Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270542
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
142 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

An upper level disturbance will exit the region early this morning
allowing a ridge of high pressure to move in from the west. This
high pressure will provide dry conditions and continued below
normal temperatures today and tonight. As the high pressure
system moves east Wednesday, southerly winds will develop over our
area leading to a little warmer and more humid conditions. A
frontal system will drop slowly southeast across our area late
this week bringing a few periods of showers and thunderstorms from
Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Isolated showers early this afternoon should expand in coverage
with daytime heating along a weak upper level trof in the area of
very cold temperatures aloft. Isolated thunder is also possible as
conditions continue to destabilize later today. More showers are
possible farther south, basically south of a line from Winamac to
Ft Wayne, associated with the left exit region of an upper level
speed max that should help enhance showers and isolated storms.
There is not much moisture available, so the activity will
decrease rapidly after sunset. Conditions should be dry tonight
through Wednesday as an area of high pressure moves over the
region. Temperatures should drop to near 50 tonight and in the 50s
Tuesday night as the airmass modifies.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The pattern will become active as the main upper level trof moves
northeast and the flow becomes more zonal. This will set the
stage for a couple of rounds of showers and storms during the
latter half the week. Favored the GFS with the most active time
from Wednesday evening into Friday night. Given the high values of
precipitable water approaching 2 inches, heavy rain is possible
during this period as impulses move through the large scale
pattern. Lingering storms are possible early Saturday; however,
dry conditions should return Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Upper level low across far southeast Lower Michigan will continue
to depart to the east early this morning, setting up large scale
synoptic subsidence for most of this forecast valid period. Low
level anticyclone across the mid MS Valley will become centered
across the Ohio Valley later today. This will weaken the gradient
and allow winds to slightly back more westerly later this
afternoon. Peak afternoon should gusts into the 10 to 15 knot
range are expected this afternoon. Winds to diminish this evening
and become light south-southwesterly toward end of this period as
the low level anticyclone shifts off to the east.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 3 AM CDT early this morning for
     INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/JT
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili


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