Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 141053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...MORE SUNSHINE TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE CONTINUING TO BE PESKY LOW CLOUD EVOLUTION THIS MORNING.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE PROFILES AND
RELATIVELY HIGH CROSSOVER TEMPS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z. SATELLITE/SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN INDICATING EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COINCIDES WITH AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
GREATER 850 HPA DEW POINTS. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO PROMOTE WEAK DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND AN EAST/NORTHEAST MIGRATION OF THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS. THUS...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TODAY
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.

CORE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THAT WILL PROMOTE DECENT RADIATIONAL-COOLING INDUCED TEMPERATURE
DROPS THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN BROAD MID LEVEL WAA ZONE IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF
CONUS. CURRENT THINKING IS MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS
MIN T FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MARGINAL...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.  KEPT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT
THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATE IN THE PERIOD OF THE GFS IS
MARGINAL...AND OF THE ECMWF IS POOR CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...SO WAS HESITANT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN
EVEN IN THE LIGHT OF ALL/BLEND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXPANDING VFR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA HAS LIMITED FOG
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE ONSET OF THE 12Z TAFS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO GRADUALLY ADVECT
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE. WEAK GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HYDROLAPSE PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
PATCHY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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