Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041719
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
119 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS
WELL INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND CERTAINLY
DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT STILL COOLER
CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO EARLY AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND RAP...SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR
AND RADAR MOSAIC...INDICATE A PERIOD OF PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT. PIVOTING DEFORMATION AXIS
APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. WOULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE IN OUR FAR EAST BUT NOTHING OBSERVED SO FAR AND
COLDER AIR IS PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...FURTHER
LIMITING ALREADY PALTRY INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE
BASE OF THE TROF. THIS IS COMBINING WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY TODAY...BRINGING 100M HEIGHT FALLS
AND -26C COLD POOL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT NON-DIURNAL EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMP
IN WESTERN CWA WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING
AND STRONG CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL HAVE TEMPS
STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. PRECIP LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LOW WANES AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC. RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AND LEAD TO GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS
WARM BACK INTO THE 70S. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS DETACHED TO THE NORTH AND
LOW LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS AS FRONT TAKES ON EAST/WEST ORIENTATION
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT WILL ALSO BE LACKING IN MOISTURE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP DEVELOPING AND WILL CUT POPS
FROM SUPERBLEND TO SMALL CHANCE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING RESULTING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE OUR AREA DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLNS HANDLING
UPPER LOW BUT AGREEMENT CAN BE FOUND WITH A SLOWER TREND FOR
BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
SUPERBLEND POPS AS WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

CIGS HAVE JUST LIFTED TO MVFR AT KSBN AND EXPECT MVFR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT BACK SOUTHWARD
LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IMPACTING PRIMARILY KSBN AFTER
21Z AS EASTWARD EXTENT IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES
CIGS TO DROP BACK INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS SFC TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND
CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER/AGD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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