Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 141932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 228 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

More seasonable temperatures will arrive behind a cold front
tonight along with a few flurries or light snow showers,
espeically closer to Lake Michigan. Warmer temperatures will surge
back in starting Friday with highs well into the 50s and even 60s
in the offing for this weekend into next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon into
this evening, bringing temperatures back closer to reality for mid
February. Clouds will increase along and behind the front and
linger through the period. Have added a mention of flurries behind
the front where limited lift and very shallow low level moisture
could squeeze out a few snow flakes. Very small potential that ice
growth may not occur and a brief period of freezing drizzle could
ensue. For now keeping it simple and deferring to eve shift.

Lake effect flurries/light snow showers are possible closer to the
lake as marginal delta t`s and meager moisture profiles limit any
accumulation. Lows will bottom out in the middle to upper 20s
with only minimal recovery into the lower to maybe middle 30s


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Weak disturbance will be passing through the NW flow to bring
increased clouds, but rather lackluster moisture and lift Weds ngt
warranting little more than a slight chance mention of snow

Increasing southerly flow will setup starting Friday and
especially this weekend/early next week resulting in well above
normal, possibly record breaking highs in some areas with 60s
quite possible. Rain chances increase towards the middle of next
week, but issues abound on timing, amount and duration of rain.
Majority of offices have remained rather subdued with pops lending
to the low confidence shown in models lately. Will lower pops
against Superblend of models to high chc for the time being.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

West-southwest flow and VFR conditions will continue this
afternoon in advance of next cold front. Gradient will remain
fairly strong this afternoon but shallow mixing heights should
limit gusts to the 20 to 25 knot range. Cold front will track
across the terminals this evening with wind shift to the west
northwest and renewed gusts to around 20 knots. A period of higher
gusts closer to 25 knots will be possible tonight, especially in
association with surge of stronger pressure rises behind the cold
front. Sct snow showers/flurries will be possible late evening
into Wednesday morning with some lake response expected but will
defer to later forecasts/amendments to potentially narrow down
more favored time period for SHSN mention. Gusty winds to remain
through the period with good mixing and steep low level lapse
rates persisting into Wednesday. Will maintain trend to MVFR cigs
just above fuel alternate criteria, although some potential exists
for a period of cigs dipping below 2k feet late tonight at KSBN.


LM...Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through late tonight for



LONG TERM...Fisher

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