Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 122054
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
454 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING COOLER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

LOW PRES DVLPG ACRS WRN KS THIS AFTN WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT NEWD
INTO ERN IA SUN AFTN. SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FM CNTRL LWR MI SWWD
THROUGH ERN IA WILL MOVE LTL AND XPC BULK OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO
DVLP IN PROXIMITY TO FNTL ZONE TONIGHT. POSITION OF LL THETA-E RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH WARRANTS GOING W/A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. OTRWS MOD
GRADIENT FLW TO CONT W/MILD NIGHT XPCD.

ON SUN WARM SECTOR WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS SW IMPULSE OUT WEST
AMPLIFIES FURTHER THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS A
BIT FURTHER DURING THE AFTN AS SFC CYCLONE MIGRATES INTO ERN IA. XPC
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AS CONVN IF FOCUSED INVOF
OF SFC FNTL ZONE. ALTHOUGH LOW CHC MENTION STILL WARRANTED FAR NW
SUN AFTN TIED TO LLJ DVLPMNT AND BTR THETA-E RIDGING/MSTR FLUX LATE.
WARM START AND BINOVC AGAIN FVRS WARMEST MOS TEMPS W/AN 80 DEGREE
READING PSBL OVR NW OH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

SOME OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS...SRF AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
WILL BECOME IMPRESSIVE AROUND 65 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY
UNIFORM DIRECTION WITH TALL BUT THIN CAPE SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THE 12 KM NAM STILL SUPPORTS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW
NORTHWEST AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY CHILLY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SOME
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. WENT WITH THE LOWER END ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLES TEMPS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PD. TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT
BTWN RIDGE NOW CNTRD ALG THE EAST COAST AND DVLPG LOW OVR WRN KS
WILL YIELD GUSTY S/SW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTN AND AGAIN LT TONIGHT/SUN
AS SFC LOW LIFTS INTO IA. DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT SLOWED BY PRIOR PATCH
OF ACCAS THAT HAS MOSTLY MIXED OUT. HWVR MOST LOCATIONS NEARING CONV
TEMPS AND XPC MORE VIGOROUS CU DVLPMNT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTN.

OTRWS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY XPCD TO REMAIN NW OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PD INVOF OF SFC FNTL ZONE/LL THETA-E RIDGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


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