069
FXUS63 KIWX 110830
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
430 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief showers ending early today

- Cool today, warmer and dry Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms this upcoming work
  week; best chances for rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A cold front was moving east across the area. There was up
virtually no instability or shear to work with, although upper
level jet support and some low level convergence was able to
sustain showers. Have removed thunder given the lack of support
for storms and no thunder observed. The showers should end
across northwest Ohio by 10 AM EDT followed by clearing. There
has been large social media interest with the solar storm and
subsequent Northern Lights visible across the area. The latest
forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center indices the
solar activity is expected to persist into Sunday. It looks like
skies will be favorable tonight to view any additional
activity.

A fairly large upper level trof like an impulse will drift east
and finally reach the forecast area about Tuesday. Overall
factors for severe storms are limited, although precipitable
water values will rise above 1.2 inches and hover in the 90th
percentile for this time of the year as the upper level system
arrives. Hydro concerns should be somewhat limited given the
advance state of vegetation and lack of a more favorable
backbuilding pattern. Locally heavy rainfall is still likely
along with rises on several rivers. The GFES ensembles favor
some rivers returning above minor flood stage, but overall flood
and hydro impacts appear limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the duration of this TAF cycle.
However, before about 14z Sat there will be chances of rain
showers for both TAF sites. KSBN may see a thunderstorm at the
onset of the cold front arrival. After 14z Sat, the system will
continue moving eastward and light rain chances will have
diminished across the TAF sites. Periods of gusty northwesterly
winds in the wake of the front. Wind gusts will be as high as
25 kts. Gusty winds will trend lighter after 00z Sun.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen