Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 031005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
505 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Issued at 455 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Clouds will persist today. Patchy drizzle with maybe a few snow
flurries will end this morning. Cloudy skies and cool temperatures
can be expected today with highs in the upper 30s. Wet snow is
possible Sunday, possibly mixed with rain at times. Some light
snow accumulations may occur; however, travel issues are not


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 456 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

A sprinkle or flurry is possible early today as clouds continue to
linger over the area under the base of a low but substantial
subsidence inversion. Otherwise, conditions should remain dry today
and tonight with light winds as a high pressure area moves across
the area.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 456 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Active weather will accompany the first full week of December as up
to 4 systems bring a variety of weather to the area. An upper level
trof will move across the Great Lakes region and bring a rain and
snow mix Sunday. Low level thermal fields are marginal for snow
accumulation; however light snow accumulations up to an inch are
likely on mainly grassy areas especially over far southern Lower
Michigan into northern Indiana by Sunday evening. Travel issues
appear minimal with relatively warm low level temperatures. A second
system will closely follow the path of the Sunday system with a good
chance for rain Tuesday. This system will be an ejecting system in
the southern stream. The forecast area should be on the northwest
fringe of this system with the best chance of rain from Portland to
Lima. A brief period of a wintry mix is possible at the onset of
precipitation Monday night and early Tuesday; however, little if any
winter weather hazards are expected at this time for this second

A third system and later possibly a fourth will bring much colder
air to the area late this upcoming week. Model choice was difficult
given the GFS abandonment of a snow producing wave on the front
Wednesday night. The ECMWF still holds onto this system, bringing a
round of snow ahead of a very strong cold front. After coordination
with surrounding offices, have thrown out the model blend for
Wednesday night that favors the drier solutions and ignores the
previous forecast. Lake effect snow will develop as much colder air
spreads over the mild lake waters. Delta T values should eventually
reach close to 25C, so lake effect snow accumulations appear very
favorable at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 132 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2016

No sensible wx concerns this period as moist cyclonic flow remains
entrenched across the Great Lakes. Primarily low end vfr cigs will
dominate but transient high end mvfr cigs again possible invof KSBN
Sat am timed with greater lake based moisture flux within srn
periphery of decaying low level thermal trough.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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