Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 030740
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD. POTENT SW TROUGH ROUNDING
SRN EXTENSION OF UPR LOW OVR HUDSON BAY QUICKLY ON THE WAY OUT
EARLY THIS AM. COMPOSITE OUTFLW/CDFNT JUST CLRG SRN CWA ATTM. THUS
W/LOSS OF BOTH FNTL FORCING AND ENSUING WK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING UPR WAVE...HIGHLY DOUBT POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONV DVLPMNT
ALG SECONDARY CDFNT DROPPING OUT OF THE UPR MIDWEST THIS AFTN...ESP
IN LIGHT OF SIG OVERTURNING THAT HAS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THUS WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF POPS/WX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PD. OTRWS TEMPS MUCH COOLER TDA COMPARED TO YDAS HOT TEMPS AS LL CAA
WRAPS SWD ESP THIS AFTN IN TANDEM W/PASSAGE OF SECONDARY CDFNT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET/SEASONABLY COOL WX WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DRIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC.
LARGE SCALE WNW FLOW REGIME ALOFT DEAMPLIFIES THEREAFTER WITH
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO THE OHIO/MID MS
VALLEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF A SFC FRONTAL WAVE MODELED TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY REGARDING TIMING/TRACK. AS A RESULT CONTINUED TO HOLD
POPS IN THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD OUTSIDE TRANSIENT MVFR RESTRICTION IN
TSRA INVOF KFWA THROUGH 07Z OR SO. OTRWS SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS ESP THIS
AFTN IN WAKE OF UPR TROUGH PASSAGE W/SKIES CLRG THIS AFTN TIMED
W/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER NEG THETA-E PUSH AS RIDGE BLDS INTO THE WRN OH
VALLEY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


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