wins over.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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