Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 170835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
435 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Today will be very warm for mid October and also quite windy. It
will be a mild start to the day with temperatures in the 60s
around daybreak...followed by highs in the lower to middle 80s in
the afternoon. It will remain dry through Tuesday morning but
there is a slight chance for showers Tuesday afternoon. Lows
tonight will be mild once again and remain in the 60s. Highs on
Tuesday will range from the middle 70s across lower Michigan and
far Northern Indiana to the lower 80s over north central Indiana
and northwest Ohio.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Patchy fog last night has mixed out and dissipated over all but the
northeast corner of the forecast area where at Hillsdale the
visibility was 1/2 mile at 315 AM. A low level jet will translate
east and cause low level wind speeds to increase to around 70 knots
in the 900/850 mb layer. These strong low level winds will mix
out the remaining fog early this morning. There is an outside chance
for a shower today as moisture flux remains impressive; however, the
best forcing with stay north and northeast of the area. Kept the
forecast dry for today. Expect gusty winds today with wind gusts
topping 30 mph. Highs will probably settle just a few degrees shy
of the records of 86 and 85 at South Bend and Ft Wayne
respectively. Lows tonight in the warm sector will be unseasonably
mild for this time of year in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 432 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Unseasonably mild weather will start the day Tuesday with early
morning temperatures well above the normal lows for this time of
year. A cold front will be moving southeast and should move across
the area during the day as an upper level trof moves. Added a small
chance for showers over the southeast half of the area where limited
daytime instability may support some showers.  A second upper level
trof will approach the area and cause the front to begin to move
back north as a wave develops along the front Wednesday. The GFS has
trended north and now supports the northern track of the ECMWF.
Expanded the area where rain is likely to include areas from Ft
Wayne early Thursday. Otherwise, conditions should be mainly dry
Friday through Sunday with temperatures cooling closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Conditions have already improved to VFR at terminals with only
MVFR and isolated IFR closer to the IN/OH/MI tri-state corner.
KIWX 88D VWP shows 40 knots in the lowest gate at 2kft from the
southwest. Warm front has basically mixed northward but sfc winds
lagging with a southeast component. Cannot rule out an isolated
shra through daybreak but doubtful per hires guidance and latest
satellite/radar trends. The strong low level winds are creating
LLWS and have added to terminals through mid morning when mixing
improves. This will also help transport stronger winds and gusts
to sfc. Gusts to 30 knots possible and may need to bump wind
speeds with 12z issuance. Otherwise VFR. Could see LLWS conditions
again this evening but sfc winds looks to remain strong with mixed
low levels so did not include at this time.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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