Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 180452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1153 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 623 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

A low pressure system brings showers that will continue into
Saturday along with a thunderstorm. Winds will be gusty
especially later Saturday. Behind the low, cooler air arrives so
rain may mix with or turn to light snow for a period before
shutting off Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, drier air arrives
keeping just a mix of sun and clouds for the early work week.
Tonight`s lows will drop into the low to mid 40s before rebounding
towards the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday. Sunday`s highs will
only reach the mid to upper 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Quiet weather ends this evening as the next in what appears to be
a series of systems sweeps into the Great Lakes Region. Rain will
overspread from west to east overnight and continue through
Saturday night. Temperatures to move little overnight and expect
that there will be steady to even a slight rise in temperatures
overnight into Saturday AM.

Heavy rainfall is possible with this event, however the rainfall
amounts will be spread over a long enough period that most rivers
will be able to handle the increase in water. Ponding and lowland
flooding is not out of the question.

With the increased flow and instability, expect to have isolated
thunderstorm development but no severe weather expected. As the
gradient tightens late Saturday expect to see increasing winds and
will need to watch closely for possible wind advisory.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Thus begins the roller coaster ride of weather. Cold air settles
in the wake of the low Sunday. A brief period of light snow
showers expected...especially downwind of Lake MI. Cold and
blustery through the day Sunday. Brief period of quiet weather
Monday/Tuesday before another shot of cooler air sweeps into the
region for Wednesday. In the wake of that system,
Thursday/Thanksgiving Day looks to be a relatively mild and quiet
into Friday. Longer range remains unsettled with fast moving
systems ejecting across the northern Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Low pressure near Wichita KS will deepen rapidly near term as it
rockets newd into wrn lake erie by this evening. KFWA terminal falls
on warm side of this system with primary IFR conditions taking hold
after 10Z. KSBN on the other hand primarily LIFR for much of the day.

Lead arc of rain along nose of low level theta-e surge on the way
out through wrn OH. However jet coupling aloft in advance of sfc
cyclone approach will drive intense frontal scale circulations both
along the warm front later this morning and again by late
morning/early aftn along the cold front. Will add a tempo tsra
grouping at KFWA given proximity to triple point junction otherwise
KSBN looks to be too deep within cold conveyor for a thunder risk.
Otherwise periods of moderate to heavy rain with inherent variable
vsby/cig reduction likely.

Otherwise window of intense nwrly sfc gusts to 30 knots expected
this aftn within strong low level cold advection burst.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LMZ043-




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