Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
145 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Warmer temperatures will be in store beginning today as a warm
front approaches the region and brings a chance of showers with it
later tonight. Afternoon highs will range from the middle 40s in
south central Lower Michigan to the lower 50s into central
Indiana. On Friday high temperatures will be well into the 60s
with a few spots possibly reaching 70. The weekend outlook calls
for several chances for showers and temperatures above normal for
late March.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Sfc ridge centered over lower MI this aftn will drift off into
the ern lakes by Thu morning. Backside rtn flow slow to
materialize thus expect another very cold night with upper teens
likely northeast.

Rtn flow ramps appreciably Thu aftn as low level thermal ridge
across the srn plains advances northeast. Cold start in tandem with
increasing mid clouds in the aftn will limit aftn diurnals and will
side with lower bound of guidance temps. Inherited shra chcs
predicated on sufficient moisture return underneath overtopping
substantial elevated mixed layer. Brief window of forcing centered
around 00Z mainly north and west timed with nwd progression of warm
front otherwise mid level cap expected to hold. Thus will trim prior
aftn into evening pops and drop overnight mention.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Leading shortwave in incoming pacific wave train will wrap up and
cutoff over the central plains Fri. Multi-model trends continue to
slow with ewd progression into the wrn OH valley and see all the
more reason to back off gross wet biased blended solutions Fri night-
Sat morning. Nonetheless sys expected to open up/kick through the
ern lakes Sun in response to next sys hot on its heels ejecting out
through the central plains. Thus given adamant slower progression
aloft expect warmer temps will manifest within broad warm sector Fri-

Best shower chcs indicated Sat aftn/overnight ahead of sfc occlusion
and again Sun underneath upper low tracking overhead. Thereafter
upstream sys shears out through the OH valley Mon with showers Mon
aftn/evening. Beyond that predictability tanks with substantial
spread aloft seen in med range solutions with handling of additional
upstream energy propagating through the wrn/cntrl U.S. Little choice
other than to follow the blend here.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions assured through the forecast period. Crossover dewpoint
temperatures in the lower/middle teens to assure no issues with
morning br. Surface flow to veer/increase to SSE as surface ridge
moves into Delmarva by end of forecast period. As surface
temperatures cool low level flow ramps and becomes elevated by
late in the forecast period sufficient for LLWS inclusion at both





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