Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
253 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Scattered showers north of highway 30 will diminish this evening. A
rumble of thunder is possible along and east of interstate 69 this
afternoon. Otherwise skies will partially clear overnight with dense
fog likely west of state route 5 late. Lows 60 to 65.

Dry and warmer weather follows for Wednesday with highs in the low
to mid 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Pesky upper low over wrn Starke county has moved little through this
morning and will only slowly weaken newd into srn MI by this
evening. Trailing sfc trough and some weak sfc based instability
will yield greatest coverage of shra/thunder rumble this aftn
along/east of I69.

Otherwise upstream look across IL suggests partial clearing will
develop esp wrn half overnight and given widespread significant
rainfall early this morning and no appreciable advective change in
airmass expect dense fog will likely result late tonight. Will keep
close to prior gridded mention.

Subsidence behind departing trough and increasing swrly flow by late
morning will scour any remain fog/low clouds. Given insolation and
beginning of upper ridge amplification by aftn expect quite warm
temps... marking what looks to be a very warm long term period.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This period will be characterized by unseasonable warm and dryness
as blocking ridge expands across the Great Lakes upstream of wrn
Atlantic tag team of Hurricanes Jose and Maria. In fact upper ridge
exceeding 590 dm is seen in several model solutions this aftn
suggests some near record temps possible. Given strong/tight model
based concensus of both upper ridge intensity and placement will
thus drop any/all fallacious pop chances throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tricky short term period owing to pesky stalled upper low over
northwest IN. Near term increase in shra activity expected and esp
invof KFWA terminal where some marginal sfc based instability had
developed yet will diminish quickly by evening as upper sys slowly
lifts out.

Thereafter at least partial clearing expected to follow overnight
with dense fog development likely esp wwd including the KSBN
terminal. Will hold with prior LIFR mentions at both sites late





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