Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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538
FXUS63 KIWX 131047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
547 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID TEENS TODAY AND NEAR 20 ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
FALL TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH LIGHTER
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW
CHANCES RETURN LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MULTIBANDED/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SET UP NICELY OVERNIGHT
IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI. HOWEVER...IMPACTS AND COVERAGE/INTENSITY
WILL GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME TODAY AS SUBTLE LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING GETS STRIPPED AWAY, DRY/COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED, AND CYCLONIC FLOW DIMINISHES WITH APPROACH OF A SFC
ANTICYCLONE. WITH THAT SAID WILL HOLD ONTO HEADLINES (EXCEPT FOR ST
JOE MI) TODAY IN FAVORED NW FLOW LAKE BELTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1-3", AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING IN THE MORNING, AND COLD
TEMPS. SFC HEATING AND EWD EXPANSION OF AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE LAYER SHOULD CAUSE ISO/SCT LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO SPREAD
WELL INLAND INTO NE IN/NW OH/SC LOWER MI LATER THIS AM/AFTN WITH A
QUICK COATING OF SNOW AT BEST. COLD THE MAIN STORY OTHERWISE WITH
HIGHS ~20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.

A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BEFORE CENTER OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVERSPREADS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT/CALM AND SKY COVER
DECREASES. AS A RESULT CONTINUED TO TREND BELOW RAW/MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...MORE NOTICEABLE IN AREAS WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXTENSION OF POLAR LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE MOVING
AWAY WHILE FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY WHILE MODEST ASCENT
SPREADS OVER THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. NOTHING TO REALLY WRITE HOME
ABOUT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MID FEBRUARY BUT LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS STILL
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO 20 TO 1 SO INFLATED SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE/QPF. EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS WHILE
UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
WILL COME TOGETHER...LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.

MODELS STILL INDICATE BULK OF MOISTURE AND PCPN WITH DEVELOPING EAST
COAST SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL STAY EAST OF OUR LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER...A COUPLE FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES
WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TAP TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
WILL BE A BRIEF SHOT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY FRIDAY. COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
PCPN AT ONSET THURSDAY NIGHT BUT QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE AND
LIFT AND VERY LOW PROBABILITIES WARRANTS KEEPING IT OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KSBN THIS MORNING (VIS MAINLY RANGING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR)...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO
SHRINKING BOUNDARY LAYER. KFWA LIKELY TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER....CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION ATTM. DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077-
     078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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