Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 150017
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS FAST AS LOW CLOUDS BEGAN TO MIX OUT...DIURNAL CU ERUPTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THESE HAVE BEEN STEADILY ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD END UP
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS
WAVE...CURRENTLY DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z MONDAY. BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH AND NW PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
THAT PHASES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN IN SE AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS HIGH LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS NO HIGHER THAN LIKELY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND NOT AN OVERLY DYNAMIC OR
MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS WILL BE
TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...ESPECIALLY NW...REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT FAR NW WHERE FASTER CLOUD
AND RAIN ARRIVAL WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WX EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL UNDER A SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD. THIS TROUGHING RELAXES
LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING
TREND. ASSOCIATED WAA SURGE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LLJ IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO QUESTION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/DEPTH OF WAVE AT THIS FCST RANGE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

INCREASING MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS NORTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TIMED LOW END VFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAFL INTO BOTH
KSBN/KFWA ABOUT 18/20 UTC RESPECTIVELY...FOLLOWED BY FROPA/SFC
WIND SHIFT AND CIGS NEAR/JUST ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
TOWARDS END OF FCST PD. SHOULD AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF RAFL
BECOME GREATER...POST FRONTAL CIGS COULD DIP LOWER. ALSO...SOME
INITIAL CONCERN THAT BR/FG ISSUES COULD ARISE IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS...CLOSER TO 09-12 UTC TUE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.