Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 101 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

drier air will gradually spread south and east today and tonight.
lingering clouds across Central Ohio will persist along and south
of US 24. under cloud cover the temperatures will remain in the
middle 60s this afternoon. under the clear skies...temperatures
will rise to the lower 70s...except near Lake Michigan where the
lake breezes will contribute to cooler air spreading inland this
afternoon. clear and dry conditions will continue tonight through
Monday. overnight lows will drop to the upper 40s and lower 50s.
highs Sunday and Monday will be in the middle and upper 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 444 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Primary focus to end pops sig earlier...with far eastern/sern cwa
drying out by early/mid afternoon. This is in line as eastward
progress of vortex /currently over srn Lake Michigan/ reaches
eastern Lake Erie/western Lake Ontario by evening while continuing
to fill. Additional signs of diminishing dynamics is strengthening
of 3 hr pressure falls along VA/NC border to 3.5mb/3 hr signifying
coastal handoff already underway. orphaned mid deck may linger
into afternoon...though gradually thin/melt amid poor mid lvl
lapse rates and increasing deep layer subsidence.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

High plains mid level ridging to overspread eastward into upper
great lakes in wake of friday night systems passage into new england
that drives significant coastal cyclogenesis. very dry /pwat on
order of 0.40 inches/ subsident airmass for moderating temperatures
to above normal/near 80 by tuesday. again as yday have held line
with respect to onset of higher pops/shra/tsra chances as initial
wave ejection from deep/expansive wrn conus cyclone likely
deflects nw-n of cwa and initial gomex feed lacking/shunted well
westward. Gradual ramp to mid level chance pops starting tue
aftn...though best chances in wed/wed night timeframe as cwa
becomes poised for additional upstream shortwave ejections in deep
swrly flow as large scale trof opens/broadens and transitions from
highly pos tilt to neg tilt axis /bc into corn belt/ by dy7.
Models hint at shallow frontal passage late thu that could provide
convective focus to linger into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

band of cloud cover extending from klaf-kfwa-kdtw in association
with residual moisture and convective instability. this will
persist through the early evening before subsidence spreads south
and east...and insolation decreases. vfr conditions prevail
through period with no significant impacts expected for aviation.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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