Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 250009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
809 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 801 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Expect a couple more days of dry and warm weather for the region.
As a frontal system approaches midweek, the chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase, with the best chance Wednesday
night into Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and in the upper
70s to lower 80s on Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Short term remains quiet with closed upper low over SE CONUS
beginning to slowly lift northeast. Weak high pressure will still
be over our area this period but models showing substantial
increase in low level moisture tonight. This may lead to some
increased cloudiness overnight into Tuesday morning. Have
increased sky cover to at least partly cloudy but atmosphere
initially very dry and models may be a bit overly aggressive with


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A very active long term period expected with numerous strong waves
expected to cross the region and a wavy front providing low level
focus. As previously noted eastern closed low aiding in slowing down
arrival of first and successive systems and have followed that trend
for latest forecast. Sharp long wave trough will pull abundant Gulf
moisture northward and should see pwats increase substantially.
Another deep and sharp trough expected this weekend. Timing and
strength of waves remain uncertain given amplitude of flow so
followed inherited blends as best as possible with collaboration
but this yields rather high pops for much of the long term period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 807 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Primarily anticipate VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Veering low level flow to tap into a bit richer low level moisture
source poised over the mid Atlantic and reaching westward to the
middle Ohio Valley. Still consider NAM profiles overdone in this
regard and maintain VFR for now.




SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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