Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 300731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
331 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A weak upper level trough will move east into the area today
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of i69.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms again late tonight
and Wednesday as a cold front moves southeast across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs today will be in the mid 80s, with
lows tonight in the upper 60s. A strong high pressure system will
move southeast from Canada behind Wednesday`s cold front,
resulting in fair weather with much cooler temperatures and lower
humidity late this week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Very moist airmass remains in place over wrn 1/2 of the cwa while a
little drier air via sfc high movg south into ny has infiltrated the
east. Flow will become westerly today in advance of cdfnt
dropping se across the upr grtlks, advecting the higher moisture
back into the east. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass should
allow for moderate instability to develop over our cwa by this
aftn, which along with wk shrtwvs drifting east over top of
retrograding lwr oh valley upr ridge should trigger sct convection
across at least the wrn portion of the cwa. Given light wind
fields and warm/moist airmass in place, any storms that do develop
will be slow moving psbly resulting in locally heavy rainfall.
Shower/tstm chances diminish with loss of heating/instability this
evening, then increase late tonight and early wed as cdfnt moves
across the area.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the area behind
wednesday`s cdfnt as strong sfc high associated with dvlpg
amplified upr air pattern moves into the grtlks. Temps will grdly
warm back above normal over the labor day weekend as this high
moves east to new england and southerly flow develops ahead of
deep trof and sfc low movg across the wrn conus. Latest ecmwf is
more progressive with this trof than the 00z gfs, but prefer the
ladder given amplified pattern and potential for far wrn atlantic
tropical cyclones in this timeframe. Thus, no changes made to
superblend initialized dry pops for labor day.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Main concern will once again be potential for patchy fog/stratus
development early this morning (07-13z). However, coverage/depth
will likely be more limited when compared to yesterday, especially
at KFWA where some drier low level air has settled in. Mainly
dry/VFR otherwise with light winds, though there does remain a
very low chance for iso-sct storms to briefly impact KSBN today
(after 12z) and KFWA by mid-late afternoon. Coverage/point chances
remain too low for a VCTS/TSRA mention attm.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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