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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291949
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MI 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


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