Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS63 KIWX 122313
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
713 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Cloudy skies are expected to continue through tonight into early
Friday. Skies will become partly sunny on Friday and it will be
warmer with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Showers and perhaps
even a few thunderstorms will move into far northwest Indiana and
Michigan late Friday night into Saturday, and into the remainder of
the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs on
Saturday will be unseasonably warm into the mid to upper 70s. Cooler
and drier air will filter into the region later Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Strong subsidence inversion under shortwave ridge has locked in
moist near surface layer. Depth of this moist layer per latest AMDAR
soundings 1-2 km deep suggesting extensive low stratus deck will
remain in place into tonight. A weak sfc trough draped from sw OH
wnw to central IL will lift north through the area later tonight
into Friday morning. Could see some patchy fog/drizzle in advance
and along this feature as it moves through, though coverage should
be limited with most locations remaining dry. Warm advection and
expected mix out of low clouds in wake of weak trough (from sw to
ne) in the morning/early afternoon should afford a warmer Friday
as low-mid level flow veers more southerly.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A relatively potent shortwave trough is still on track to work west
to east across the US this weekend in progressive pattern, with the
associated deepening sfc cyclone taking a Central Plains to Northern
Great Lakes track by Saturday night/Sunday morning per latest model
consensus. Excellent moisture return/convergence within downstream
LLJ core will likely allow shower/embedded thunder coverage to
blossom from Iowa east-northeast into the lower-central Great Lakes
by later Friday night-Saturday. This strengthening baroclinic zone
will be the focus for higher PoPs during this time into our nw IN
and sw Lower MI zones, while ne IN/nw OH remains dry and
unseasonable mild within a well mixed warm sector. Rainfall
totals in excess of a half inch will be possible in sw Lower MI,
with higher amounts just north from the IL/WI border into central
Lower MI.

Trailing cold front will work through later Saturday night/Sunday
morning with additional shower chances. Transient/brief shot of
cooler/drier/seasonable air then follows into early next week as
high pressure builds in wake of trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Have maintained MVFR cigs/vsbys into Fri morning with uncertainty
on impacts of lingering low level moisture. Cigs heights have been
slowly edging up, higher than previously forecasted. Therefore
somewhat optimistic for only minor changes in cigs/vsbys but not
enough to send to IFR at this time. Will monitor trends for
amendments.

Skies should slowly start to clear from SW to NE with both sites
seeing VFR conditions hopefully by late Fri morning into the
afternoon hours as moisture is finally mixed out.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.